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Dow will reach 25,000 because QE4 is coming: analyst
Posted on 1/28/16 at 11:53 am
Posted on 1/28/16 at 11:53 am
quote:
Lamoureux’s firm specializes in the field of behavioral institutional analysis, which quantifies crowd action and behaviors.
“We've built this model that tells us if we are at a state of complete panic, which we believe we are in, with the big drop in the Dow,” says Lamoureux. “And where we do our best work is when we get a sense mathematically of the extreme…If the crowd is too much one side of the boat, then we know the boat is about to tip over,” he says.
Lamoureux believes the boat is about to tip over and that U.S. equities are at a turning point. He says, “We don't know where the bottom is going to be…But if you start to step in the market, and you do this gradually over the next couple of weeks, we think we're at one of the major entry points that will carry the [Dow Jones] for the next 3 to 4 years past 25,000.”
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3
Posted on 1/28/16 at 12:09 pm to Street Hawk
Key missing part of your quote: "By the year 2020."
Posted on 1/28/16 at 12:19 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Key missing part of your quote: "By the year 2020."
It's ok Russian, even us MB lurkers got that from
quote:
for the next 3 to 4 years
I may not be Money Board mathy, but my crazy fantasy football mathiness helped me push through it.
Posted on 1/28/16 at 12:33 pm to Willie Stroker
I was just trying to help out any Univ of Alabama grads who might be posting on here....
Posted on 1/28/16 at 12:56 pm to Street Hawk
To the extent QI was used at all, it should have only been used to get the economy out of the ditch. It should NEVER have been used to drive expansion. Stock valuations were driven by easy money. The only way to unwind this is to give back some gains of the past few years that should have never been allowed to happen.
And since when was GDP growth of 3.07 percent been considered stagnant? Our postwar average is 3.22 percent.
If QE 4 happens, we will have permanently decided to privatize gains and socialize losses.
And since when was GDP growth of 3.07 percent been considered stagnant? Our postwar average is 3.22 percent.
If QE 4 happens, we will have permanently decided to privatize gains and socialize losses.
Posted on 1/28/16 at 5:57 pm to Street Hawk
Fed seems determined to raise rates.
Posted on 1/28/16 at 6:18 pm to LSU1NSEC
I think their determination will soften soon....
Posted on 1/28/16 at 8:43 pm to LSURussian
quote:
think their determination will soften soon....
Now way in hell. Not under Obama no matter what.
Posted on 1/28/16 at 8:47 pm to LSURussian
quote:Fed intervention is the only reason I see the stock market going up this year, but I don't want it to happen.
Dow will reach 25,000 because QE4 is coming
Our markets are addicted to QE, which didn't actually do much to help growth. It fueled M&A, share buybacks, and dividends - not so much economic growth.
Or, perhaps we can discuss how QE was supposed to repair our economy after a credit crisis by providing cheap credit. That cheap credit then led to the shale oil bubble and burst, which may end up with many of those over-leveraged companies going bankrupt. So we fixed the economy after a credit crisis by extending more credit, which may lead to another credit crisis. We're on a cheap credit crisis carousel, and either the Fed gets us off and we suffer through the aftermath, or we go for another spin.
Posted on 1/28/16 at 9:21 pm to Omada
quote:
Omada
I'm glad to see someone agrees with me.
QE isn't free. We have to pay the piper some day. And the longer we wait, the more it's going to hurt.
But like everything else financial in this country, the powers that be will just stick it to the next generation.
Posted on 1/28/16 at 9:54 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
I'm glad to see someone agrees with me.
QE isn't free. We have to pay the piper some day. And the longer we wait, the more it's going to hurt.
But like everything else financial in this country, the powers that be will just stick it to the next generation.
I will go one step futher, we would be better off right now had the QE never taken place in the first place. The pain would have been acute but short lived, instead we taught the banks that mommy Fed won't let them suffer their own mistakes, a recipe for disaster going forward. IMHO
Posted on 1/28/16 at 9:54 pm to LSUFanHouston
Japan considering going negative interest rates per Nikkei Business Daily. USD (DX) just made a huge move up.
Posted on 1/28/16 at 10:21 pm to cave canem
quote:
I will go one step futher, we would be better off right now had the QE never taken place in the first place. The pain would have been acute but short lived, instead we taught the banks that mommy Fed won't let them suffer their own mistakes, a recipe for disaster going forward.
Absolutely. The path to destruction is when the bankers get in bed with the politicians. QE1 only, for a very short period of time, like a few months, might have been ok. Once we got past the 6 month mark, it started changing behaviors. Like I said above, socialize the losses, privatize the gains.
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