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Nat gas is a commodity that is same price today as 60 years ago and half of 2000s price
Posted on 1/31/24 at 10:49 pm
Posted on 1/31/24 at 10:49 pm
Nat gas in early 2000's was $5 an mcf. Besides the 2022 jump, it mainly stays between $2-$3.30. That's the same price as the 1960s and 70s. It's almost half of what it used to be in early 2000s. This I realize is due to monster wells/frac optimization in the Haynesville and Marcellus where 25 MMcfd (25 million cubic ft a day of nat gas) is possible in first couple months of recent wells. 10 BCF EUR (estimated ultimate reserves) is now pretty easily attained on 1 mile laterals in the Haynesville. Same for Marcellus. Additionally, a good amount of US nat gas is being exported via LNG which would only raises nat gas prices as supply is leaving US. Still it stays low.
Why is oil not following suit? It has same advances in frac optimization. I'm not sure if oil is exporting at same rate as LNG is elsewhere from US. Additionally, nat gas is supposed to be cleaner than oil, so as we transition greener, the market is supposed to favor nat gas over oil creating more demand/higher price for nat gas.
Don't understand why nat gas is 50% what it used to be decades ago where as oil increases at a very very rough increase over time with inflation if averaged out.
I think nat gas might actually be same prices as even the 1940's and 50's as it is today.
Why is oil not following suit? It has same advances in frac optimization. I'm not sure if oil is exporting at same rate as LNG is elsewhere from US. Additionally, nat gas is supposed to be cleaner than oil, so as we transition greener, the market is supposed to favor nat gas over oil creating more demand/higher price for nat gas.
Don't understand why nat gas is 50% what it used to be decades ago where as oil increases at a very very rough increase over time with inflation if averaged out.
I think nat gas might actually be same prices as even the 1940's and 50's as it is today.
This post was edited on 1/31/24 at 10:55 pm
3
Posted on 1/31/24 at 11:05 pm to Saunson69
Storage. It seems like it could really be as simple as storage, or the lack thereof.
Posted on 1/31/24 at 11:07 pm to Saunson69
I don't know anything about it other than fracking has caused a wild amount of earthquakes all over Oklahoma. That's my only guess.
Posted on 1/31/24 at 11:08 pm to Saunson69
I could go into a long response….but I’ll save everyone the pain.
What I can do it guide you away from natural gas.
I have made a small fortune trading natural gas.
I have lost a fortune trading natural gas.
My counsel is to walk away and focus elsewhere. Avoid the pain I endured.
All that said, I expect a pop soon and will play the leveraged arena hoping to catch the wave!!
What I can do it guide you away from natural gas.
I have made a small fortune trading natural gas.
I have lost a fortune trading natural gas.
My counsel is to walk away and focus elsewhere. Avoid the pain I endured.
All that said, I expect a pop soon and will play the leveraged arena hoping to catch the wave!!
Posted on 1/31/24 at 11:09 pm to KillTheGophers
What stocks?
Posted on 1/31/24 at 11:28 pm to Billy Blanks
Edit
This post was edited on 2/1/24 at 5:42 am
Posted on 2/1/24 at 12:04 am to KillTheGophers
Yes, what can I buy on Vanguard/Fidelity in this space?
Posted on 2/1/24 at 8:55 am to Billy Blanks
Billy, I deleted my original post. I am not going to guide my online friends at TD down a dark road that is natural gas futures. Anyway, 99% of what I typed would not be understood by the regular citizen financial warrior. I was setting all up to fail or be overwhelmed.
I go the Canadian route most times with natural gas for straight stock plays but that is outside my main area of expertise.
There are many in the Alberta Stock Exchange that have been very volatile yet profitable. I warn you though, things can get dicey on that exchange with natural gas related companies.
Of course, there are some good gas companies on the Toronto exchange. I warn again, fortunes have been made and lost there. The fortunes are made when the smaller companies are sold to Shell, Chevron, etc.
You need to understand Duvernay before gambling.
I go the Canadian route most times with natural gas for straight stock plays but that is outside my main area of expertise.
There are many in the Alberta Stock Exchange that have been very volatile yet profitable. I warn you though, things can get dicey on that exchange with natural gas related companies.
Of course, there are some good gas companies on the Toronto exchange. I warn again, fortunes have been made and lost there. The fortunes are made when the smaller companies are sold to Shell, Chevron, etc.
You need to understand Duvernay before gambling.
This post was edited on 2/1/24 at 10:14 am
Posted on 2/1/24 at 10:13 am to Billy Blanks
quote:
Yes, what can I buy on Vanguard/Fidelity in this space?
KillTheGophers is being helpful to any who are not at or near the professional trader level. In other words, don’t do it, cause…
Posted on 2/1/24 at 10:15 am to Jag_Warrior
It is an ugly arena that should be avoided by most.
This post was edited on 2/1/24 at 10:17 am
Posted on 2/1/24 at 12:45 pm to Billy Blanks
quote:
I don't know anything about it other than fracking has caused a wild amount of earthquakes all over Oklahoma. That's my only guess.
I haven't noticed any reports of earthquakes in Texas. Have there been? If there hasn't, what's the difference? Doesn't Texas have a lot more Fracking operations than Oklahoma?
Posted on 2/1/24 at 1:04 pm to CharlesUFarley
quote:Yes, there have been. I owned a building in Dallas that suffered earthquake damage!
I haven't noticed any reports of earthquakes in Texas. Have there been?
LINK
quote:I think the geology in OK makes them more susceptible. Also, their takeaway practices might not be as good.
If there hasn't, what's the difference? Doesn't Texas have a lot more Fracking operations than Oklahoma?
Posted on 2/2/24 at 10:43 am to Billy Blanks
quote:
I don't know anything about it other than fracking has caused a wild amount of earthquakes all over Oklahoma. That's my only guess.
Fracking isn't the reason for the earthquakes...it's the injection wells for the brine disposal produced from fracking. The fracking itself is not the cause, a byproduct being reinjected is.
There have been earthquakes reported all over West Texas mainly in the Delaware from injection wells. Texas RRC has a couple of Seismic Response Areas under surveillance and all the injection wells are either shut in or curtailed to how much they can inject.
Posted on 2/2/24 at 5:42 pm to KillTheGophers
Whats the best way to buy natural gas in an ETF to hold for 10 years?
Posted on 2/3/24 at 6:43 am to MadtownTiger
quote:
There have been earthquakes reported all over West Texas mainly in the Delaware from injection wells.
I’m a rig hand in West Texas. We getting earthquakes regularly.
Posted on 2/4/24 at 10:11 am to Billy Blanks
quote:
fracking has caused a wild amount of earthquakes
That was salt water injection. Not fracking. Once OK banned salt water injection their prevalence of earth quakes dropped from north of 400 a year to south of 100.
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