re: Black Monday - Iran says that it has fired first wave of Ballistic Missiles at Israel.

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What I'm saying is - in the context of this thread - it was utterly absurd to have expected "Black Monday" based on what happened.

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I can absolutely agree to that. Within the first hour of reports coming in, before anything had been shot down there is wiggle room (but just because of the unknown future at that point), but once Iran said "done-sies" and Israel wasn't sending response missiles, the grounds for any sort of Black Monday quickly disappeared.

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If they had truly wanted to start WWIII, can we agree they would have done something MUCH MORE severe than this?

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Sure. But beyond that point is where we diverge because I think that was likely a prelude to more action, until Iran saw the response.

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My sense is Iran knows they are operating within clear constraints and they aren't breaching those.

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I think they had been, but they got a little full of themselves and over-reached with the extent to which they went. The entire region is now buzzing about not that they sent missiles nor drones at Israel but the sheer amount of both.

This may work out for them if the rest of the region begins bowing to them becaus they think Iran has become too aggressive and can pull another such onslaught off at any time (I'm skeptical), but it also may backfire by causing others in the region to unite against them (in case that aggression is aimed toward them for any real or imagined slight, see: Jordan).

It's all a tightrope right now. The next step is Israel's. I don't see how they don't respond forcefully, but I also don't see them invading foriegn air space to bomb Tehran. The back and forth, if it's vigorous enough, could cause oil to skyrocket but it's really going to be a day-by-day situation until/unless tensions ease.