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Started By
Message
Sprint... target price to get in?
Posted on 10/10/11 at 10:30 am
Posted on 10/10/11 at 10:30 am
Any experts out there? This stock is banged up pretty good right now...
2
Posted on 10/10/11 at 11:42 am to Chad504boy
2.18 bump... effing tempting...effing tempting... need comfort to buy... 
Posted on 10/10/11 at 2:48 pm to Chad504boy
For asking the "experts", two research firms downgraded it today....thus the -10% drop in price.
LINK
So take that for what it's worth i guess
LINK
So take that for what it's worth i guess
Posted on 10/10/11 at 3:11 pm to Chad504boy
I've been thinking about this all day. Any insight from someone smarter than me would be fantastic. I want to get in but I'm not sure when.
Posted on 10/10/11 at 3:37 pm to GregYoureMyBoyBlue
Rational market takes hold as more people realize how utterly ridiculous they are getting pwned on their iPhone deal. I said it when it came out, they do not have the balance sheet or the cash flow for that kind of commitment, they will not exist as a standalone company within 2 years. Reaching into the future, my guess is regulators won't let ATT/VZW buy them, but someone like MetroPCS or US Cellular could pitch for a merger of equals, which would probably make sense in its own right.
Posted on 10/10/11 at 3:47 pm to kfizzle85
quote:Good point, I glanced at their earnings, and it doesn't look to promising.
Rational market takes hold as more people realize how utterly ridiculous they are getting pwned on their iPhone deal. I said it when it came out, they do not have the balance sheet or the cash flow for that kind of commitment, they will not exist as a standalone company within 2 years. Reaching into the future, my guess is regulators won't let ATT/VZW buy them, but someone like MetroPCS or US Cellular could pitch for a merger of equals, which would probably make sense in its own right.
Posted on 10/11/11 at 10:59 am to Tiger4
I looked at this more last night. I couldn't believe it was trading at a market cap of ~$6B, which is (among other things) a P/B of 0.5. That's pretty insane. The iphone deal is brutal, but the selloff yesterday that put them below book value is because they basically threw wimax (clearwire) under the bus. They also happen to own 50% of clearwire, which predictably was obliterated yesterday as well. The market is essentially pricing in a full write-off of that investment (about 3B, which is about the p/b difference atm).
Because they technically own less than 50 percent and its non-controlling, they account for CLR using the equity method. So, that means CLR net income (or in their case, net loss) flows through, which decreases the carrying value of the investment on the BS. However, because its equity method, they can ignore changes in fair value (which is readily available because CLR is a publicly traded company) if they deem them "other than temporary," which they have done up through Q2. It will be interesting to see whether or not they leave that sitting on the BS as is.
In reading an article yesterday, when you see that they're saying they're going to need to spend $10B on 4G upgrades instead of the previously predicted $3B because of switching to LTE, and thus subsequently going to need to raise a bunch of capital, AND you include whatever margin hit comes from the iphone subidization, AND you include the fact that they have three huge buckets of debt coming due in 2012 and 2013, AND the global economy is looking like it might keep credit kind of tight for the moment...well...
Because they technically own less than 50 percent and its non-controlling, they account for CLR using the equity method. So, that means CLR net income (or in their case, net loss) flows through, which decreases the carrying value of the investment on the BS. However, because its equity method, they can ignore changes in fair value (which is readily available because CLR is a publicly traded company) if they deem them "other than temporary," which they have done up through Q2. It will be interesting to see whether or not they leave that sitting on the BS as is.
In reading an article yesterday, when you see that they're saying they're going to need to spend $10B on 4G upgrades instead of the previously predicted $3B because of switching to LTE, and thus subsequently going to need to raise a bunch of capital, AND you include whatever margin hit comes from the iphone subidization, AND you include the fact that they have three huge buckets of debt coming due in 2012 and 2013, AND the global economy is looking like it might keep credit kind of tight for the moment...well...
This post was edited on 10/11/11 at 11:03 am
Posted on 10/11/11 at 11:03 am to kfizzle85
quote:
I looked at this more last night. I couldn't believe it was trading at a market cap of ~$6B, which is (among other things) a P/B of 0.5. That's pretty insane. The iphone deal is brutal, but the selloff yesterday that put them below book value is because they basically threw wimax (clearwire) under the bus. They also happen to own 50% of clearwire, which predictably was obliterated yesterday as well. The market is essentially pricing in a full write-off of that investment (about 3B, which is about the p/b difference atm).
Because they technically own less than 50 percent and its non-controlling, they account for CLR using the equity method. So, that means CLR net income (or in their case, net loss) flows through, which decreases the carrying value of the investment on the BS. However, because its equity method, they can ignore changes in fair value (which is readily available because CLR is a publicly traded company) if they deem them "other than temporary," which they have done up through Q2. It will be interesting to see whether or not they leave that sitting on the BS as is.
In reading an article yesterday, when you see that they're saying they're going to need to spend $10B on 4G upgrades instead of the previously predicted $3B because of switching to LTE, and thus subsequently going to need to raise a bunch of capital, AND you include whatever margin hit comes from the iphone subidization, AND you include the fact that they have three huge buckets of debt coming due in 2012 and 2013, AND the global economy is looking like it might keep credit kind of tight for the moment...well...
so................ buy or no buy?
Posted on 10/11/11 at 12:35 pm to Chad504boy
Even though I think their management is retarded and almost netflix-esque in their directionlessness, and even though they clearly have some serious financial issues to deal with on the near horizon, I would be surprised if someone didn't try and buy them, especially at such a low market cap. I'm not sure though, you'd need more detailed analysis on like a revenue/customer basis to figure out how much they might be worth to a willing buyer, as their pure financial structure would seem to deter almost anybody.
Posted on 10/11/11 at 12:40 pm to Chad504boy
This is from Morningstar - Premium Version website
Fair Value Estimate $4.50
Consider Buying $2.30
Consider Selling $7.90
Fair Value Estimate $4.50
Consider Buying $2.30
Consider Selling $7.90
Posted on 10/11/11 at 1:47 pm to joeygalloway9
The "fair value" number is essentially book value per share. I know you can do better than that morningstar.
Posted on 10/11/11 at 2:18 pm to kfizzle85
all i know is sprint is up 10% from the 2.18 mark yesterday.
Posted on 10/12/11 at 1:51 pm to Chad504boy
Yea hindsight is 20/20. I thought for certain that $2.10 was not its bottom.
Posted on 10/12/11 at 1:52 pm to AuburnTiger08
I've just come to the thinking when companies get these horrible news and effects... short term speaking there is usually a decent rebound to be had. (i ran a highly sophisticated analysis to form that conclusion)
Posted on 10/12/11 at 2:28 pm to AuburnTiger08
It definitely overreacted when management gave no guidance, so if your investing horizon is 7 hours, it was a missed opportunity. Long-term the picture has not changed one iota. Again, I'd buy it on the prospect of a future buyout, but I think the company's financial situation is completely awful.
Posted on 10/12/11 at 2:42 pm to kfizzle85
I was treating it as a quick turnaround gain. Horrible very bad news hits or your management teams acts like 3rd graders and your stock plummets. People wisen up and realize that there's no way Sprint can be valued at $2.10 a share and it goes back up. I just thought it would bottom a little more :/.
I only buy/hold dividend stocks :).
I only buy/hold dividend stocks :).
Posted on 10/12/11 at 2:54 pm to Chad504boy
I've come to the conclusion that if chad504boy asks about buying a stock, buy it as soon as possible. I've done this with, I believe Ford, Dow, and GE, and made a couple of grand doing it. 
Chad504boy.
Chad504boy.Posted on 10/12/11 at 2:56 pm to TulaneLSU
quote:
I've come to the conclusion that if chad504boy asks about buying a stock, buy it as soon as possible. I've done this with, I believe Ford, Dow, and GE, and made a couple of grand doing it. Chad504boy.
I don't even rely upon some mysterious person for my ideas.
Posted on 10/12/11 at 2:58 pm to Chad504boy
I think you're a pro who is trying to help us out. But you play like you don't have a clue with your innocent questions.
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