Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 | Page 3 | TigerDroppings.com
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maclauer
Georgia Fan
Member since Nov 2011
4071 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30

That was one site's review. My pick is based on thinking Tennessee can make it a close, sloppy game. I think 7 is too many points for a young team like that to be giving against a quality team, even if it at home. GTown has the advantage in the frontcourt with Whittington and Porter, so UT will be toast if Stokes gets into foul trouble.


dgtiger3
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
5118 posts
Online

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
NBA
Cavaliers +9
Kings +1.5

College Hoops
Georgia State -1
South Florida -3.5
Eastern Washington +5

Good Luck Tonight Guys


HoLeInOnEr05
North Carolina Fan
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
15725 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
You run a system for bball too?


UltimateHog
Wake Forest Fan
Springfield, MO
Member since Dec 2011
40547 posts
Online

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
I would take Arkansas at home over nearly anyone getting points.

We'll either pull the upset, or get blown out.

We did start 17-0 at home last year and whipped a Top 10 Michigan team, it's not like Syracuse will be anything different in BWA, but I still wouldn't touch it.

Inconsistent shooting against that zone and we could get blown out, but like I said, we're usually 'on' at home.

It went down to +7? When I went to bed it was +8.5.


dgtiger3
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
5118 posts
Online

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
quote:

You run a system for bball too?


Honestly basketball was the first sport that really got me into advanced statistics and predicting value of teams.

This early in the year I just look for value in the lines, I try to bet on the teams that I feel the line has been set to favor, Usually a team with a worse record, or coming off a bad shooting night or two, because it is generally a "what have you done for me lately" market.

I have found that if I focus on teams that play 10 points better at home than they do on the road you can really find some value, especially with so many teams in college hoops. I love fading those teams on the road when they are favored against a inferior opponent that team that also plays much better at home.



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dgtiger3
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
5118 posts
Online

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
quote:

I would take Arkansas at home over nearly anyone getting points.

We'll either pull the upset, or get blown out.

We did start 17-0 at home last year and whipped a Top 10 Michigan team, it's not like Syracuse will be anything different in BWA, but I still wouldn't touch it.

Inconsistent shooting against that zone and we could get blown out, but like I said, we're usually 'on' at home.

It went down to +7? When I went to bed it was +8.5.


There are lots of stats that back your claims as well. Out of the 345 Division 1 teams last season, Arkansas ranked #7 in Home Court Advantage, playing around 20 points better at home than they did on the road.

Only reason I am not on them tonight is the other numbers I follow have Syracuse as a vastly superior team, and they could get completely overmatched.

Goodluck.


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maclauer
Georgia Fan
Member since Nov 2011
4071 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
quote:

My pick is based on thinking Tennessee can make it a close, sloppy game

So far, so good with this prediction

What an ugly game so far.


TiggerWoods
Auburn Fan
Auburn
Member since Nov 2010
2659 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
Auburn under 142 1/2


maclauer
Georgia Fan
Member since Nov 2011
4071 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
Added live in-play: Ark TT under 74.5 for 1 unit


maclauer
Georgia Fan
Member since Nov 2011
4071 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
Another live in-play: Arkansas TT under 77.5 now, also 1 unit


TiggerWoods
Auburn Fan
Auburn
Member since Nov 2010
2659 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
Auburn under is not looking so hot


UltimateHog
Wake Forest Fan
Springfield, MO
Member since Dec 2011
40547 posts
Online

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
Auburn up on DePaul at half


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maclauer
Georgia Fan
Member since Nov 2011
4071 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
My worst nightmare. Both TTs lose and Ark doesn't cover


UltimateHog
Wake Forest Fan
Springfield, MO
Member since Dec 2011
40547 posts
Online

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
Lmao that FT with 2 seconds left fricked people that took Arkansas at +8.5.

Forgot about that. Ouch.

Don't even know why we fouled with 3 seconds left down 8. Rigged.


Billy Mays
Syracuse Fan
Member since Jan 2009
17959 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
Fullerton needs a miracle to cover -4.5 ...


Signature
LSU Fan
Omnipresent
Member since Sep 2005
6546 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
And Cal St Fullerton disappeared.


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UltimateHog
Wake Forest Fan
Springfield, MO
Member since Dec 2011
40547 posts
Online

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
Seriously? frick.

CSF was up by 7 at the half, I felt good.

They must be getting leveled in the 2nd half.


Billy Mays
Syracuse Fan
Member since Jan 2009
17959 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
Yeah they've only scored 24 points so far in the 2nd half.

Reminds me why laying points on bad/mediocre teams on the road isn't usually a great idea.

OT is the only way out of this one I'm afraid.


HoLeInOnEr05
North Carolina Fan
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
15725 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
Cuse ML hits!


UltimateHog
Wake Forest Fan
Springfield, MO
Member since Dec 2011
40547 posts
Online

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30
CSF goes down 77-75.

Wtf happened they hit a 3 to cut it to 2 with 5 seconds left, couldn't foul? Jesus.

Luckily I got talked into that one late and low balled it.


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