PDVSA and Venezuela likely to default in 2016

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Venezuela’s debt is the most expensive in the world to insure against non-payment using credit-default swaps, after the tumble of the price in oil, which makes up about 95 percent of the country’s export revenue, eroded its hard currency reserves. The International Monetary Fund predicts its economy will shrink 8 percent in 2016, while inflation rate will reach about 480 percent.

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Traders in the credit-default swaps market are pricing in a 60 percent probability that the country defaults in the next 12 months. Venezuela’s bonds are the worst-performing in the world over the past two years. So far this year they have returned 14 percent.

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