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Updated Bracket Projections
Posted on 2/5/16 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 2/5/16 at 1:33 pm
Jerry Palm has us in his First Four Out. He updated his bracket today removing Louisville from the field (self imposed post-season ban this year).
Palm Bracket
Lundari still has us as a 10 seed playing Utah. But he has not removed Louisville from his projection, so we may see another updated bracket from him soon.
Lunardi
It is possible that SMU and Louisville's post-season bans could create two at-large spots that may not have been there otherwise (depending on who wins the AAC and the ACC).
Palm Bracket
Lundari still has us as a 10 seed playing Utah. But he has not removed Louisville from his projection, so we may see another updated bracket from him soon.
Lunardi
It is possible that SMU and Louisville's post-season bans could create two at-large spots that may not have been there otherwise (depending on who wins the AAC and the ACC).
This post was edited on 2/5/16 at 1:34 pm
5
Posted on 2/5/16 at 1:37 pm to ellessuuuu
If we win out, I still think we have a great chance at a 4 seed
Posted on 2/5/16 at 1:38 pm to DollaChoppa
Possible because we would have at least one win over UF, A&M and two over Kentucky. Depending on SEC Tournament matchups, could be more.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 1:39 pm to ellessuuuu
Plus, this year is crazy. Everyone is losing games, so it will allow for a chance to catch up. Normally, Id say a 4 seed with 8 losses would be stupid, but right now there are teams with 4-5 losses already in the top 16 so.
This post was edited on 2/5/16 at 1:41 pm
Posted on 2/5/16 at 1:53 pm to ellessuuuu
Any guy who is predicting Vandy at this point into the tournament but leaves LSU out isn't worth noting.
This post was edited on 2/5/16 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 2/5/16 at 1:54 pm to ellessuuuu
quote:
It is possible that SMU and Louisville's post-season bans could create two at-large spots that may not have been there otherwise (depending on who wins the AAC and the ACC).
I mean, it's a fact.
Although, SMU's spot might end up being canceled out. They would win the AAC tournament. Without them in it, that league is pretty wide open. UConn and Cincinnati are at-large tournament teams, but there's a decent chance neither of them wins the AAC Tournament. Tulsa, Houston, Temple, and even Memphis are all capable teams.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 2:05 pm to chimneylooker
quote:
Any guy who is predicting Vandy at this point into the tournament but leaves LSU out isn't worth noting
Vandy has a significantly better RPI and SOS than LSU right now. Head to head results isn't always the "tiebreaker". Otherwise, LSU would have been out and A&M would have been in last year.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 2:17 pm to Alt26
A&M likely would have been in if it wasn't for injuries. NCAA wants the team that will actually be in the tournament to be capable
Posted on 2/5/16 at 2:18 pm to DollaChoppa
quote:
Normally, Id say a 4 seed with 8 losses would be stupid, but right now there are teams with 4-5 losses already in the top 16 so.
Just remember how many losses our last Final Four team had as a 4 seed.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 2:23 pm to Alt26
quote:If we finish ahead of Vandy in the SEC while also having the win over them I have a tough time seeing them make it over us
Vandy has a significantly better RPI and SOS than LSU right now. Head to head results isn't always the "tiebreaker". Otherwise, LSU would have been out and A&M would have been in last year.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 2:31 pm to BayouBengals03
Eamonn Brennan had a nice little write up on his bubble watch about LSU.
quote:
And so we arrive at last. It's only Feb. 2, but already LSU is 2016's most fascinating Bubble Watch team. Nay, it might be the most fascinating we've ever tracked. Think about it. For years, the Watch's biggest running subplots have at various points (and in no particular order) included: (A) the committee's distaste for bad nonconference schedules (SMU, 2014), (B) the committee's approach to injuries and evolving rosters (Purdue, 2010), (C) the RPI's intentional inability to account for margin of victory, whether individual members take note of impressive losses, and whether this system is flawed, and (D) the committee's occasional deference toward teams with brilliant individual stars (NC State with T.J. Warren taking SMU's bid in 2014). LSU is all of those things at the same time. The Tigers went 7-6 in the nonconference against a really bad schedule. They didn't add Craig Victor (transfer) and Keith Hornsby (injured) until after they'd lost most of those games. They just fell by a single bucket on their home floor against the No. 1 team in the country. They are led by future No. 1 draft pick Ben Simmons, who might be the best freshman since Kevin Durant. This is the bubble team to end all bubble teams. It is the alpha and the omega of the Watch. It's almost overwhelming. It's definitely fascinating. And we have no idea where things go from here.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 2:41 pm to lsupride87
quote:
If we finish ahead of Vandy in the SEC while also having the win over them I have a tough time seeing them make it over us
Conference standings don't really mean anything.
quote:
Likewise, they said, a conference's overall RPI would never be brought up, nor would where teams finished in their conference standings. Conference record doesn't even appear on the "nitty-gritty sheets" (similarly formatted to ESPN's) that committee members use for overviews of teams. So any time you hear someone talking about a team needing to get to .500 in Big 12 play or needing 12 Big Ten wins to get in, feel free to ignore it.
LINK
Compare LSU to Vandy today
LINK
The biggest factor in Vandy's favor is their SOS compared to LSU's. Outside of OU, LSU's non-conf. schedule was shite. It was double-whammy that LSU performed poorly vs. that shitty non-conf. schedule. You'll see that neither team has been very good against the RPI top-50. The only difference is that Vandy has played more "good" teams than LSU (9 vs. the RPI top 50 to 4) Vandy gets credit for challenging themselves. LSU didn't challenge itself in the non-conf.
The biggest factor in LSU's favor is the "subjective" factor. They are 10-4 since Hornsby/Victor both returned to play (4-4 before). If LSU keeps winning, the committee is going to judge them as basically being "2 different teams." I don't think anyone can suggest that LSU isn't a MUCH better team with Victor/Honrsby in the line up than they were without them. Come March, the committee will be deciding whether the LSU with Victor/Hornsby is tournament worthy, not whether the team without them is.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 2:52 pm to Alt26
Another thing the committee likes is teams that are hot late in the season. Cant afford to have a losing record in those last 4/5 games
This post was edited on 2/5/16 at 2:58 pm
Posted on 2/5/16 at 2:57 pm to Alt26
Great link. I hate that it shows us as 2nd in the sec though. Stupid link.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 3:03 pm to lwlsu96
quote:
Another thing the committee likes is teams that are hot late in the season. Cant afford to have a losing record in those last 4/5 games
That used to be an important factor. Remember, that was a huge reason LSU made the tournament in 2003. Today, I don't think it's all that important. Just look at Ole Miss last year. They were awful down the stretch going 3-5 and losing to virtually anyone with a pulse from mid-Feb on. Still, they made the tournament. They're good play in Dec./Jan. carried them through
Posted on 2/5/16 at 3:05 pm to Alt26
quote:Meh. If we finish 1st in conference or sole 2nd we are in.
Conference standings don't really mean anything.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 3:06 pm to lsupride87
I agree but if we finish 1st in the conference on alone in 2nd i'd imagine our rpi will have gone up a good bit. That would probably mean we were either 15-3 or 14-4 in conference.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 3:13 pm to Alt26
That's true, but Ole miss barely and I mean barely snuck in last year. Arkansas got left out a year before for how much they shite the bed at the end of the season. It's another one of those things that we don't wanna have working against us if we are fighting for a bid.
This post was edited on 2/5/16 at 3:14 pm
Posted on 2/5/16 at 3:17 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Meh. If we finish 1st in conference or sole 2nd we are in.
If only that worked for Washington a few years ago.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 3:17 pm to ellessuuuu
Someone willing to help me out? I've just never understood the significance of "First Four Out", "Last Four Out", and "Last Four In".
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