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Started By
Message
A stock recommendation for the money board ... MICROVISION
Posted on 7/17/09 at 1:32 pm
Posted on 7/17/09 at 1:32 pm
I've seen people attempt to recommend stocks in the past, and it was generally not received well because they did not present a compelling arguement why... or enough of an arguement why.. or perhaps they were a noob that didn't post regularly on the money board...
I'm overall very negative on the stock market right now and I'm mostly cash.... my only holdings are a couple of homerun type stocks that I think can still perform in spite of the macro conditions and that I bought only with the intention of making many times my money no matter what... my #1 stock right now is a company called Microvision... I've been long for about 1.5 years, averaging up and down.... I've been meaning to take the time to write up a good detailed post to why I think this stock could really run, but I never got around to it...well, somebody did it for me :
I'm overall very negative on the stock market right now and I'm mostly cash.... my only holdings are a couple of homerun type stocks that I think can still perform in spite of the macro conditions and that I bought only with the intention of making many times my money no matter what... my #1 stock right now is a company called Microvision... I've been long for about 1.5 years, averaging up and down.... I've been meaning to take the time to write up a good detailed post to why I think this stock could really run, but I never got around to it...well, somebody did it for me :
quote:
Some of you may have taken a LONG position in Microvision stock [Nasdaq:MVIS].
I feel responsible for introducing this stock opportunity to many of my friends and family [about a year ago] when the price was about $2.50. Since than the price dropped to $0.78 and has now recovered very nicely to over $3 today. Those of you that bought more when the price got to be less than a dollar [as I had recommended] have done very nicely.
Now we have reached the stage when the company is ready to launch its laser based PicoP Projectors. It is for this reason that I would like to bring you [my friends and family] up-to-date on the latest happenings with the Microvision stock. If you have not taken a position as yet, consider yourself still lucky to be in a position to buy this stock in the $3 price range.
MVIS stock was under pressure not only due to volatile market conditions of the past few months but also because of short sell pressure or was being manipulated to keep the stock price low for whatever the reason. It’s a game that is well recognized on Wall Street as the competitors [with deep pockets], hedge fund shorts and other unscrupulous operators play. Competitors with deep pockets, shorts and other unscrupulous operators can hurt a company [that is financially short on cash] by making it difficult for the company to raise money when most needed.
Fortunately for Microvision, there was a limit to how far the MVIS stock price could be pushed down by competitors, shorts and the unscrupulous operators. Microvision has over $30 million cash, a powerful IP portfolio protecting its PicoP technology that is superior to any other out there… and it is ready to launch its first laser based PicoP projector some time in September. It has been a long wait… but we have arrived finally. The potential market for PicoP Projectors is huge [over 500 million units per year] and its only a matter of time [six months at the most] before Microvision starts to produce PicoP Projectors in large quantities to meet the huge demand and show growing revenue stream.
Microvision may need additional funding to fuel it’s potentially [huge] revenue growth sometimes in early 2010. However, make note! The additional funding is not for more of the same R&D… but for activities that directly result in mass production and revenue generation.
Consider the RISK vs. REWARD:
First, read the transcript of the Report “The Next Big Thing”. There are 40 pages to this very well written report and will take you an hour or so to read… but it is well worth it. Here's the link...
LINK
After reading this report on Microvision stock opportunity, you will understand why the Risk vs. Reward is compelling and the stock remains a strong buy for over 50 fold increases in price per share (PPS) in the next 3 to 4 years… by the end of 2012. Here’s why…
Reward: For those who understand the company’s — business model; the various products; the size [and the pull] of the captive world wide market— the rewards are phenomenal. In 2010, the PPS could be over $6, assuming a 1% adoption rate for the SHOW standalone from 500 million Laptops, PDAs, iPods, Digital Cameras, Camcorders and gaming console market… at 20% market share for Microvision.
continued....
This post was edited on 7/28/09 at 11:07 pm
Posted on 7/17/09 at 1:32 pm to Zilla
quote:
Here’s the financial projection…
Reward: For those who understand the company’s — business model; the various products; the size [and the pull] of the captive world wide market— the rewards are phenomenal. In 2010, the PPS could be over $6, assuming a 1% adoption rate for the SHOW standalone from 500 million Laptops, PDAs, iPods, Digital Cameras, Camcorders and gaming console market… at 20% market share for Microvision. Here’s the financial projection…
• Worldwide Market Size: 500 million units [does not include ROV scanners, multi-media cell phones, HUD and eye-wear]
• Market Adoption Rate: 1%... 5 million units
• Market share: 20% of 5 million units… 1 million units
• OEM price: $100 per PicoP display engine [supported by $300 retail price]
• Revenue: $100 million (for full year 2010)
• Gross Profit Margin: 40%
• Gross Profit: $40 million
• SG&A: $30 million
• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $10 million
• Interest: $0 million
• Tax: $0 million
• Depreciation: non cash and very small
• Amortization: non cash and very small
• Earning Per Share: $0.13 on a fully diluted basis [80 million shares]
• Price Earning Ratio: 50 for a hyper growth company with increasing market adoption rates and increasing market share for Microvision.
• Price Per Share: $6.5 approximately
Risk: The risk is insignificant [may be 4% per year in lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making 2 times your money in the next year or so.
In the 2012 to 2013 time frame, the stock could easily trade in the $200 [PE at 50] range. Here’s the projection…
• Worldwide Market Size: 1.4 billion units [900 million multi-media cell phones and 500 million Laptops, PDAs, iPods, iPhones, Digital Cameras, Camcorders, and gaming consoles] market for embedded and standalone SHOW™
• Market Adoption Rate: 5%... 70 million units
• Microvision Market share: 20% of 70 million units… 14 million units
• OEM price: $80 per PicoP display engine
• Revenue: $1,120 million (for full year 2013)
• Gross Profit Margin: 40%
• Gross Profit: $448 million
• SG&A: $48 million
• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $400 million
• Interest Expense: $0 million
• Interest Income: $10 million
• Tax: $60 million
• Depreciation: non cash and very small
• Amortization: non cash and very small
• Earning Per Share: $3.90 on a fully diluted basis [90 million shares]
• Price Earning Ratio: 50 for a hyper growth company
• Price Per Share: $195 per share
In my book, the Risk is insignificant [may be 4% per year in lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making over 50 times your money in the next 3 to 4 years.
As the man [Alex Tokman at Mircovosion] said in his March 6th earnings CC: "the market demand will be larger than the supply"!
Here’s the link to Microvision web site…
LINK /
This projection could actually be too low compared to the reality of the market place in 2012.
This post was edited on 7/28/09 at 11:07 pm
Posted on 7/17/09 at 1:51 pm to Zilla
I might look into this.
I know most of the stuff you see on the yahoo finance message boards is BS, but the very first thing I read was the review of a magazine blasting Microvisions product as being garbage basically(not bright enough to serve purpose).
I know most of the stuff you see on the yahoo finance message boards is BS, but the very first thing I read was the review of a magazine blasting Microvisions product as being garbage basically(not bright enough to serve purpose).
Posted on 7/17/09 at 1:56 pm to notiger1997
no, that was our competitors....microvision's is best of breed BY FAR
Posted on 7/17/09 at 2:05 pm to Zilla
I just picked up a few shares, based SOLELY on your post.
Posted on 7/17/09 at 2:09 pm to LSUtoOmaha
well, it pretty much contains the entire investment thesis, so, nice move !!!
Posted on 7/17/09 at 2:23 pm to Zilla
Ok, I just went all in on MVIS.
This better frickin' work....
This better frickin' work....
Posted on 7/17/09 at 2:30 pm to LSURussian
Russian, you know you want to buy some
Posted on 7/17/09 at 2:36 pm to Zilla
I actually saw you (Zilla) post something about this stock a few weeks ago and bought about $200 @ $2.60 and so far I've made $16.60 after commish
Posted on 7/17/09 at 2:37 pm to Zilla
quote:
no, that was our competitors
oops. My bad.
Posted on 7/17/09 at 2:43 pm to thelawisafterme
oh yea, congrats I guess sounsd like quite a losers game with those commisions taking such a bite... by the way, this is not professional advice and all that, etc do your own Due diligence, etc
This post was edited on 7/17/09 at 2:44 pm
Posted on 7/17/09 at 2:43 pm to Zilla
quote:Too late....
by the way, this is not professional advice and all that, etc do your own Due diligence, etc
Posted on 7/17/09 at 2:45 pm to LSURussian
russian, this is the one stock where its ok to tell us how many share you bought AFTER zilla's recommendation !
Posted on 7/17/09 at 2:46 pm to Zilla
I missed my chance to make a small fortune on a company called InFocus in a related field in the late 90's.
The info you/your company has laid out here really looks good.
The info you/your company has laid out here really looks good.
Posted on 7/17/09 at 2:51 pm to notiger1997
quote:
The info you/your company has laid out here really looks good.
Well, I do own about .0001811818181 % of the company, so THANKS !!!
Posted on 7/17/09 at 4:11 pm to Zilla
I just dumped my entire life saving into this stock
*crosses fingers*
*crosses fingers*
Posted on 7/17/09 at 4:37 pm to barry
Without reading all this: They make little projectors? Can someone explain the need for little projectors?
Posted on 7/17/09 at 6:23 pm to Zilla
quote:Sorry, can't do that. I don't want you to scold me again!
russian, this is the one stock where its ok to tell us how many share you bought AFTER zilla's recommendation !
Seriously, I didn't buy any today but I did add it to my trading screen watch list. I'm going to follow it for a while and see how it behaves as well as do some research on it.
One problem I see is its extremely low volume. While I was watching it today it appeared that the bid/ask volume was only a couple of hundred shares on each side. With that, it doesn't take much to move the market. And as you know ( ), I usually put in a bid for more than a couple hundred shares. A substantial order would definitely move the market for MVIS. That makes me just a tad uncomfortable.
But thanks for the introduction to MVIS. It looks intriguing.
Posted on 7/17/09 at 8:38 pm to Joe
quote:
Without reading all this: They make little projectors? Can someone explain the need for little projectors?
sure, you know that little microscopic 2" screen that is on every electronic you own ? kiss that good bye...these will be integrated into everything:
Laptops
Cell Phones
media players/ipods
Cameras
Camcorders
Heads-up Displays in vehicles & aircraft
wearable displays for soldiers
Home Theatres
Gaming Consoles
the market is unlimited ... not to mention the markets that aren't even in existence yet ... it really is a compelling technology ... IT will happen ... and even if MVIS gets a small portion of the market, think triple digit stock price in 3-5 years....
Posted on 7/17/09 at 8:42 pm to Zilla
also, for those of you interested, check out these youtube videos :
LINK
LINK
LINK
also think about this ... if you are apple, you always push the envelope, you always need the next big innovative thing, otherwise, you are no different than samsung, etc .... if you are apple, MVIS inside is a no brainier ... MVIS inside would be the holy grail for the iphone 4.0
LINK
LINK
LINK
also think about this ... if you are apple, you always push the envelope, you always need the next big innovative thing, otherwise, you are no different than samsung, etc .... if you are apple, MVIS inside is a no brainier ... MVIS inside would be the holy grail for the iphone 4.0
This post was edited on 7/23/09 at 10:46 pm
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