My company does not do a lot of transactions in Europe, but the few we do are fairly large. Does anyone know where to go to try to find some trend analysis to attempt to gauge when the best time is to pay the PO in Euros?

Looks like it jumped up from 1.10 to 1.12 over night, hoping it would drop back below 1.10, but worried it may continue the upward slope to 1.18+.

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Posted by Lou Pai

Member since Dec 2014

28123 posts

Posted on 5/19/17 at 10:35 am to Weekend Warrior79

Doubtful that anyone on here will be able to provide much insight on forecasting exchange rates. There are a myriad of factors that affect this and I am nowhere close to qualified to discuss forex with any sort of authority. That said, the dollar has weakened mainly due to the DC bullshite going on right now. Confidence in Trump has soured basically since the AHCA fumble, and recent events have only worsened the situation. This certainly isn't the only factor, but I would suggest that your view on how that situation plays out should contribute to your line of thinking.

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Posted by HYDRebs

Houston

Member since Sep 2014

1241 posts

Posted on 5/19/17 at 11:06 am to Lou Pai

quote:
That said, the dollar has weakened mainly due to the DC bull shite going on right now.

Yeah that's just not true. Please don't try and bring the poli board over here.

The Recent move to a stronger euro is due to several factors within both economies. The markets betting odds on a fed rate hike in June has been decreasing and now there are many doubting if we will have another hike this year. This is being driven by the low core inflation growth numbers. Meanwhile the EU has had some stronger than expected numbers recently in their unemployment rate. If you want to get political with it Macron's win in France has a lot more to do with the recent Dollar/Euro exchange rate movement

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Posted by Lou Pai

Member since Dec 2014

28123 posts

Posted on 5/19/17 at 11:10 am to HYDRebs

Go look at a DXY chart, ya nutstrap. This isn't poliboard bullshite. Eta: I also went to great lengths to say it was only one factor, you try-hard.

This post was edited on 5/19/17 at 11:20 am

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Posted by barry

Location, Location, Location

Member since Aug 2006

50346 posts

Posted on 5/19/17 at 4:24 pm to Weekend Warrior79

Make a transactional hedge. You can either contact a currency hedger or get your company an account that trades currency. Buy USD/EUR swaps or options to lock in a rate. It cost money so you have to weigh it against the cost of the transaction.

Predicitng currency directions is insanely complicated. So better to just lock in a rate if you are that sensitive to price movements.

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