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Buy and hold

Posted on 4/2/10 at 1:27 pm
Posted by John Merlyn
Member since Oct 2009
2203 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 1:27 pm
Seems to be the general consensus around here that this is stupid, however what about averaging in and holding for a long time period.

The average investor is going to hurt themselves more than they help if they try any other strategy IMO. shite, personally I would have missed this entire rally if I didn't have a bunch of index funds.
Posted by TJG210
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2006
28340 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 1:44 pm to
Invest with a purpose. I generally buy in with a predetermined point I'm going to sell at, of course if something fundamentally changes I alter my strategy. The most important advice I can offer is never sell on negative emotion,especially on a day when stocks are tanking. I've bought on many of these days and made a mint.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 1:56 pm to
I rarely hold a stock for longer than a week. There are a few that I am always accumulating, but the majority of my positions are bought and sold within a week.

Why hold dips? Why take two steps forward and one step backward over and over again? Why not take two steps forward, pause, and then wait until it's time for you to take another two steps forward. Buy and hold investing is a product of the pre-Internet, pre-online trading account investor of the 80s and earlier. When it would cost you 500 to execute a trade and the process required long, drawn out phone calls to guys in New York on the stock exchanges, yeah buy and hold may have been the way to go. But that type of investing is quickly going the way of the dinosaur when it comes to individual investors.

I will say that if you are investing with a huge account and are not an active trader and/or do not have the time to babysit a 30-stock watchlist, then, yes, buy and hold investing may be ideal for you. It's not easy moving 500k into and out of a stock every other week (for most stocks). But if you're not sinking that much into your picks and you do have the time to devote to constantly monitor your stocks, then the only excuse I can think of to adhere to a buy and hold strategy is lack of knowledge about TA or sheer laziness.

Well, how do I know when to buy and when to sell (assuming fundamentals remain the same)? Technical anaysis is the only way. It is often misunderstood by fundamental investors. They like to call it "voodoo" or "hocus pocus" or what have you. What they don't understand is that technical analysis is merely a visual representation of the fundamental drivers and/or psychological behavior that moves a security. Thus, technical analysis IS fundamental investing in a weird, indirect kind of way.

Every security becomes overbought. Every security is then eventually sold off. People invest in the stock market to take profits! Learn how to determine when a stock is overbought (which can really only be done properly through TA) and you will be able to cut out the "one step backward" nonsense I referred to earlier.
This post was edited on 4/2/10 at 2:11 pm
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 2:09 pm to
quote:

shite, personally I would have missed this entire rally if I didn't have a bunch of index funds.


And investors who have been holding for the past 2 years are still not back to even, unless they've been averaging down (or are in a bunch of dividend-paying stocks), which the average Joe with an account at Edward Jones has not been doing. And now they've missed out on what is nearing a 100% return on the Dow Jones. I can just hear the financial advisor at Edward Jones or some other joint, "Mr. Smith, I have some great news for you. Your account is almost back to where it was 2 years ago!" In other words, "The market has nearly doubled since last March and you have not made a single penny!"

Whatever your finance professor tells you (most of them) ... do the opposite if you want to become wealthy from the stock market. There are doctors who smoke. There are lawyers who break the law. There are accountants who are in debt. There are finance professors who know a lot about the science but very little about the ins-and-outs of becoming a successful stock market investor.
This post was edited on 4/2/10 at 2:23 pm
Posted by PlanoPrivateer
Frisco, TX
Member since Jan 2004
2795 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 2:15 pm to
quote:

do not have the time to babysit a 30-stock watchlist, then, yes, buy and hold investing may be ideal for you. It's not easy moving 500k into and out of a stock every other week (for most stocks). But if you're not sinking that much into your picks and you do have the time to devote to constantly monitor your stocks, then the only excuse I can think of to adhere to a buy and hold strategy is lack of knowledge about TA.

I mostly agree with this. I call buy and hold “investing” and active trading maybe something else like “working”. I feel a guy like me with a full time and a part time job just doesn’t have time or the resources that the professionals have. I have much more in mutual funds than I do in individual stocks. I am fairly new to buying individual stocks but have enjoyed sticking my toe in the water and learning.
Posted by tirebiter
7K R&G chile land aka SF
Member since Oct 2006
9204 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 2:43 pm to
quote:

Why hold dips? Why take two steps forward and one step backward over and over again? Why not take two steps forward, pause, and then wait until it's time for you to take another two steps forward. Buy and hold investing is a product of the pre-Internet, pre-online trading account investor of the 80s and earlier. When it would cost you 500 to execute a trade and the process required long, drawn out phone calls to guys in New York on the stock exchanges, yeah buy and hold may have been the way to go. But that type of investing is quickly going the way of the dinosaur when it comes to individual investors.


Some on this board might have held some securities or funds for 15-20 years and have large embedded capital gains. I think many have a portion of their equity holdings as long term buy and hold due to gains and/or increasing dividend streams, and tactically allocate the other risk taking portion of the portfolio based upon current valuations and market events. In tax advantaged accounts I have no qualms about taking gains, in taxable it could be a different story. That's what I do and why I don't adhere 100% to the financial planning mantra of holding all fixed income in tax advantaged accounts, that's what muni's are for and it relieves a lot of tax record keeping. To each his own.
Posted by FunkyTiger
New Orleans
Member since Nov 2009
1207 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 2:46 pm to
RedStick! I love your technical analysis, I've started to really begin looking at stockcharts.com like yourself etc. Which one do you have? Do you pay for the highest one they have? Something like $30 a month? Also, if you're not too busy, how does (MSEH) (F) (RDN) look in your eyes?
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 2:49 pm to
Tax consequences are another reason to buy and hold. You are correct. I mean there are reasons to do it. My post was assuming the OP was not referring to holding when it is obviously more advantageous to hold for reasons other than the underlying security's price performance.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 2:50 pm to
Yes, I pay for the full package. Real-time is a must for catching break outs. You don't want to be without it. It runs me about 40 bucks a month but easily pays for itself.

EDIT: I'll get to those requests. Give me some time. Would you rather I post them to Investor's Hub where you can view them live, as opposed to just a screenshot which is how I'd have to post them here?
This post was edited on 4/2/10 at 2:52 pm
Posted by FunkyTiger
New Orleans
Member since Nov 2009
1207 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 2:54 pm to
Doesn't actually matter man, it's not moving right now anyway
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 3:42 pm to
Here are the links to the charts. I went ahead and posted them to ihub so that you can view them live in the coming days. A couple things:

1. I had to go way back on RDN to find resistance, so in order for the chart not to appear too crowded, I used a monthly chart. By virtue of that, plays based off of that chart should be based w/ a longer-term hold in mind (i.e. a month or so at least). RDN DID make a nice breakout last month but I DO think it is a bit toppy as it is somewhat oversold on the monthly chart, oversold on the weekly chart, and very oversold on the daily chart. It could make a nice run still, but be aware that a pull back could likely first be in order.

2. In my opinion, investors who are buying the big boards right now should keep in mind that even though the individual security you're interested in may look good, the market as a whole is (again, in my opinion) becoming toppy and is due for a pull back. Such an occurrence would likely have a detrimental effect on many of the big board stocks, which could include F and RDN. Because MSEH is listed only on the OTCBB, a downturn by the general market would probably have little effect on its price action, if any.

F

MSEH

RDN

Glad you find the charts useful.
This post was edited on 4/2/10 at 3:44 pm
Posted by FunkyTiger
New Orleans
Member since Nov 2009
1207 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 5:12 pm to
You're amazing. I kind of hold the same beliefs in these stocks as you do. May I ask what you do for a living? Any stocks you like? Or do you keep secrets!
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 5:28 pm to
I'm a law student but will soon be applying to business school. It took the law to make me realize that my first love is finance. I studied it throughout college in my own time and have been investing for about 5 years now. But the field I would like to go into will be able to put both areas of study to use. I don't like to give stock tips on TD as it often comes off as a solicitation, but I'll make an exception.

Right now, I'm really liking LPIH. You can see some of my comments regarding it here:

LINK

and here:

LINK

The skinny is that they recently released guidance for FY 2011 of .65 on the low end (if warrants are fully exercised) and .75 on the high end. It's assumed by the company that all of its warrants will not be exercised, so I'll just call it .70. They closed Friday's session at 2.57, thus they have a Forward P/E of 3.67.

Here's the kicker: they've recently announced that they are submitting their application to be listed on the AMEX. They meet the requirements so issuance should take place over the next 120 days or so. Once we are uplisted to the AMEX, I think we will be given a P/E value that reflects that status. The Industry Avg. for Oil & Energy companies listed on the Nasdaq, NYSE, & AMEX exchanges is 27.5 w/ the outliers ranging from 12.5 to 42.3. Let's just say the market rewards our new little startup on the block with a P/E of only 10 ... w/ an EPS of .70, that still gives us a fair market value of $7.00.

I think LPIH is good for a bagger at minimum this year, with a lot of that price appreciation to be realized over the next three months once the AMEX uplist takes effect and once FY'11 begins (which for them is on July 1 of this year). Also, Chinese small caps have been on a tear and are expected to continue to do so given China's rapid growth. Even more so, the tremendous growth of the automobile industry in China will fare well for oil distributors. So we've got a trifecta here: we're in the right market, in the right industry, and in what I think is the right stock. And this is all without me even getting into the fact that the company has basically been granted a monopoly by the PRC.

I've been holding LPIH since 2.12 and have yet to sell a share, although I may begin to scrape a little bit off the top if it doesn't hold 2.50. I will still keep the large majority of my position.

I'm also heavily invested in JOEZ and TNDM. I like CLWR. Leave me your email and I'll send you some info on JOEZ and TNDM. I'm still DD'ing CLWR.

Everything else I'm trading. These are the only ones I'm willing to hold at this point in time. I'm staying away from large-caps right now with the exception of a quick trade.
This post was edited on 4/2/10 at 5:32 pm
Posted by FunkyTiger
New Orleans
Member since Nov 2009
1207 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 5:39 pm to
Sounds great,
i like cake

I guess you now know my name
This post was edited on 4/2/10 at 6:28 pm
Posted by foshizzle
Washington DC metro
Member since Mar 2008
40599 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 6:06 pm to
quote:

Seems to be the general consensus around here that this is stupid


Nope, I'm a buy and holder myself. I think reliably beating any market (financial or otherwise) depends on being able to exploit some sort of inefficiency, informational or otherwise. In the financial markets, such ineffiencies are fleeting and essentially impossible to follow. This isn't to say it's impossible to make money, in fact one *should* at least stay even with inflation.

The big problem with active trading to me is not that you can't make money, but that you aren't properly compensated for the amount of risk taken and the time you personally spend on it. The price of risk is also very actively traded by the way, albeit by major financial institutions, but I haven't heard of any active individual traders actually compare their returns against that price. I bet the comparison is not favorable.

As it happens I know someone who is an active day trader, and he's been doing it for five years now so he's been reasonably successful at it. And over the five years his returns are slightly higher. However, he has had a couple of moments where he was seriously worried he would lose everything, I have not. Not only that, but his "edge" amounts to less than $10K a year, which means he is getting paid very poorly for his time.

All the above goes out the window in some nonfinancial markets where one might indeed have a real edge. Local businesses and/or real estate come to mind. But in the financial markets I really do think the way to go is to diversify across the larger asset classes and larger countries, and spend the extra time posting on TD.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 6:14 pm to
Email sent, so go ahead and conceal your identity now if you want.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 7:16 pm to
quote:

Why hold dips?
The quick answer is how do you know it's a dip until afterwards?

Warren Buffett says his favorite holding period is "forever."

That's one of the reasons I'm never completely out of the market. I've got some shares I've owned for more than 25 years.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 4/2/10 at 8:21 pm to
I think part of the issue is the characterization of the strategies. I characterize "buy and hold" as dollar cost averaging into the market and never selling. I don't characterize everything that isn't "buy and hold" as day-trading either, and I think both are bad strategies. You can't exploit arbitrage opportunities unless you've got the means, I agree with foshiz on that, but the market is just a psychological measuring stick, and its wrong about something pretty much all of the time. You can find those mispricings if you want to, but whether it is worth your time is a personal decision. I intend to put a lot of my money into indexes/etfs and safe debt, but I will look for unique opportunities that may pop up from time to time and actively invest in the non-index portion of my portfolio.
Posted by Count Chocula
Tier 5 and proud
Member since Feb 2009
63908 posts
Posted on 4/3/10 at 7:39 am to
traders vs investors

different mindset
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 4/3/10 at 10:28 am to
quote:

traders vs investors

different mindset
Excellent point!
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