Navigating the bowl picture

First, a very useful reference: the SEC Digital Network website on bowl tie-ins.

The bowl selection order is as follows:

1. BCS National Championship game. If the SEC has a team ranked #1 or #2 in the final BCS standings, then that team must go to the national championship game. Alabama will be #2 in those standings, and thus will go to the title game against #1 Notre Dame.

2. Sugar Bowl. The SEC Champion receives an automatic bid to the Sugar Bowl. In years where the SEC Champion goes to the national championship, the Sugar Bowl is allowed to select a replacement before any other at-large bids are placed. Because this is the case this year, the Sugar Bowl is allowed to pick any at-large team to replace Alabama. Florida will most likely be their replacement pick, as the Sugar Bowl has always replaced a championship-contending SEC champion with a team from the SEC in years where it is allowed (see next point). They will most likely face Oklahoma.

3. Other BCS bowls. The other BCS bowls are allowed to pick whomever they choose from eligible teams, with the exception that they are limited to two teams from a given conference. Alabama and Florida have already been selected, so the other BCS bowls cannot pick an otherwise-eligible SEC team.

4. Capital One Bowl. The Capital One Bowl gets the first selection from non-BCS-bound teams. Brett McMurphy already broke that Texas A&M had been selected. The Capital One Bowl is obligated to pick Nebraska or Northwestern here, because it must pick teams within a loss or a win (read: no more than a half-game behind) the team with the best overall record in the conference that's still available to be chosen. Nebraska will likely be chosen here given the larger fanbase and national attention.

5. Cotton Bowl/Outback Bowl. This is where things get tricky. Per Jacques Doucet, the Cotton Bowl wants LSU, but the SEC wants them to take Georgia. For them to take Georgia, however, the Outback Bowl would first have to pass on Georgia, as it's the Outback Bowl that gets first pick. For this even to be on the table, the Outback Bowl must prefer South Carolina to Georgia. Thus we can extrapolate that South Carolina will go to the Outback Bowl. They'll be facing a Big Ten team, either Northwestern or Michigan (not sure which; the same argument for Nebraska applies to Michigan, but in this case, Northwestern actually outperformed Michigan on the field, which may have some sway in the decision).

6. Chik-Fil-A Bowl. Whichever of LSU or Georgia is not selected for the Cotton Bowl will fall here.

In other words, we're down to Cotton or Chik-Fil-A. Nothing's really changed, except that the SEC is apparently pushing to get Georgia into the Cotton Bowl. Their motivation is hard to tell, but it's largely irrelevant; LSU will bring the Cotton Bowl more money, because more LSU fans will be willing to travel to Dallas in these circumstances than will Georgia fans.