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11 Seeds in NCAA Tournament are 19-17 since 2014 Cntd....(3-1)so far this year (22-18) no
Posted on 3/19/24 at 9:17 am
Posted on 3/19/24 at 9:17 am
(#11 seeds are 22-18 since 2014 now- as of 5pm on 3.22)
1st round^
"Favorite value pick is the 11 seeds, who have gone 19-17 overall since 2014. The 11s that advance are then 26-32 in the second round against either the 3 or 14, creating a surprisingly frequent road into being an 11 seed in the Sweet 16. "I'd rather be an 11 than an 8," he says. "I think the path is better.""
------ "Illinois professor Sheldon Jacobson who has spent 20 years studying the NCAA tournament"
Link: LINK
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For Reference the 11 Seeds 1st and potential 2nd round matchups:
New Mexico St
1st: #11 New Mexico St vs #6 Clemson
2nd: #11 New Mexico St vs #3 Baylor(or #14 Colgate)
Oregon
1st: #11 Oregon vs #6 South Car
2nd: #11 Oregon vs #3 Creighton(or #14 Akron)
NC State
1st: #11 NC St vs #6 Texas Tech
2nd: #11 NC St vs #3 Kentucky(or #14 Oakland)
Duquesne
1st: #11 Duquesne vs #6 BYU
2nd: #11 Duquesne vs #3 Illinois(or #14 Morehead St)
Looking at the data provided as well as the matchups here for the 11 seeds, I dont think its crazy to assume that a few of these #11s have good chances to get out of the 1st round, and maybe even sneak past some #3s in the 2nd.
If there are any 14 seed upsets in the 1st, the 11s would then be a near lock to the Sweet 16.
Maybe I am being too optimistic, but I am curious if anyone is riding with any of these 11 seeds or do you think the data doesnt mean anything because **que the madness**?
1st round^
"Favorite value pick is the 11 seeds, who have gone 19-17 overall since 2014. The 11s that advance are then 26-32 in the second round against either the 3 or 14, creating a surprisingly frequent road into being an 11 seed in the Sweet 16. "I'd rather be an 11 than an 8," he says. "I think the path is better.""
------ "Illinois professor Sheldon Jacobson who has spent 20 years studying the NCAA tournament"
Link: LINK
--------------------------------------------------
For Reference the 11 Seeds 1st and potential 2nd round matchups:
New Mexico St
1st: #11 New Mexico St vs #6 Clemson
2nd: #11 New Mexico St vs #3 Baylor(or #14 Colgate)
Oregon
1st: #11 Oregon vs #6 South Car
2nd: #11 Oregon vs #3 Creighton(or #14 Akron)
NC State
1st: #11 NC St vs #6 Texas Tech
2nd: #11 NC St vs #3 Kentucky(or #14 Oakland)
Duquesne
1st: #11 Duquesne vs #6 BYU
2nd: #11 Duquesne vs #3 Illinois(or #14 Morehead St)
Looking at the data provided as well as the matchups here for the 11 seeds, I dont think its crazy to assume that a few of these #11s have good chances to get out of the 1st round, and maybe even sneak past some #3s in the 2nd.
If there are any 14 seed upsets in the 1st, the 11s would then be a near lock to the Sweet 16.
Maybe I am being too optimistic, but I am curious if anyone is riding with any of these 11 seeds or do you think the data doesnt mean anything because **que the madness**?
This post was edited on 3/22/24 at 5:04 pm
15
Posted on 3/19/24 at 9:20 am to theLSUdon17
Bodes well for me. I have 3 11 seeds advancing, with New Mexico in the sweet 16.
Of course, this means New Mexico is going to lose in round 1 and the lone 11 seed I have losing will be in the final 4.
Of course, this means New Mexico is going to lose in round 1 and the lone 11 seed I have losing will be in the final 4.
Posted on 3/19/24 at 9:30 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Already have NC State. Their big man is a load inside. Also like Oregon.
Posted on 3/19/24 at 9:31 am to mcspufftiger7
I have Oregon, NC State and NM advancing. With NM in the sweet 16.
Oregon and NC State are hot as hell. I am banking on them having one more in them. Then I bought the Big West hype. I think BYU is really good, so I wasn't putting them losing.
Oregon and NC State are hot as hell. I am banking on them having one more in them. Then I bought the Big West hype. I think BYU is really good, so I wasn't putting them losing.
This post was edited on 3/19/24 at 9:33 am
Posted on 3/19/24 at 9:40 am to theLSUdon17
quote:
New Mexico St
I've picked them for an upset many times over the years and they always seem to fall flat.
Posted on 3/19/24 at 9:41 am to Hold That Tiger 10
re: I have Oregon, NC State and NM advancing. With NM in the sweet 16.
--------------------------------------------------
I have Oregon in a tight one over SC, but think that one can go either way.
I also feel good about NM at least getting out the first and I agree I dont think Baylor is amazing so theres a shot there.
I wanted NC State but something is telling me tx tech is poised for a run. Either way, I think whoever wins that game has a great shot to beat Kentucky
--------------------------------------------------
I have Oregon in a tight one over SC, but think that one can go either way.
I also feel good about NM at least getting out the first and I agree I dont think Baylor is amazing so theres a shot there.
I wanted NC State but something is telling me tx tech is poised for a run. Either way, I think whoever wins that game has a great shot to beat Kentucky
Posted on 3/19/24 at 9:53 am to mcspufftiger7
Quote: Already have NC State. Their big man is a load inside. Also like Oregon.
------------------------------------------------
I like NC St a lot but Tx Tech is also one of those teams that I think has potential to beat anyone if theyre hot.
Tell me this: do you think NC State can beat Kentucky in R2?
I think Tx Tech can and I think thats why I am leaning that way in the 1st.
Either way I think Kentucky is going to have a tough time getting past the winner of this one.
------------------------------------------------
I like NC St a lot but Tx Tech is also one of those teams that I think has potential to beat anyone if theyre hot.
Tell me this: do you think NC State can beat Kentucky in R2?
I think Tx Tech can and I think thats why I am leaning that way in the 1st.
Either way I think Kentucky is going to have a tough time getting past the winner of this one.
Posted on 3/19/24 at 9:54 am to theLSUdon17
I have all excluding new mex
Posted on 3/19/24 at 10:14 am to theLSUdon17
When LSU made the final four in 86, they were the lowest seed ever to make it. Now it’s pretty common for the lower seeds to advance.
Posted on 3/19/24 at 10:16 am to theLSUdon17
6 seeds are often good teams with flaws that make them more prone to upsets. 11 seeds are often really good mid-majors or power conf. teams that can be really good at times but have been inconsistent.
If you look at the KenPom data New Mexico is a MUCH better team than an 11 seed. For context, they are ranked just behind (4) Kansas, only four spots behind (3) Kentucky and, most importantly, 11 spots ahead of their opponent (6) Clemson. That's why Clemson is actually a two point underdog!
South Carolina is another team whose record doesn't match with the predictive data. USC is ranked 49th. That's behind Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Ohio St, and Indiana St...who aren't in the Tournament. They are more in the range of where 8,9,10,11 seeds rest. Not 6 seeds. They are one of the lowest ranked power-conf. programs in the KenPom. They aren't exceptional at any aspect. But they just find ways to keep a game close and win...regardless of opponent. Particularly in close games.
The Pac 12 was doo-doo this season. But Oregon had enough talent to get by several teams. The question is what Oregon team shows up?
If you look at the KenPom data New Mexico is a MUCH better team than an 11 seed. For context, they are ranked just behind (4) Kansas, only four spots behind (3) Kentucky and, most importantly, 11 spots ahead of their opponent (6) Clemson. That's why Clemson is actually a two point underdog!
South Carolina is another team whose record doesn't match with the predictive data. USC is ranked 49th. That's behind Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Ohio St, and Indiana St...who aren't in the Tournament. They are more in the range of where 8,9,10,11 seeds rest. Not 6 seeds. They are one of the lowest ranked power-conf. programs in the KenPom. They aren't exceptional at any aspect. But they just find ways to keep a game close and win...regardless of opponent. Particularly in close games.
The Pac 12 was doo-doo this season. But Oregon had enough talent to get by several teams. The question is what Oregon team shows up?
Posted on 3/19/24 at 10:18 am to Septiger
quote:
When LSU made the final four in 86, they were the lowest seed ever to make it. Now it’s pretty common for the lower seeds to advance.
Still (tied) for the lowest seed to ever reach the Final Four.
Of course, LSU had a HUGE advantage of playing the first two games on their home court. 6th seed Purdue and 3rd seed Memphis St. were pissed about that. That run actually changed the tournament because soon after the rule was implemented that teams could not play any games on their home court.
Posted on 3/19/24 at 10:26 am to Alt26
quote:
Still (tied) for the lowest seed to ever reach the Final Four
I don’t remember the seed in 87 when LSU made it to the final 8 and blew the game against Indiana.
As a big LSU hoops fan , that loss was hard to take.
Posted on 3/19/24 at 10:46 am to Septiger
We were a 10 seed that year. And I'm still pissed that Knight got EVERY FLUCKING CALL after banging the phone mid 2nd half.
No way we lose if those refs had the balls to stand up to Knight.
And I RARELY am a refs beat us kinda guy. But it was blatantly obvious in that last 10 minutes.
No way we lose if those refs had the balls to stand up to Knight.
And I RARELY am a refs beat us kinda guy. But it was blatantly obvious in that last 10 minutes.
This post was edited on 3/19/24 at 10:47 am
Posted on 3/19/24 at 10:49 am to Alt26
I know you know this, but we then had to beat Georgia tech on basically their home court, and Kentucky in Catlanta to advance to the final four.
So it wasn't that easy of a path to get to Dallas that year once we left the PMAC.
So it wasn't that easy of a path to get to Dallas that year once we left the PMAC.
Posted on 3/19/24 at 10:57 am to theLSUdon17
New Mexico St and Oregon for me this year.
Posted on 3/19/24 at 11:07 am to tigahlovah
quote:
No way we lose if those refs had the balls to stand up to Knight.
I agree but LSU was up by 10 or 12 with about 5 minutes left and Brown slowed the game down when they hadn’t stopped LSU the whole second half .
Also if Irvin makes the free throws the game was over.
Posted on 3/19/24 at 11:45 am to tigahlovah
quote:
We were a 10 seed that year. And I'm still pissed that Knight got EVERY FLUCKING CALL after banging the phone mid 2nd half.
No way we lose if those refs had the balls to stand up to Knight.
And I RARELY am a refs beat us kinda guy. But it was blatantly obvious in that last 10 minutes.
Only game I have walked out of convinced we got jobbed by the refs.
GEAUX TIGERS!
Posted on 3/19/24 at 12:05 pm to Septiger
Oh, no doubt Dale contributed to that loss also. But there's no way if that game is called correctly we lose. And yep, poor Fess just has to hit one ft and we're in the final four. That's a lot of pressure on a true freshman.
It was so damned exilirating and confounding to grow up watching LSU basketball under Dale. We definitely should have won a title or two.
It was so damned exilirating and confounding to grow up watching LSU basketball under Dale. We definitely should have won a title or two.
Posted on 3/19/24 at 12:11 pm to theLSUdon17
I think South Carolina is in deep trouble.
Posted on 3/19/24 at 12:20 pm to facher08
quote:
New Mexico St
I've picked them for an upset many times over the years and they always seem to fall flat.
Well lucky for you they aren't in the tournament this year
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