Predicted RPI Finish By Warren Nolan

LINK

quote:

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Predicted RPI is a prediction of each team's RPI at the end of the regular season (including conference tournament games as matchups are determined). Each team's final winning percentage and strength of schedule (SOS) are calculated using expected results of future games based on this season's previous results. The final winning percentage and SOS are then used to calculate the predicted RPI using the normal RPI formula.

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What's interesting is how they predict the records and use that to predict the final regular season RPI.

Let's take LSU, Stanford, and Kentucky...

LSU could finish 3-1 (midweek win and series win vs State)
Stanford could finish 5-2 (Should be easy considering their very easy schedule vs the Washington schools)
Kentucky could finish 2-2 (midweek win and series loss to UF)

LSU would fall from 11 to 13
Stanford would jump from 13 to 11
Kentucky would stay the same at 7

Let's look specifically at the ACC schools right ahead of LSU: Clemson, Wake, and Virginia

Notice that even though these teams play relatively weak schools to finish, their SOS remains the same. And with each finishing 3-1 only Virginia falls a couple of spots to 12 ending up just ahead of LSU.


Now, I get all of this is based on predictions and doesn't include the conference tournaments (which the PAC12 doesn't have), but it gives some insight to LSU's uphill battle to improve their RPI over the ACC schools, Kentucky or Stanford.

This really all goes back to the thought that "All LSU has to do is win the MSU series" which many people have claimed. I agree that most years 20 wins would easily be enough for a national seed. But this year, we're looking at 3 other SEC teams in that range with at least 1 other team being 20+ (UK or UF) and the ACC being a higher rated conference than the SEC. And that's not up for debate. Unfortunately, this means the SEC could only get 2 national seeds, while the ACC pulls 3. And in this scenario, UK, while not have as many SEC wins, will have the head to head and RPI advantage over LSU going into the SEC tournament.

Finally, all that being said... just win baby. Sweep MSU, win 2 SECT games (which may not be necessary at that point, but for good measure). And if you really want LSU to get a nat seed, hope UK gets swept. That's who we are competing with IMO. Not the ACC schools.