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Batting your best hitter 2nd? Good idea even though it goes against convention?
Posted on 4/14/14 at 8:56 am
Posted on 4/14/14 at 8:56 am
Is this a new trend that most teams will start doing? I know this isn't a new idea, but it is finally starting to gain traction. The A's did it last year with Donaldson. The Yanks/Twins have also tinkered with it last year.The Giants are now doing it this year with Belt/Pence. The Angels do it with Trout, though that's probably has more to do with Pujols and Hamilton than them actually being smart.
Here's a few articles:
MLB.com Matthew Leach
SI, I hate them, but I like this article.
While I don't believe a shite hitter should bat 2nd (looking at you Dusty Baker), I'm not so sure your best hitter should bat 2nd either, unless you're in the AL. They point to a player getting 18 more plate appearances, but that advantage is actually negligible if he takes 2 days off, which is less than most players take off.
I don't really know the numbers, but it seems significant RBI chances are taken away if you're in the NL. Plus, if it's a guy like Miggy Cabrera or Joey Votto who walks a lot, wouldn't they clog the bases if they have guys below them with less power?
Here's a few articles:
MLB.com Matthew Leach
quote:
The No. 2 hitter, according to the great "The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball," is one of the most essential spots in the lineup. It comes up with about as many RBI chances as the No. 3 spot, but obviously comes up more often.
quote:
Gardenhire pointed to an old philosophy that Tony La Russa was fond of: having power early in the lineup to get a pitcher's attention. La Russa often referred to having "damage" in the two-spot, a place where he put hitters such as Jim Edmonds and Larry Walker. Those hitters, of course, were both also high-OBP men, as are Cano and Mauer.
SI, I hate them, but I like this article.
quote:
a diverse Reds squad jets coast-to-coast on nonsmoking flights, they're still batting their best hitter third—and it's costing them runs. Joey Votto is the game's greatest offensive force, with an absurd .469 OBP since the start of 2012. He's at .460 this year, including. 492 in May. Cincinnati's two hole (usually occupied by shortstop Zack Cozart) has a .246/.271/.382 line in '13, but every day Dusty Baker sets a lineup that places a weak hitter ahead of his best player.
quote:
But most significant, it gets the best hitter more at bats. Each lineup spot gets about 18 extra plate appearances a season more than the spot below it, so moving up a Votto is like squeezing four extra games a year out of him
While I don't believe a shite hitter should bat 2nd (looking at you Dusty Baker), I'm not so sure your best hitter should bat 2nd either, unless you're in the AL. They point to a player getting 18 more plate appearances, but that advantage is actually negligible if he takes 2 days off, which is less than most players take off.
I don't really know the numbers, but it seems significant RBI chances are taken away if you're in the NL. Plus, if it's a guy like Miggy Cabrera or Joey Votto who walks a lot, wouldn't they clog the bases if they have guys below them with less power?
This post was edited on 4/14/14 at 9:00 am
5
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:03 am to Moustache
quote:
They point to a player getting 18 more plate appearances, but that advantage is actually negligible if he takes 2 days off, which is less than most players take off.
Don't you think they factor in games missed when they did their calculations? I'm sure this was a long term study.
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:05 am to Moustache
quote:
They point to a player getting 18 more plate appearances, but that advantage is actually negligible if he takes 2 days off,
wat?
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:08 am to RonFNSwanson
quote:
Don't you think they factor in games missed when they did their calculations? I'm sure this was a long term study.
True. Plus, I guess they would take games off whether they bat 2nd or 3rd.
In the NL, I just can't see how it doesn't get you less RBI opportunities. Trout has failed to reach 100 RBIs batting 2nd. Yet, Pujols who batted 3rd in 2012 got 100 RBIS while hitting significantly less than Trout.
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:11 am to Moustache
quote:
In the NL, I just can't see how it doesn't get you less RBI opportunities. Trout has failed to reach 100 RBIs batting 2nd. Yet, Pujols who batted 3rd in 2012 got 100 RBIS while hitting significantly less than Trout.
I guess it just depends on who you have in front of you getting on base. But I would want my best hitter getting as many chances as possible.
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:22 am to RonFNSwanson
quote:
I guess it just depends on who you have in front of you getting on base. But I would want my best hitter getting as many chances as possible.
True, but you also want your best hitter to get the opportunity to create runs for your team too. If you're batting 3rd, that's an opportunity for 2 people in front of you to get on in the 1st and an opportunity for 3 people to be on base for you regularly the rest of the game.
If you bat 2nd in the NL, the pitcher is almost always an out, thus lowering your chances.
Who's the last 2 hole hitter to get 100 RBIs? I"m sure it can be done, but even Trout, with as good a year as he had last year, didn't do it.
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:25 am to Moustache
Braves do it and it works great!
/s
/s
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:26 am to Moustache
I heard about this many years ago. Florida State has put there best hitter in the 2 hole many times. Barbe high school many times bats their best hitter leadoff.
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:28 am to Choupique19
Votto has been batting second for the past two games, btw.
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:28 am to beaver
quote:
Braves do it and it works great!
Braves problem is they don't have a leadoff.
I truly believe they'd be much more successful rolling with:
1. Schafer
2. Heyward
3. Freeman
4. Johnson
5. Upton
6. Uggla
7. Simmons
8. Gattis
Freeman should bat 3rd. He is missing out on a lot of at bats when he's 4th. Johnson makes good line drive contact, which is great for driving in runs. Heyward provides you speed on the bases if Schafer fails to get on. I put simmons between uggla/Gattis so as not to have 2 slow arse people on base in front of the 8 hole hitter.
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:28 am to Moustache
He's only batting 2nd one inning for sure. The other thing to consider is in the 9th inning you're usually sending up 8,9,1 or 9,1,2
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:30 am to reddman
quote:
Votto has been batting second for the past two games, btw.
Probably not a bad idea. The Reds really don't have anyone else who hits for enough average to bat 2nd IMO. Plus, since all Votto does is walk, he certainly doesn't drive in runs like you want a 3/4 hitter to do.
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:32 am to SaintCajun
quote:
He's only batting 2nd one inning for sure. The other thing to consider is in the 9th inning you're usually sending up 8,9,1 or 9,1,2
True. But it still doesn't explain why a hitter, even as good as Trout couldn't reach 100 RBIs from the 2 hole and Pujols, with a significantly worse season in '12, reached 100 rbis from the 3 hole. I haven't seen a study point to specific rbi opportunities for 2 hole vs. 3 hole. Just that they're "about as many".
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:34 am to Moustache
it sounds like a good idea in the post-steroid/BBCOR era...
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:34 am to Moustache
People in Cincy have been pushing for it for two years now. Dusty obviously wasnt going to do it. Price thinks a little more outside the box though, and was hoping to give the offense a spark.
They scored 12 runs yesterday, which is 25% of their total runs scored for the year. Obviously, that switch didnt cause 12 runs to happen, but im curious to see if Price stays with it.
They scored 12 runs yesterday, which is 25% of their total runs scored for the year. Obviously, that switch didnt cause 12 runs to happen, but im curious to see if Price stays with it.
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:38 am to reddman
quote:
hey scored 12 runs yesterday, which is 25% of their total runs scored for the year. Obviously, that switch didnt cause 12 runs to happen, but im curious to see if Price stays with it.
He should. I really like Phillips in the 3 hole. Bruce, when he gets out of his retard slump should hit 4th IMO with Frazier hitting 5th for R/L balance. If Hamilton can post at least a .300 OBP, this lineup could work for the reds. I do worry about Hamilton posting an OBP of around .280, which isn't good enough to leave him at leadoff. In that case, I guess Phillips will have to go to leadoff?
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:39 am to chalmetteowl
quote:
it sounds like a good idea in the post-steroid/BBCOR era...
MLB still hits a decent amount of HRs. It's nothing like the bunt/error/pray for a walk frick fest that college baseball has become.
Posted on 4/14/14 at 9:56 am to Moustache
quote:
Yet, Pujols who batted 3rd in 2012 got 100 RBIS while hitting significantly less than Trout.
Because he had Trout hitting in front of him. Same reason Brandon Phillips knocked in 100 last year. Not because is a particularly great hitter, but because he has an on base monster in front of him.
This post was edited on 4/14/14 at 9:57 am
Posted on 4/14/14 at 10:03 am to The Seaward
quote:
Because he had Trout hitting in front of him. Same reason Brandon Phillips knocked in 100 last year. Not because is a particularly great hitter, but because he has an on base monster in front of him.
Trout had Callaspo, Aybar, and Kendrick batting in front of him 8,9,1. All of those guys had an OBP of over .320. It seems if he batted 3rd behind Torii Hunter, who had an obp of .365, Trout would've gotten more RBI's and probably been worth more to his team. He certainly would've driven them in better than Pujols.
Posted on 4/14/14 at 10:11 am to Moustache
.320 OBP isn’t that great. I do agree that Trout would likely knock in more runs hitting third, but that isn’t really the goal. I think you can make a strong argument your team will score more runs hitting him second to maximize his at-bats. I think the difference is likely pretty marginal and as long as he is in the top 3, you should be fine though.
Now why Matt Williams is batting Harper 6th and 7th and Freddy Gonzales is hitting BJ Upton 2nd, I will never understand.
Now why Matt Williams is batting Harper 6th and 7th and Freddy Gonzales is hitting BJ Upton 2nd, I will never understand.
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