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Nuss’ Reads

Posted on 12/7/22 at 6:36 pm
Posted by Mako_fin
Member since Sep 2016
772 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 6:36 pm
Let me start by saying I like the Nuss offense a little better than when JD is at the helm. I do feel like turnovers would exponentially increase, at current experience level, with Nuss as the starter.

My question is this, is it me or has anyone else noticed Nuss seems like a 1 read only guy thus far in his career? Most of his drop backs it appeared he was locked onto one guy and eventually made that throw in that WR’s general direction.

Am I correct in this observation?

Obviously experience and coaching can vastly improve this.
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
59017 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 6:44 pm to
Yes
Posted by ipodking
#StopTalkingAboutWomensSports
Member since Jun 2008
56283 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 6:45 pm to
Its why he throws so many ints

If you’re noticing him staring down receivers, defenses are as well
Posted by SulphursFinest
Lafayette
Member since Jan 2015
8732 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 6:45 pm to
Safeties are invisible
Posted by pbro62
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
11302 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 6:47 pm to
Books? Email? Instagram?
Posted by BBJ
BR
Member since Apr 2012
1366 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 6:49 pm to
I don’t trust Nuss with a 12 game schedule. He is from Dallas and would be perfect for TCU. Would rather Howard and set up for 2024. Next year won’t be the same but much of the same. 24 is when roster is built and studs are upper classman
Posted by crewdepoo
Hogwarts
Member since Jan 2015
9585 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 6:51 pm to
quote:

the Nuss offense
we saw a half game of him play while down 4 scores. I doubt we run air raid in a typical offense.
Posted by jkylejohnson
Alexandria
Member since Dec 2016
13998 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 6:51 pm to
quote:

Books? Email? Instagram?


Posted by p226
Lafayette
Member since Sep 2016
888 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 6:59 pm to
quote:

Am I correct in this observation?


No -- in the SECCG against Georgia, no.

quote:

Hot Carl: Yes


No, not in the SECCG against Georgia

quote:

If you’re noticing him staring down receivers, defenses are as well


Not really in the SECCG.

It's more complicated than you guys make it sound. There's a guy on youtube who does very detailed film study of LSU QB throws. The one he did for SECCG is very good.

I've been watching them for LSU games this year. I've learned a lot about how JD and Nuss read coverage, the throws they make, their decisions. You should, too.

Watching the guy's film study, you'll understand why so many on tRant are so angry about simplistic criticisms of JD -- he's way more sophisticated than everyone here makes him sound, and he DOES make some good throws ..... sometimes.

Search on youtube for "Nussmeier film LSU Georgia", something similar, and you'll find the video. It's 55:29 long.

Thank me later.
Posted by p226
Lafayette
Member since Sep 2016
888 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 7:03 pm to
Or ... search for .... "LSU vs Georgia Film Study: Why GARRETT NUSSMEIER Dominated"

I'm not sure if I can link to other people's youtube videos here? What's the law on that at tRant?
Posted by Bayou
CenLA
Member since Feb 2005
36794 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 7:08 pm to
quote:

we saw a half game of him play while down 4 scores. I doubt we run air raid in a typical offense.

Hallelujah! A voice of reason.
Posted by thatsnotmydog
Parts Unknown
Member since Nov 2013
369 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 7:10 pm to
quote:

I do feel like turnovers would exponentially increase,


Miss and Daniel’s each had 3 ints this year but Daniel’s had 371 attempts to nuss’s 69. Now I’m no mathematician but that looks like way less than 1% for the starter and about 4% for the other guy. That means nuss completes to the wrong team somewhere around 725 times more frequently than daniels. I’m a bit vague on exponential functions but I think that means increasing at an increasing rate and way more than an average rate. If so ole nuss will throw a solid 21 int’s over same attempts as daniels AND that is not accounting for exponential growth. Maybe it’s me but them seems a little high if we aspire to a better record next year.
Posted by iBack8569
Member since Dec 2021
1174 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 7:41 pm to
The problem is that Daniels almost never pushed the ball downfield to stretch the defense, so his passing stats are misleading. The guy dinks and dunks his way to a 70% completion rate and tries to scramble when the short throws aren’t there. When he does throw deep the ball is almost always underthrown or late. Yeah LSU went 9-4 with this approach, but who did they beat other than Alabama? The only team to finish the year ranked is Miss St. and they’re 24. The division sucked. When they went against real competition they got smothered because Daniels wouldn't throw the ball. He’s not the QB to win a championship.
Posted by p226
Lafayette
Member since Sep 2016
888 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 7:54 pm to
quote:

Daniels almost never pushed the ball downfield to stretch the defense


I think that's fair -- obviously. JD has GOT to get better at making long throws outside. also ... JD veeeeery rarely throws over the middle--that needs to improve. JD often completely misses/doesn't see wide open receivers. I've seen all this in the film study video I talked about -- it's all there.

BUT ... Nuss also missed open receivers in SECCG. He made the wrong read of defense coverage and threw to the "never to that guy in this situation" receiver.

What make everybody excited about Nuss is not his actual numbers, actual "reads" he makes -- Nah.

What makes everybody like Nuss is when he throws it 20-40 yards downfield and it's 10 feet off the ground the whole way. Or the super accurate deep throws where only his receiver can catch it.

JD can't do that -- prolly never will. A LOT of QB's will never make those throws. Like a lot of QB's will never run like JD.

so....they ARE both "good QB's" .......

but, JD needs to go. He doesn't throw well enough, pure and simple.
Posted by iBack8569
Member since Dec 2021
1174 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 7:57 pm to
And I’ll also point out that Nuss is still learning as a 2nd year guy. JD played scared as a 4 year starter.
Posted by Zippydog
metairie , La
Member since Jan 2020
453 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 8:00 pm to
Excellent analysis !!
Posted by jwp475
N. La.
Member since Oct 2010
559 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 8:03 pm to
quote:

we saw a half game of him play while down 4 scores. I doubt we run air raid in a typical offense.



Exactly.



Posted by Zippydog
metairie , La
Member since Jan 2020
453 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 8:04 pm to
JD has had 4 years starting . Father was a high school coach I believe . It’s not like he had no coaching . Time to get off the bus . He has hit his ceiling . Not good enough for a college Natty and not good enough for the pros . Another Jameis Winston .
Posted by p226
Lafayette
Member since Sep 2016
888 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 8:05 pm to
quote:

And I’ll also point out that Nuss is still learning as a 2nd year guy. JD played scared as a 4 year starter.


good point. someone on here couple days back posted JD's stats for every season he's played in college -- every year was very similar (except for Covid in 2020).

Their point was JD this year is exactly what he was at ASU -- very low INT's, roughly same yards, same completion percentage, same number of ATT's. Hasn't changed at all since he started, so prolly won't change next year. This is what he is.

so.....you wanna win 8-9 games with jd next year? Or gamble on Nuss and hope he gives us something special?
Posted by des4271
Member since Oct 2014
4028 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 8:08 pm to
He has been trained by his dad, who is an ex- NFL QB and NFL QB’s coach, I don’t think he’s a one read guy. He may do a lot of pre snap diagnosis based on alignment and leverage that tells him where his best option is and he may get locked in to that option sometimes because of that pre diagnosis but I don’t think he’s a one read guy at all.
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