It's also interesting that the ones that claim the academia spotlight are also the most in the dark when paradigms shift.
Most professors that write economics and finance textbooks are all intelligent and is where I got my financial and economic background from but I can't listen to them for financial wisdom b/c they represent the mainstream. You can take a moat approach, status quo, or a contrarion approach. I tend to take the latter b/c I am in a point in life where I can take more risks. Professors and the intelligentsia tend to take the first 2 with an emphasis on the 2nd option. Don't get me wrong, their methods are unfathomable during macro growth and booms, but we have not and will not exit the recessionary tentacles from 2008 for some time to come. Where do the masses follow? Well, they tend to follow option 2 in my opinion b/c that is where on the surface wisdom dictates and by 'god' they can't ever be wrong can they?
My posts aren't meant to sway you into my camp but I do think a multitude of ideas can only hearken and challenge your own views on how the world operates and how 'models' of expectations and human actors on localized levels interpret data and react in not so EMH ways.
Now, most on here would have called me crazy while the market was moving upwards almost hitting 13,000 and I decided to short it. I am still short the market and think it has another 5 to 10% to fall before the Fed really decides to do anything.
Do I base this on fundamentals? Partly. Do I base it on my 'models' of how the world operates. Mostly.
Now, the topic of QE is another day but as much as I disagree with it, I know how people will react and what the impacts will be.
This post was edited on 6/3 at 10:51 am