re: Average sports bettor smarter than the average fan?

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This never happens. Ohhh but but but the bookie just wants even money on both sides blah blah blah do you people realize how often a book/bookie has exactly even action on both sides of a game? Never. It literally never happens. Yea but if that's the case then they lay it off themselves to another bookie and that's how they make money they have no risk just more blah blah blah shut up. They do not. On just about every game they need a side. Every single one

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I know. Worked for the bookies in the UK for 6 years. I use that example to illuminate what's actually happening from the gambler's point of view. Whether the bookie makes or loses money is irrelevant from this perspective - it doesn't make the gambler win or lose any more, unless the bookie goes bankrupt.

If England ever win the soccer world cup, bookmakers will pay out billions. You can't lay that action off. However England are shite and it will never happen, and these major events where bookies cannot round their bookes are not only rare, but they're reasonable opportunities to accept a small loss - all businesses have costs for acquiring new customers

As for other stuff though, yes, bookies do in fact lay off with with other bookies - whether they get better odds is another matter, but yes of course they lay with each other. I can't comment specifically on Vegas, but if all the major and minor bookmakers in the UK can do it, why can't the small number clustered around one small strip?

Yes, there are many, many good and bad results for the bookmakers, in competitive events with only two outcomes it's more difficult to balance the books than say predicting the Superbowl winner preseason. But to say they need a side is utter ignorance. A run of good results may increase their profits slightly, but on a run of bad results they're still cashing in. The margins keep them in profit. The more bets they take, the more likely they are to be at their expected margins. All you're gambling on is variance, take the variance away and you can see what's actually happening. A roulette wheel on average (European Style) pays out 92% of what it takes in, because of the way it is designed. But it wouldn't exactly be very exciting if you simply walked up, paid $10 and received $9.20 in exchange, plus obviously no one would do this. The randomness hides the long term outcomes, then you add people's fallacious logic "oh it's been black 3 times next spin it'll definitely be red/black". Very rarely do bookies end up so over leveraged that they're effectively gambling against their customers in a way that would make anyone bat an eyelid. And let's assume customers have a good day, then what, where do you think they spend all the money they win? 97% of bookmakers customers are regulars.

The margins are referred to as overrounds. Overrounds are bigger the bigger the field and number of outcomes. Overrounds are what you're paying to play, effectively. They're the edge you have to beat to win, assuming you're picking at an above chance level. Multiply the overround together for each bet and you have the probability that you've lost to the bookmaker, as opposed to chance. This is why bookies LOVE parlays. Love them.

If you disagree, and you think you can gamble at above chance level and beat the margins, try it, start a spreadsheet, give yourself a million virtual dollars, and make a few thousand bets (sounds tough but theyre are over 270 NFL games a year including playoffs and preseason). Actually write down what you're winning and losing to allow for memory bias, increase the sample size to allow for better reliability, and gambling suddenly doesn't seem such a good idea.

Sorry if my reply comes off as arrogant, but I've sat ont he other side of the divide. I've seen each bet monitored customers place, and their P/L ratios on the month, the year and all time. There was only one type of customer that was consistently winning, the ones who had an uncanny habit of picking out results on random East European soccer teams nobody had ever heard of, or strings of high and low priced winners in horse racing. The bookmakers only let them back in so they know exactly which events are fixed.

And hey, I love gambling. But then I get excited about winning or losing a few dollars a week.

Well like I said, sorry if I come off as an arrogant dick, it's pent up frustration from wanting scream "what the frick are you doing? do you know how much money you've lost this year? you work at a fricking supermarket and you live with your mother. Re-think your fricking life" on so many occasions, but actually just saying "Yeah, they've been playing well recently, I think they're going to go on a run. Would you like a free coffee?" or such.