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Started By
Message
Tigers are -6.5 against state...Updated with win probability
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:40 am
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:40 am
I thought it would be more than a touchdown, but I guess that's reason #32 I'm not an odds maker.
Edit: For what it's worth (which is absolutely nothing), here is the win probability from OddsShark.com:
Odds Shark
Edit: For what it's worth (which is absolutely nothing), here is the win probability from OddsShark.com:
Odds Shark
This post was edited on 9/11/17 at 11:57 am
18
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:41 am to KC Tiger
Seems more or less right, given that home field is usually worth about 3 to the home team.
This post was edited on 9/11/17 at 10:42 am
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:41 am to KC Tiger
It opened at 3.5!
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:41 am to KC Tiger
Seems about right. It's almost always a close game in StarkVegas.
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:42 am to KC Tiger
If I were a betting man, I'd toss a 100 on it.
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:43 am to KC Tiger
Seems right. If the penalties don't get addressed it could keep MSU in the game.
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:44 am to KC Tiger
Too low. It will be greater than just 6.5 points.
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:44 am to KC Tiger
seems right...vegas knows how to get money coming in on both sides
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:45 am to KC Tiger
Considering the last few matchups between these two, I'd say that's a fair spread.
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:46 am to Bear Is Dead
quote:
Considering the last few matchups between these two, I'd say that's a fair spread.
Les ain't walking through that door
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:46 am to Brummy
quote:
It's almost always a close game in StarkVegas.
A lot of unknowns still with the team. It's why I'd stay away and find a better game to bet on.
This post was edited on 9/11/17 at 10:48 am
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:48 am to KC Tiger
I think LSU covers 6.5 pretty easily. IMO, should be around 8.5.
Mississippi State had a blocked punt for TD, LA Tech was inside the 10 and fumbled for a scoop and score, LA Tech was inside the 10 and LOST 87 YARDS.
That game against LT could have easily been like 43-35 or 50-35
ETA: What people fail to realize is the last 2 meetings have been a relative blowout early, only for LSU go insanely conservative (even for them) and allow MSU to comeback. If we have a team that gets a lead and keeps the pedal on the gas (which all signs point to yes), then I expect a 2 TD victory
Mississippi State had a blocked punt for TD, LA Tech was inside the 10 and fumbled for a scoop and score, LA Tech was inside the 10 and LOST 87 YARDS.
That game against LT could have easily been like 43-35 or 50-35
ETA: What people fail to realize is the last 2 meetings have been a relative blowout early, only for LSU go insanely conservative (even for them) and allow MSU to comeback. If we have a team that gets a lead and keeps the pedal on the gas (which all signs point to yes), then I expect a 2 TD victory
This post was edited on 9/11/17 at 10:51 am
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:49 am to KC Tiger
Think about it this way:
A team that's won 49-0 and 57-21 is a touchdown underdog at home. On a neutral field they would be a 10 point underdog. Vegas doesn't think too highly of their "great" wins
A team that's won 49-0 and 57-21 is a touchdown underdog at home. On a neutral field they would be a 10 point underdog. Vegas doesn't think too highly of their "great" wins
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:51 am to The Truth 34
quote:And what are you trying to say with that?
Les ain't walking through that door
Les was 10-1 against State with an average margin of victory of 19 points
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:52 am to KC Tiger
LSU has not soundly defeated State in a while. State is good at home. State has the second best QB in the conference and has what appears to be a great defense.
I'm actually surprised the line is not closer to -3 LSU.
I'm actually surprised the line is not closer to -3 LSU.
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:52 am to KC Tiger
It's too low imo
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:54 am to Random LSU Hero
quote:
It opened at 3.5!
Not sure where you saw -3.5. Opened at -6.5 on Bovada (off shore). It opened at -7 in Vegas.
09/16 7:00 PM
187 LSU
188 Mississippi State
-7 EV
Vegas Insider
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:55 am to DeltaDoc
quote:
State has the second best QB in the conference
Nope
quote:
and has what appears to be a great defense.
Nope
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:59 am to TigerBait2008
State has 6-7 NFL guys on their defense and Fitzpatrick led the SEC in total yardage last year.
Posted on 9/11/17 at 10:59 am to KC Tiger
So we are going to win 6.5 - 0?
I think our offense can put up more points than that.
I think our offense can put up more points than that.
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