OT spin off: future of driller and oil services companies

looks pretty shite

I'm well established in my current role, but may have an opportunity for a raise with a similar job with an oil company. Again, I'd be in the corporate HQ. What I do has nothing to do with "oil" per se.

Just have a few reservations about the future of the industry as a whole.

Interesting. It's definitely a risk. The company I'm interested in is at least a little diversified so they've withstood the last few years.

Will just have to see if the compensation is worth the risk.

Again, what I do could be for any industry, so I was just curious if people were like, hell no, the future is doom and gloom for oil services or if people expect a rebound.

Without a war in the Middle East I don't expect a significant rebound for at least 3 to 5 years.

3-5 is a little long, say 2-4.

quote:

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Based on what? Supply still out stripping demand? What would cause that to change in a few years?

Less players because of bankruptcies, Mergers and acquisitions?

Just wondering what could turn the market around for the sevice companies.

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Purely macro outlook
1) Deeper OPEC Cuts not likely
2) Oil inventories are crazy high
3) USA is now a prominent swing producer-5000+DUCS
4) Trump is offloading some oil on the market to help pay for whatever bill he's going to pass
5) Trump is planning on allowing for new leases on federal land
6) china demand/growth has slowed down
7) Qatar may flood the gas market if we keep provoking them

Some potential positives
1) Qatar and Iran mess that Trump is getting us into
2) A lot of bipartisan support for a carbon tax but Trump isn't for it(puts the nail in the coffin for coal)

I see the oil market as a purgatory or better yet a seesaw, production/supply cuts will be circumvented by US, Libya or Iran if not one of the other major players.

Volatility is why oil & gas professionals are paid so well. I say go for it; if you get laid off next year you can always go back to your non-oil job.