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Banking Sinking Faster Than Gov Can Bail

Posted on 12/30/08 at 4:54 am
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 4:54 am
Here is what happens when the market is not allowed to accomplish it's important function of price discovery. From the WSJ...

'From the Wall Street Journal:

Banks and savings institutions in the U.S. appear headed for their first overall quarterly loss since 1990, as troubled loans pile up faster than the federal government's unprecedented efforts to aid the battered industry....

"The earnings power for this industry has absolutely collapsed," says Eric Hovde, chief executive of Hovde Capital Advisors LLC, a money-management firm in Washington that specializes in financial services.

Nearly a quarter of U.S. financial institutions reported a net loss for the quarter ended Sept. 30. The percentage is likely to climb when fourth-quarter results are announced in January, with some analysts predicting that even stalwarts like J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. could tumble into the red....

The glum fourth quarter is an ominous sign for 2009. The U.S. government so far has poured $169 billion into more than 130 financial institutions through its Troubled Asset Relief Program, according to Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. But some banks already are looking for more money or hoarding their existing capital in expectation of another awful year.

Yves here. Repeat after me: you need recapitalization AND price discovery. The near pathological avoidance of the latter by the officialdom would seem to support widespread suspicions that making asset to market, or even a realistic notion of longer-term value, would confirm that the industry is insolvent.'...it gets worse. If you want a case of after Xmas blues continue reading. :)...

LINK



Posted by Worn Hanes
Member since Oct 2008
129 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 8:07 am to
Naked Capitalism is a good daily launch pad. What others do you read?
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 10:21 am to
I'm not sure how much price discovery would have mattered. By the time they got around to trying to recapitalize, the only people buying distressed banks were going to be the OTS/FDIC or some kind of Fed-backed takeover. As it stands now anyways, banks are using (or making it known that it is their intent to use) the TARP funds to buy up other banks anyway.

ETA: Don't mistake my comment to mean I think TARP is a good thing (I almost always agree with NC posts), I'm just nitpicking at her comments for the sake of nitpicking.
This post was edited on 12/30/08 at 10:26 am
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 10:30 am to
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Brad Setzer Follow the Money (Setzer is in CFR)

Jessee's Cafe Americaian

Calculated Risk

Minyanville

The Daily Reckoning

Winter Economic & Market Watch

The Automatic Earth

Financial Armegeddon (tamer than the name)

Economist's View

Institutional Risk Analytics

Project Syndicate J Stiglitz

The Prudent Bear

Shadow Government Statistics

Bloomberg.com

Seeking Alpha

Pater Tenenbrarum's Blog

Financial Times (US Edition)

Marketwatch.com

Market Ticker (when Denninger is calm)

Cliff Kule's Notes

Mises Institute Current Articles

The Big Picture (Barry Ritholtz is sharp)

and some others...mostly commodity sites...and history sites. I sometimes buy/sell commodities. Naked Capatalisim generally has good to excellent comments by readers/posters and Yves is an economist and a savvy lady. If you have an opportunity today read what Jessee has posted about Brad Setzer's original post concerning capital inflows/outflows in recent months. Here is a link: Dancing on a Precipice: the Tenuous Balance of Global Finance
LINK /
This post was edited on 12/30/08 at 10:32 am
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 10:43 am to
I just started reading Sester about two months ago, good stuff.
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 10:46 am to
I don't want to derail this thread into a slew of rants about TARP but I do want to say that untill the freedom of information requests, filed by Bloomberg and Fox seeking info from the Fed and Treasury, have been ruled on by the courts then we have little idea what funds have gone where and what those funds have been used for.

Basically, the Fed and Treasury have said by their refusal: 'It is none of the taxpayer's business what we are spending their money on.' I find that more than a little irritating.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 10:51 am to
I can't believe that story doesn't get more press. It's so shady and outright un-American it's not even funny.

ETA: But you do know where most of the TARP money has gone, because TARP money has been used exclusively in exchange for the preferred shares. It's the various liquidity facilities where they're swapping garbage for .001% loans that I want to know about.
This post was edited on 12/30/08 at 10:54 am
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 10:58 am to
Setzer is a sharp economist and it doesn't hurt that he is a member of the Council On Foreign Relations. That is a group of insiders that get info before most others, even Wall St at times.

Setzer has been worrying this capital flow problem like a dog with a bone for a long time. He doesn't give up on a thorny problem. I like that in a person. His comments today should be enough to frighten anyone with a lick of sense. He sure got my attention! I have not taken into consideration any extreme dollar weakness or the possibility of a dollar collapse, for at least the next two years. I Gotta rethink that now.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 11:13 am to
I'm at work and I haven't gotten to my RSS reader yet today, don't ruin it for me!

But yeah, his stuff is really detailed and wonky, exactly how I like it. The domestic issues are so thorny to begin with, people forget/don't realize how much of a truly global problem we have right now.
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 11:16 am to
I used to have a job till I figured out that it was costing me money.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 11:23 am to
Well I don't have any money.
Posted by Colonel Hapablap
Mostly Harmless
Member since Nov 2003
28791 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 11:34 am to
quote:

Market Ticker (when Denninger is calm)

great one this morning, BTW. Doc Fenton ought to read it.
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 11:37 am to
I am retired, just kidding about the job costing me money.

Short dollar starting to look interesting. Long oil (in dollars only) a possibility. Hell, long any commodity in dollars might be ok. :) Gotta watch the dollar index pretty close from now on. Also the spreads on CDS/Treasurys.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 11:43 am to
It's tough for me to say I'd want to be long in any asset class right now. For that reason, I'm glad I don't have any money to lose.
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 11:49 am to
1) Lost opportunity is faaaar better than lost capital.

2) My time preference is somewhere over the horizon.

3) I read 'The Way of the Turtle' long ago. Now I am writing my own version 'The Way of the Frozen Snail'.
Posted by Colonel Hapablap
Mostly Harmless
Member since Nov 2003
28791 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 11:52 am to
you have to be long something. long FRNs is still long...
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 12:27 pm to
I'm long my own education and work experience right now.
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 12:41 pm to
Colonel, I dont have any FRNs. If I was forced to take a position in FRNs I would short them...way outta the money. I am long gold, short GE. Gave up GE position too early but am going to short it again. I will short dollar as soon as my crystal ball is returned from the repair shop.

I have requested the forms from the government that are required for submission prior to becoming a bank. I need some TARP money to start my own hedge fund. I have already picked a name...'All Shorts' subheading 'If you are shorter than us you are breaking more CFTC rules than we are'...

Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 2:55 pm to
Well I'm only 5'4, so I think I'd fit right in.
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 12/30/08 at 3:17 pm to
Making lots of money with a hedge fund is not difficult...if you are the founder and ceo. Pay yourself well till the fund is insolvent then fold it. Happens almost every day.

Many of the boys have started and folded numerous hedge funds. Makes one wonder just how large the pool of wealthy fools is. I suppose the wealthy fools will wise up...when they run out of money.
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