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My Rest of Season Analysis FWIW
Posted on 9/28/09 at 5:28 pm
Posted on 9/28/09 at 5:28 pm
I will analyze each team remaining on our schedule and what I think is our chance of winning each game via a percentage.
Georgia: Very similar to LSU...lots of talented athletes, a good coach and team that has not yet found itself. To me, this game will make or break the rest of the LSU season. Chance of LSU victory: 65%
Florida: Great team with a great defense. Florida has the team speed to turn any play into points. LSU will have to play it's best game of the season and win the turnover battle by at least +2 to have a legit shot at winning. Chance of LSU victory: 25%
Auburn: Better than expected, but I think LSU is better. Chance of LSU victory: 75%
Alabama: See Florida
Ole Miss: This team was overhyped in the preseason and will not live up to expectations. However Houston Nutt does have a knack for seeing his teams improve as the season progresses. Chance of LSU victory: 65%
Arkansas: Good offensive team but Mallett is NOT as good as advertised and defense is weak. Chance of LSU victory: 70%
Bowl prediction: LSU vs USC in Rose Bowl
That is all...flame away.
Georgia: Very similar to LSU...lots of talented athletes, a good coach and team that has not yet found itself. To me, this game will make or break the rest of the LSU season. Chance of LSU victory: 65%
Florida: Great team with a great defense. Florida has the team speed to turn any play into points. LSU will have to play it's best game of the season and win the turnover battle by at least +2 to have a legit shot at winning. Chance of LSU victory: 25%
Auburn: Better than expected, but I think LSU is better. Chance of LSU victory: 75%
Alabama: See Florida
Ole Miss: This team was overhyped in the preseason and will not live up to expectations. However Houston Nutt does have a knack for seeing his teams improve as the season progresses. Chance of LSU victory: 65%
Arkansas: Good offensive team but Mallett is NOT as good as advertised and defense is weak. Chance of LSU victory: 70%
Bowl prediction: LSU vs USC in Rose Bowl
That is all...flame away.
6
Posted on 9/28/09 at 5:30 pm to RedShirt
I will take any BCS bowl..
Posted on 9/28/09 at 5:33 pm to Tiger Roux
LSU beats USC and the trojans are named co-national champs.
Posted on 9/28/09 at 5:34 pm to bayourougebengal
quote:
LSU beats USC and the trojans are named co-national champs.
That's funny right there.
Posted on 9/28/09 at 5:36 pm to RedShirt
quote:
what I think is our chance of winning each game via a percentage
I'll have what you're having.
Posted on 9/28/09 at 5:40 pm to RedShirt
Using your predictions and some basic statistics, the Tigers have a 1.39% chance of running the table. Of course, we'll probably face Florida again in the SECCG, which would drop our chances of being undefeated to 0.35%.
SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE!
SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE!
This post was edited on 9/28/09 at 5:41 pm
Posted on 9/28/09 at 5:41 pm to rpears2
quote:
SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE!
Couldn't have said it better myself.
Posted on 9/28/09 at 5:42 pm to RedShirt
quote:
Florida: Great team with a great defense. Florida has the team speed to turn any play into points. LSU will have to play it's best game of the season and win the turnover battle by at least +2 to have a legit shot at winning. Chance of LSU victory: 25%
25%! child please
Posted on 9/28/09 at 5:47 pm to RedShirt
I'll buy a 25% shot against Bama, but it's probably more like 10% against Florida. Bad matchups.
Posted on 9/28/09 at 5:48 pm to RedShirt
vs UGA 50% chance of winning
vs UF 20% if Tebow plays, 15% if Tebow doesn't play
vs Auburn 50% chance
vs Alabama 35% chance
vs Ole Miss 50% chance
vs Arkansas 50% chance
vs Tulane and LaTech 100% chance
So LSU goes 8-4.
vs UF 20% if Tebow plays, 15% if Tebow doesn't play
vs Auburn 50% chance
vs Alabama 35% chance
vs Ole Miss 50% chance
vs Arkansas 50% chance
vs Tulane and LaTech 100% chance
So LSU goes 8-4.
Posted on 9/28/09 at 6:09 pm to EST
Tebow's only worth 5% for chance of victory? Just asking
Posted on 9/28/09 at 6:11 pm to Baloo
quote:
Tebow's only worth 5% for chance of victory? Just asking
I tried to factor the concussion in - if Tebow doesn't play, I figure UF will take a "win for Tebow" type attitude. If Tebow plays injured...you never know.
Posted on 9/28/09 at 6:15 pm to RedShirt
quote:
Bowl prediction: LSU vs USC in Rose Bowl
So, when you say Rose Bowl, I assume you mean the national championship game since in order for LSU to play in the actual Rose Bowl game, it would mean a Big 10 team is playing for the national championship.
So, you're saying a 2-loss LSU team plays for the national championship?
I'd say there's about a 5% chance (and that's probably stretching it) of either one happening.
Posted on 9/28/09 at 6:18 pm to foshizzle
quote:
I'll buy a 25% shot against Bama, but it's probably more like 10% against Florida. Bad matchups.
uhh LSU matches up better with Florida than they do with Alabama, plus it's at home.
Posted on 9/28/09 at 6:19 pm to bayourougebengal
If LSU does not win a BCS Bowl this year, he will definitely feel pressure next year.
Posted on 9/28/09 at 6:19 pm to EST
quote:
vs UF 20% if Tebow plays, 15% if Tebow doesn't play
This may be the dumbest thing I have ever heard.
Posted on 9/28/09 at 6:20 pm to Peachtree Tiger
quote:
If LSU does not win a BCS Bowl this year, he will definitely feel pressure next year.
lol
Posted on 9/28/09 at 7:01 pm to BayouBengals03
8-4
I would be very happy with 9-3.
I would be very happy with 9-3.
Posted on 9/28/09 at 7:17 pm to TX Tiger
quote:
So, when you say Rose Bowl, I assume you mean the national championship game since in order for LSU to play in the actual Rose Bowl game, it would mean a Big 10 team is playing for the national championship.
No, I meant the Rose Bowl and not the MNC game.
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