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Moving retirement funds - Bond Index or Treasury Securities?

Posted on 6/10/11 at 12:25 pm
Posted by EatnCreaux
Houston, TX
Member since Jan 2005
2307 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 12:25 pm
With a significant sum that has done quite well distributed between an S&P 500 Index and a Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, I moved all of it to one that matches the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (which invests in government, corporate, and mortgage backed bonds) in early May.

Though it turned out to be a more favorable move than letting it sit there in funds whose value dropped, I'm starting to wonder if the chatter about another round of economic problems warrants yet another move to a more secure government securities fund. The borrowed "heads I win, tails I don't lose much" philosophy has been guiding my tinkering of my retirement account for the past 4 years. But I'm no expert on the vulnerabilities of this current fund to any imminent changes in the economic climate.

The history of this bond fund is that it has never lost money on an annual basis in the last 10 years. Its worst performance generated a 2.4% return in 2005. But the current economic climate doesn't seem to match up with events over the past 10 years, so I'm reluctant to presume another round of positive returns based solely on historical performance. Perhaps it has had positive returns during bad economic times for a good reason, but my limited understanding of that reason doesn't give me much confidence.

So what says the Money Board? Has an aggregate bond index gotten less safe? If you had only only two choices with your own money, would you rather have it invested in non-marketable US Treasury securities? Or would you keep it in the bond index fund? With my "heads I win, tails I don't lose much" philosophy, I'm not about to put it back in a stock fund right now. If I'm too risk averse, feel free to give me a reality check.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 12:36 pm to
quote:

So what says the Money Board? Has an aggregate bond index gotten less safe?
Do you know what the average weighted duration of the fund is? Anything more than four would make me nervous. If it's a true index bond fund, including some mortgage backed securities as you said, I'm betting the duration is much higher than that.

I just can't help believing that sooner or later we will see a spike in interest rates that could drive down your fund's NAV rather significantly.

quote:

would you rather have it invested in non-marketable US Treasury securities?
Say what? Is there such a thing?

quote:

If I'm too risk averse, feel free to give me a reality check.
What is your timeline for possibly needing the money? Is this a rainy day fund or is this something for your retirement years?
Posted by EatnCreaux
Houston, TX
Member since Jan 2005
2307 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

Do you know what the average weighted duration of the fund is?

Nope

quote:

Say what? Is there such a thing?

Isn't that like a savings bond? I'm not pretending to know, but my mid-echelon google skills led me to this sentence on Wikipedia "The non-marketable securities (such as savings bonds) are issued to subscribers and cannot be transferred through market sales." on this LINK (5th sentence from top).

quote:

What is your timeline for possibly needing the money? Is this a rainy day fund or is this something for your retirement years?

I'm 42 and face mandatory retirement at 57. Most folks in this job find another job after retirement and I expect to do the same. But I'll re-assess the need to do that as well as my desire to do it when that day comes.
Posted by PlanoPrivateer
Frisco, TX
Member since Jan 2004
2796 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 1:09 pm to
Duration of 5.2

I’d be interested in learning other’s opinions as well. I’m looking for someplace to put money that was saved up for something we no longer need. It is sitting in a money market account. I’m worried about bonds (bond funds) because of the sure to come higher interest rates. But how long will it take? I’ve been satisfied having the money in a money market fund thinking I would need it in a year or two. Now I’d like to earn a little more. I was thinking about a short term bond fund but with the latest dip in stocks I have been looking at some dividend stock mutual funds or just a balanced fund.

I will stay tuned for ideas.
Posted by Janky
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
35957 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

I’ve been satisfied having the money in a money market fund thinking I would need it in a year or two. Now I’d like to earn a little more. I was thinking about a short term bond fund but with the latest dip in stocks I have been looking at some dividend stock mutual funds or just a balanced fund.


LCCIX is a decent alternative. It pays you 2.9%.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 1:51 pm to
quote:

Isn't that like a savings bond?
Oh, you're right. I forgot about those. I never think of them as treasury securities but of course they are, just in small denominations.
quote:

I'm 42 and face mandatory retirement at 57.
So either policeman or fireman? Right?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

I have been looking at some dividend stock mutual funds
There are quite a few individual stocks with high dividend yields now. Drug companies for example. I think Eli Lilly (LLY) is paying over 5% now (probably way over 5% after today's drop) and I think their dividend is safe. Of course, you still have market risk to deal with, like today.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 2:19 pm to
There's always preferred shares as well.
Posted by tirebiter
7K R&G chile land aka SF
Member since Oct 2006
9246 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 3:31 pm to
I looked up the low and high prices since the inception of the Vanguard Total Bond Mkt Index dating to 1986. The low was $8.73 in 1987 and the high was $10.94 on 11/4/2010, it was $10.77 yesterday. The average coupon of the portfolio is 4.3% while the yield to maturity is 2.8% (SEC yield was 2.57% which is the most conservative estimate). So if you are comfortable paying a significant premium for a group of bonds that could decline significantly if/when rates are increased then go for it. I don't recall when, if ever, this paucity of yield has occurred and due to the current yield being low even small increases could have an exponentially negative impact on value. If the Fed raised rates 50 bps and the fund was yielding 5% it would be a little painful, but at 2.57%, yowser.

I don't know, there are no good alternatives due to asset inflation and Fed target rates. You may be better allocating a small amount to low beta large cap dividend stocks and spreading the rest over short term bond index/corporates and CD's. If you have access to a stable value fund that may be an alternative. One could argue that IT bonds may suffer less than ST bonds due to rate increases on the short end will affect those maturities greater than IT bonds.

Furck it, I share your pain, have way too much cash now, but I am not going to put it in a fund that could be understating its duration due to a large percentage of funds held in MBS which will extend in duration when mortgage rates will increase.

Then again, can the Fed and the US afford to raise rates in the next 2 years?
Posted by PlanoPrivateer
Frisco, TX
Member since Jan 2004
2796 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 5:15 pm to
quote:

LCCIX is a decent alternative. It pays you 2.9%.


Thanks Janky I took a look at LCCIX. It has a $2,000,000 minimum. I was thinking about something for about 1% of that. However, they do have investor shares, LCCMX, with a $2500 min. Now that’s more like it. The duration is a low 0.63. There is a $75 on-line transaction fee and a 1.56% expense ratio. The duration is low because they are 36% cash. The expense ratio is on the high side probably because 15% is in foreign bonds. The largest holding is a Venezuela bond with a 10.75% due 9/19/13.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 5:51 pm to
quote:

The largest holding is a Venezuela bond

:gulp:
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26580 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 8:41 pm to
Yeah I wrote a 20 page research paper on the Venezuelan economy a couple months ago...I'd stay far far away from any bonds investing in their debt.

Completely undiversified economy and crazy arse leadership.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 6/11/11 at 11:50 am to
quote:

Yeah I wrote a 20 page research paper on the Venezuelan economy a couple months ago.
I'd love to read that paper. Anyway you could link to it, or would that be giving away proprietary info (or giving away your identity, which I'd understand if you don't want to do)?

Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 6/11/11 at 12:49 pm to
Just for the sake of clarity here:

Duration = sensitivity to interest rates (there are several different measures of this)
Time to maturity = average life of bond

People use them interchangeably because in plain english "duration" is "time to maturity," but in bondspeak/finance, it is not. Duration is almost certainly the most important metric to be looking at, relative to the OP.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 6/11/11 at 3:40 pm to
Does anyone know if there is such a thing as a CDS ETF/ETN? Maybe tracks one of the MarkIt indexes? I googled and looked on Schwab and I didn't see anything, but I would guess someone has done this by now.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 6/11/11 at 3:47 pm to
quote:

Duration = sensitivity to interest rates (there are several different measures of this)
Ohhhhhh, so THAT is what it means?!?

You be's smart!
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 6/11/11 at 4:58 pm to
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