- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Peak gasoline/oil liquids demand information
Posted on 2/21/17 at 10:04 am
Posted on 2/21/17 at 10:04 am
Anyone have some good articles/thought pieces on peak gasoline demand? Had some pretty interesting discussions with some guys at work on this topic. Would like to read some more about this. Here are a couple of BP articles that give a brief overview on the topic.
BP on electric cars affecting gasoline demand
BP's 2017 energy demand outlook
This post was edited on 2/21/17 at 10:05 am
1
Posted on 2/21/17 at 11:41 am to barry
Until the infrastructure is there, you won't see a major thought-contemplating cliff fall in gasoline demand.
Energy density is still way off and will never be equal as far as power goes.
It currently takes 52 hours on a single bank 110-volt system, this is standard. 9 on a 240-volt single bank and 4.45 on a double charger 240 volt.
Find a supercharger station and it takes an hour...Hope your stopping for lunch.
I think as long as gasoline is under $3.00/gallon, people will still be going through gasoline/diesel.
Charging/range are still the main everyday problems, then every so many years you have to replace a $10,000-$12,000 battery.
Honestly, I'd put my money in natural gas over the next 15 years or so. It's easier to retrofit gas stations with CNG pumps and fill pads. And there is plenty of gas out there just sitting in reservoirs because oil companies don't make their money on nat. gas and shut in the well.
Energy density is still way off and will never be equal as far as power goes.
It currently takes 52 hours on a single bank 110-volt system, this is standard. 9 on a 240-volt single bank and 4.45 on a double charger 240 volt.
Find a supercharger station and it takes an hour...Hope your stopping for lunch.
I think as long as gasoline is under $3.00/gallon, people will still be going through gasoline/diesel.
Charging/range are still the main everyday problems, then every so many years you have to replace a $10,000-$12,000 battery.
Honestly, I'd put my money in natural gas over the next 15 years or so. It's easier to retrofit gas stations with CNG pumps and fill pads. And there is plenty of gas out there just sitting in reservoirs because oil companies don't make their money on nat. gas and shut in the well.
This post was edited on 2/21/17 at 11:47 am
Posted on 2/21/17 at 1:25 pm to MadtownTiger
quote:
Until the infrastructure is there, you won't see a major thought-contemplating cliff fall in gasoline demand.
My question and what we were talking about is what is that amount?
It didn't take a very large % reduction to send the O&G industry into its current recession.
I think the big unknown is the pace of development of energy storage technology.
quote:
Charging/range are still the main everyday problems
I think this is a psychological issue more than a pragmatic one. Also if autonomous vehicles and ride sharing become as big a deal as most think, range becomes less of an issue as its transfers the worry about this from the consumer to the business.
Posted on 2/21/17 at 11:15 pm to barry
Offshore still has a very important role to play but I'd imagine that arena will bear the brunt of the decline... longer term. My personal view is that you'll begin to see the industry begin to parallel what natural gas has become, such that they'll be able to turn a spigot pretty easily and require minimal service intensity/capacity utilization (see natty rig count vs. production over last decade). Some of the efficiency gains by operators have been downright obscene, and I believe the end game for that, when juxtaposed against a maturing/gradually declining industry, is much shorter cycles, and much more rapid response onshore to resource requirements.
That all said, it's going to be gradual. All sorts of puts and takes on buildout of EV infrastructure (especially in emerging markets), urbanization vs. suburbanization (differing views on what is bigger in future), autonomous vehicles, what emerging markets do, etc.
That all said, it's going to be gradual. All sorts of puts and takes on buildout of EV infrastructure (especially in emerging markets), urbanization vs. suburbanization (differing views on what is bigger in future), autonomous vehicles, what emerging markets do, etc.
Posted on 2/22/17 at 7:57 am to barry
quote:
It didn't take a very large % reduction to send the O&G industry into its current recession.
I think this aspect of the recession is a little overdrawn. I would put switching to EV with 10% of the issue. Think your 3 big issues that caused this recession.
Advancement in production techniques and standardization of equipment for onshore producers - leading to more hydrocarbon production/well, faster and cheaper start up of projects due to standardized equipment.
Higher refining capacity with most if not all new refiners switching to lighter basket domestic crude oil from shale patches - Leading to increased gasoline and distillate production.
Lack of storage expansion
quote:
I think the big unknown is the pace of development of energy storage technology.
This is the interesting part, I would like to see where this goes. I currently think they are pushing the charging/storage capacities of the Lithium batteries. We saw that with fires started from the batteries in the EV cars, although I think they have figured those problems out.
I read an article a while back about Lithium-oxygen batteries with incredible storage/charging rates.
quote:
I think this is a psychological issue more than a pragmatic one. Also if autonomous vehicles and ride sharing become as big a deal as most think, range becomes less of an issue as its transfers the worry about this from the consumer to the business.
Uber/Lyft/etc will definitely have an impact in city centers as far as gasoline demand goes. My take is on rural/suburban areas, I don't see any decrease here unless it's purely fuel economy based.
I believe the psychological aspect is something big to consider. Do people really want to have to wait for their car battery to fill? With any battery, proper operation is probably to drain it to nearly empty and then fully charge it.
There are other aspects for trucking...towing etc that play into people keeping their distillate/gasoline engines.
It's all a wait and see what they can do with EVs, especially replacing a 10-12000 battery every few years.
Posted on 2/22/17 at 10:23 am to MadtownTiger
quote:
I think this aspect of the recession is a little overdrawn. I would put switching to EV with 10% of the issue. Think your 3 big issues that caused this recession.
Sorry, I wasn't clear. I meant it didn't take much of a % reduction of production simply due to collapsing prices. Nothing to do with EV.
Posted on 2/22/17 at 7:12 pm to MadtownTiger
no CNG pumps needed with the gas to liquids process. well be running diesels
compact fusion technology may be getting closer after that, propel an aircraft for a year on a few bottles of hydrogen
compact fusion technology may be getting closer after that, propel an aircraft for a year on a few bottles of hydrogen
This post was edited on 2/22/17 at 7:19 pm
Page 1 of 1
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News