re: BREAKING: OPEC Reaches Production Cut Deal

They're more likely playing crude futures. Buy or sell based on whatever announcements they plan to make. There's more money to be made that way than stocks.

In addition to the other mitigating factors already mentioned here (Iran, US swing production, OPEC members that cheat...) we also have Libya ramping up production for the first time since 2011.


ETA: just read that Iran, Nigeria, and Libya are exempt from the deal. So expect production to be flat at best. Production target is 32.5 which is only a million less. So that will be made up by the exempted countries.

I wouldn't start getting all riled up.

A. Chances are this doesn't go through. Very volatile market with many volatile countries involved. This will be the first time OPEC and non-OPEC agree on production freezes. There is a reason this "will" be the first time, they can't agree on anything unless it's killing each other.

B. If it does happen, the production freezes will be freezing at all time record levels of production. So you'll get the bump from the agreement, and then it'll start going back down once stockpiles keep climbing and tankers keep anchoring off the coast next to refineries.

C. I doubt some of the more unstable countries will keep to their words made in the deal, and will mysteriously being producing over their limit. These are some of the sketchiest people in the world, especially Iran. Iran will find ways to produce more oil and sell it on black markets for other goods instead of in dollars.