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Started By
Message
re: 10 yr yield going to 5%
Posted on 1/5/24 at 8:18 am to LSURussian
Posted on 1/5/24 at 8:18 am to LSURussian
quote:I was going to respond with a date in 2007, but apparently it did flash at 5.004% on Oct 23. I didn't remember that.
On what date did the 10-year Note hit 5%?
quote:
LONDON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose above 5.0% on Monday, hitting the July 2007 milestone that it briefly attempted to scale last week.
The run-up in yields on the 10-year Treasury bond, seen as a safe-haven in times of economic uncertainty and a benchmark for borrowing costs around the world, has been driven by investors pricing in stronger U.S. growth as well as fiscal slippage.
Yields at the long-end rose quickly after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the U.S. economy's strength and hot labour market might warrant tighter financial conditions.
The 10-year yield touched 5.004% on Monday, up around 8 basis points (bps) on the day.
It was briefly bid at a 16-year high of 5.001% on Thursday. It has risen 160 basis points since mid-May.
Alongside the Fed’s hawkishness, worries over fiscal matters have caused term premiums on the curve to rise.
1
Posted on 1/5/24 at 8:24 am to NC_Tigah
quote:The charts I have saved on my PC only show closing prices for indexes and bond yields. So when I looked at the ten-year yield for 2023 it never quite made it to 5% at market close any day.
apparently it did flash at 5.004% on Oct 23. I didn't remember that.
Thanks for the information, NC_.
Posted on 1/5/24 at 11:40 am to JimMorrison
quote:
JimMorrison
Congrats on the cherry-picked self-congrats!
quote:
copper futures are about to crash
quote:
it's kind of poetic if S&P ends this year around 4050, which is basically flat from Nov. '22. great trading opportunities here with increasing vol. equity bulls had their fun in the 1H, but bears making the comeback
Posted on 1/6/24 at 4:32 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Congrats on the cherry-picked self-congrats!
what?
you lol at those comments made in September as some sort of boom?
1. copper was bearish going into October and still is on longer timeframes. want to laugh? copper will make a huge move down in 2024 of roughly 20% from current price.
2. S&P going into October was bearish and bounced right above that 4050 target due in large part of the point of this thread--the 10 yr yield falling hard after it reached 5%. me saying if it ended the year at that level was clearly hypothetical and joking with the gif usage.
Posted on 1/6/24 at 4:32 pm to JimMorrison
quote:Riiiiggght. That's what you meant. Funny how it went up.
1. copper was bearish going into October and still is on longer timeframes. want to laugh? copper will make a huge move down in 2024 of roughly 20% from current price.
quote:Rigghhhtt.
2. S&P going into October was bearish and bounced right above that 4050 target due in large part of the point of this thread--the 10 yr yield falling hard after it reached 5%. me saying if it ended the year at that level was clearly hypothetical and joking with the gif usage.
I have an idea - send 500 people a "buy Tesla" email and 500 people a "sell Tesla email". Then proceed as you have in this thread.
Posted on 1/7/24 at 3:05 am to Big Scrub TX
alright, good chat. it's clear you are ignoring the tape.
Posted on 1/7/24 at 12:57 pm to Art Blakey
Yellen should have refinanced all the debt when 30 long rates were 1-2%.
Posted on 1/7/24 at 2:19 pm to PUB
Nice thought, but what do you suppose that massive supply of debt would have done to rates?
Posted on 1/7/24 at 5:59 pm to JimMorrison
quote:Copper is up since you predicted down. Just because you quote some chart gobbledygook as "bearish" doesn't mean anything - especially not when you just get to later say "oh, I mean LONGER TERM than the time I used to post a victory lap on my other prediction".
it's clear you are ignoring the tape.
Ditto stocks.
Posted on 1/8/24 at 5:41 am to Big Scrub TX
10 yr yield is also down since I predicted up. OMG!!
I see you are an ETF investor and get in your feelings when you read bearish predictions. I see it all the time.
active trading is what I do and the goal is to capitalize on price movements within a period of time. I know you can't fathom that, but your assumption that I'm always bearish and why you're latching onto comments from September is misguided. I have long investments like everyone, but it is more fun for me to discuss trades and be up to date on expected news catalysts that affect market prices.
maybe if you read this thread in September and saw that I literally predict a bond rally to begin when the 10 yr reaches 5%, you could have noted that and researched, then maybe profited on a trade. anyone smart enough can put two and two together to understand how that move would also affect different areas of the market.
I see you are an ETF investor and get in your feelings when you read bearish predictions. I see it all the time.
active trading is what I do and the goal is to capitalize on price movements within a period of time. I know you can't fathom that, but your assumption that I'm always bearish and why you're latching onto comments from September is misguided. I have long investments like everyone, but it is more fun for me to discuss trades and be up to date on expected news catalysts that affect market prices.
maybe if you read this thread in September and saw that I literally predict a bond rally to begin when the 10 yr reaches 5%, you could have noted that and researched, then maybe profited on a trade. anyone smart enough can put two and two together to understand how that move would also affect different areas of the market.
Posted on 1/8/24 at 10:42 am to Jag_Warrior
quote:
Nice thought, but what do you suppose that massive supply of debt would have done to rates?
Absolutely nothing. People who move bond markets understand supply dynamics.
Posted on 1/8/24 at 11:36 am to wutangfinancial
So you believe that roughly $34 trillion of paper hitting the market would have had zero effect? I do agree with your last statement, which is why I don’t agree with your first statement.
Posted on 1/8/24 at 12:16 pm to JimMorrison
quote:wut
I see you are an ETF investor
quote:
get in your feelings when you read bearish predictions.
wut
quote:You also think you're a mind reader - hilarious.
ctive trading is what I do and the goal is to capitalize on price movements within a period of time. I know you can't fathom that, but your assumption that I'm always bearish and why you're latching onto comments from September is misguided. I have long investments like everyone, but it is more fun for me to discuss trades and be up to date on expected news catalysts that affect market prices.
quote:Literally none of this has to do with copper and equity predictions.
maybe if you read this thread in September and saw that I literally predict a bond rally to begin when the 10 yr reaches 5%, you could have noted that and researched, then maybe profited on a trade. anyone smart enough can put two and two together to understand how that move would also affect different areas of the market.
I get it - you want to impress everyone with some bit of technical nonsense so you post "predictions" and only crow about the ones that hit.
There are a lot of guppies on this board - I'm not one of them.
Posted on 1/8/24 at 2:32 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I get it - you want to impress everyone with some bit of technical nonsense so you post "predictions" and only crow about the ones that hit.
There are a lot of guppies on this board - I'm not one of them.
ah, there it is.
I was wondering why you've taken such issue with those comments. trust I do not want nor care to influence or impress anyone, but don't gatekeep the money board. when I bumped this thread, it's the first time I've even posted on this board in months. if I want to shitpost predictions and have fun making money when I perfectly time a major movement, then I will do it.
who the hell acts on random posters' comments anyway. getting ideas from the board to research can be valuable, but of course, don't blindly do anything.
Posted on 1/8/24 at 2:45 pm to Jag_Warrior
Where are you getting this $34T number from?
Posted on 1/8/24 at 3:39 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
Yellen should have refinanced all the debt when 30 long rates were 1-2%.
Posted on 1/8/24 at 3:56 pm to Jag_Warrior
Okay, got it now. I thought y'all were talking about this year and next year not a hypothetical like refinancing all $34T at once.
Average Interest Rates on Debt
Here's a dataset on outstanding debt since I was curious what it is right now. Back in 2019 the average note was in the 1.5-2% range. In December it was 3.113%. Pretty wild but that's double in just a few years.
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