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Started By
Message
MMR down to $10.07...buying oppurtunity????
Posted on 3/27/12 at 10:47 am
Posted on 3/27/12 at 10:47 am
I'll hang up and listen.
3
Posted on 3/27/12 at 11:05 am to eazyeric23
If you think it's going to go up, then yes. If you think it's going to do down, then no.
Posted on 3/27/12 at 11:46 am to iAmBatman
:POW:
Posted on 3/27/12 at 12:05 pm to eazyeric23
I'm sure you are aware that McMoran is a gulf of mexico/South LA gas producer. While they have a nice inventory of high reward projects in the ultra deep and deep shelf plays natural gas prices are currently near $2.00. Many are projecting the glut of natural gas to last at least through the end of 2013 if not into 2014 or longer while the rig count flattens onshore in the shale gas plays. I don't know what breakeven costs are for MMR in their plays but I would be concerned with limited liquids exposure in a prolonged low gas environment. I would think that they are limited with nat gas below $4 or $5 to how much upside they can produce.
Posted on 3/27/12 at 12:26 pm to TigerDog83
Them dudes drill some deep wells.
Posted on 3/27/12 at 12:33 pm to TigerDog83
I wouldn't touch anything with significant exposure to natty as a commodity (unless its natty light and your in college). Want natty exposure? find a pipeline MLP or something. Looking at the chart this thing ain't done falling. Never try to catch a falling knife
Posted on 3/27/12 at 12:42 pm to greenhead11
quote:
I wouldn't touch anything with significant exposure to natty as a commodity (unless its natty light and your in college). Want natty exposure? find a pipeline MLP or something. Looking at the chart this thing ain't done falling. Never try to catch a falling knife
I personally wouldn't be buying into energy stocks right now. Most of the oil weighted stocks already have current oil prices factored in, and any further run ups risk more demand destruction for crude and lower outward prices. On the gas side it looks awful, and if we reach full storage this fall look out. I don't see how some of the highly indebted heavily gas leveraged companies will survive the next couple of years, especially now since their hedges have rolled off.
Posted on 3/27/12 at 12:52 pm to greenhead11
quote:
find a pipeline MLP or something.
You know they work on mostly fixed contract prices right?
quote:
I don't see how some of the highly indebted heavily gas leveraged companies will survive the next couple of years, especially now since their hedges have rolled off.
When I was doing some research a few weeks ago it was interesting to me to see who had good hedge books and who didn't. At least of the ones I looked at (which were mostly nat heavy but with other subs [utility, midstream, some e&p]), many of them had nat prices hedged well above $3.50 and 70ish% of 2012 production locked in, but naturally only a small portion of 2013 locked (most cases well under 50%). At least of the ones I looked at, they looked like they would be "okay" in 2012, but if its still bouncing around $2 in 2013 they're in for a world of hurt for sure. eta: Not to say I disagree with your first sentence, just some additional thoughts.
This post was edited on 3/27/12 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 3/27/12 at 12:52 pm to TigerDog83
I added a little more to my initial position. BTW, they now have gas flowing from Davy Jones.
Posted on 3/27/12 at 12:53 pm to TigerDog83
Nat Gas couldn't agree more. Excess supply, zero domestic demand, companies like CHK shifting product mix more towards oil, it takes a brave sole to have natty commodity exposure (short term). However there is speck money to be made in this industry, look at what CLNE has done. Or LNG.
OIL,
Disagree. The current environment is priced in (growing global demand, politics, etc) but Israel blowing Tehran off the map, not priced in. Oil futures jump at least 10% on any military action. But the spike would be short term as economics are self correcting. But then again we form a new higher base of support and suddenly in 6 months 3.35 a gallon will seem cheap
OIL,
Disagree. The current environment is priced in (growing global demand, politics, etc) but Israel blowing Tehran off the map, not priced in. Oil futures jump at least 10% on any military action. But the spike would be short term as economics are self correcting. But then again we form a new higher base of support and suddenly in 6 months 3.35 a gallon will seem cheap
Posted on 3/27/12 at 1:15 pm to greenhead11
quote:
Nat Gas couldn't agree more. Excess supply, zero domestic demand, companies like CHK shifting product mix more towards oil, it takes a brave sole to have natty commodity exposure (short term). However there is speck money to be made in this industry, look at what CLNE has done. Or LNG.
The crazy thing is that there are still rigs drilling in the Haynesville, Barnett, dry gas parts of the Marcellus, etc. I would think I would have reduced my rig count to zero in dry gas plays several months ago, but you can't ever discount the fact that these "debt drillers" always have to service that debt. The longer the price persists downwards the lower strip prices will go so I would assume the gas rigs will continue to get laid down.
On a side note - anyone else catch the Shell oil leak in the North sea? While it's obviously not nearly on the same scale and is more gas/condensate I did see some traders mentioning that the timescale to get it repaired is looking "BP like." Talking about 6 months to drill a relief well.
Posted on 3/27/12 at 1:22 pm to eazyeric23
hell of a call.
10% in an hour, I'll take it.
10% in an hour, I'll take it.
Posted on 3/27/12 at 1:26 pm to TheHiddenFlask
No 10% is not a hell of a call, ha if an Israeli nuke or missle goes airborn, now thats a hell of a call. But that won't happen till Obama gets re elected...
Yea saw that leak, the you got CVX in Brazil leaking too.
Kfizzle,
Yea I know about the contracts, but pipelines themselves aren't as levered to the underlying commodity price as say idk an oil or gas service producer.
Yea saw that leak, the you got CVX in Brazil leaking too.
Kfizzle,
Yea I know about the contracts, but pipelines themselves aren't as levered to the underlying commodity price as say idk an oil or gas service producer.
This post was edited on 3/27/12 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 3/27/12 at 1:43 pm to greenhead11
quote:
zero domestic demand
Naw, the warmer weather has certainly hurt residential consumption, but its being picked up on the commercial side from power plants since the price is so low. Supply and demand equilibrium.
quote:
On a side note - anyone else catch the Shell oil leak in the North sea? While it's obviously not nearly on the same scale and is more gas/condensate I did see some traders mentioning that the timescale to get it repaired is looking "BP like." Talking about 6 months to drill a relief well.
Shell or Total? I saw something about Total but nothing about Shell.
quote:
Yea I know about the contracts, but pipelines themselves aren't as levered to the underlying commodity price as say idk an oil or gas service producer.
That was my point, the exposure to the commodity price is really not all that great.
Posted on 3/27/12 at 2:14 pm to kfizzle85
Yea we arent differing here, my point was to offer an idea on how to be involved in the gradual nat gas pick up in America without commodity price exposure
Posted on 3/27/12 at 2:36 pm to greenhead11
quote:
No 10% is not a hell of a call
At 10% per hour, with:
8,760 hours per year of which
2/7 are weekends and
2/3 are non US trading hours, leaving
2,085 hours per year, that would generate an annualized return of:
2.15E+86
Meaning if you invested 1/10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 of a cent, in one year, you would have:
215,434,254,695,649,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 dollars.
Would you like to reevaluate your standards?
Posted on 3/27/12 at 3:26 pm to TheHiddenFlask
Got in at $10.19..closed at $11.23
Posted on 3/27/12 at 3:30 pm to TheHiddenFlask
I didn't say anything about 10% hour. If military action takes place or iran chokes off the straight of Hormuz, Brent will be trading at least $10-15 higher
Posted on 3/27/12 at 4:53 pm to greenhead11
quote:
I didn't say anything about 10% hour. If military action takes place or iran chokes off the straight of Hormuz, Brent will be trading at least $10-15 higher
so 10% isn't anything, but 10-15% is?
You're killing me smalls.
Posted on 3/27/12 at 8:21 pm to TheHiddenFlask
Ha I didn't think I was that confusing. So let me explicitly reiterate, I think if Iran closes the straight or Israel pulls the trigger Brent Crude will instantly gap up 10-15% higher on speculation of decreased supply. Which with Brent Crude trading at $125 would roughly equate to $10-15 dollars higher. So Brent would be north of 140 or so.
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