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re: Timing the market
Posted on 4/12/14 at 5:30 pm to rintintin
Posted on 4/12/14 at 5:30 pm to rintintin
Good post and I agree with you that it is at least discussion worthy. This board has gotten stale since the buy and holders took over. And they have been right since 2008. But long term I think that market timing is possible. I had the good luck to listen to the right people and bail before the tech crash and in 2008. It's not impossible. Figuring out when to get back in is probably trickier than figuring out when to bail.
1
Posted on 4/13/14 at 6:59 pm to Tigris
I buy and hold. It has worked for Warren.
I can't even tell which the dow will hit first: 15,500 or 16,500. Or, will the S&P hit 1800 or 1900.
What's your take?
I can't even tell which the dow will hit first: 15,500 or 16,500. Or, will the S&P hit 1800 or 1900.
What's your take?
Posted on 4/13/14 at 8:45 pm to matthew25
It really depends on your goals. U can hold like warren, but most middle class people play it like a casino. I usually hold a stock around 3 to 4 months. I have a small amount of money that I can afford to lose and I play with it. I do have a pension and a 401k that I never touch.
Current positions...
$SHLD @33.90
$C @46.40
Current positions...
$SHLD @33.90
$C @46.40
Posted on 4/14/14 at 2:48 pm to rintintin
I have been successfully timing the market for the last three years. I use about 5% like your study with the S&P 500 Index and PPG stock. They are in a 401K plan and there is no fees or commissions associated with "Fund Transfers" to and from the "Stable Value" fund. (cash) I am not overly aggressive and have averaged about 9 transfers each way on a yearly basis.
For the years 2011 and 2012 my return was greater than two times all of the plan's funds. For 2013 I would have been much better by simply holding PPG stock but I still had a 12% return and collectively my IRAs which I keep inactive returned collectively 28%.
My second jump in for an amount typically equal to or slightly greater than the first purchase will be at approximately a 12% drop from the top. I know one day that I will be caught in a big dip and it will take time to recover but knowing that I will never have bought at the top it is something that I can live with.
I think that you are on to something. If you have discipline for strict guidelines and can avoid high broker's fees you can prosper with your strategy.
For the years 2011 and 2012 my return was greater than two times all of the plan's funds. For 2013 I would have been much better by simply holding PPG stock but I still had a 12% return and collectively my IRAs which I keep inactive returned collectively 28%.
My second jump in for an amount typically equal to or slightly greater than the first purchase will be at approximately a 12% drop from the top. I know one day that I will be caught in a big dip and it will take time to recover but knowing that I will never have bought at the top it is something that I can live with.
I think that you are on to something. If you have discipline for strict guidelines and can avoid high broker's fees you can prosper with your strategy.
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