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re: LSU now +1.5
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:18 pm to Ford Frenzy
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:18 pm to Ford Frenzy
quote:I absolutely concur. I'd say most of the time they know which side they will need when they set the line.
I think they know they can get value on teams from time to time and set a line that looks lopsided when it really isn't...knowing the action will be one sided but also knowing their handicapping is the best in the world
1
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:19 pm to a want
quote:
a want
quote:
So the line constantly adjusts trying to get 50% of the bets for each team.
it's what you said earlier
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:21 pm to a want
quote:This is a bit of an oversimplification as well. The source of the money will determine if the line moves or not, as well. Books are generally pretty good at identifying sharp money as opposed to some Joe that is just dropping a bunch of money on a game.
The movement of the line is a reflection of how people are betting.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:22 pm to BuckheadBetty
quote:
exactly what I said earlier and you're asking me if I'm serious?
I never said number of bets - I said something like "50% of bets". Yes it was vague but I assumed people understood we were talking about amount of best (as in $)not the number of best. You assumed I meant number of bets.
no biggie
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:22 pm to BuckheadBetty
quote:explain patriots game then
The line ALWAYS moves in the direction of the money
ETA: and why do you take this so serious yelling DUMBfrick and stuff?
This post was edited on 10/10/14 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:23 pm to Silky Johnston
quote:finally someone who really gets it and is probably experienced in the game
absolutely concur. I'd say most of the time they know which side they will need when they set the line.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:26 pm to Ford Frenzy
quote:
Oddsmakers don't try to predict the outcome of the game when setting point spreads. If a team is favored by seven points, that doesn't mean that the oddsmaker necessarily thinks it will win by seven points. The oddsmaker's goal when setting the line is to keep an equal number of bets on both sides of the game. The betting public's perception of the game can be as important as the actual comparison of the two teams.
Why do oddsmakers try to keep the action even on both sides of a bet? A bookie's worst fear is being "sided." This happens when many bets come in on one side of a game. If that side turns out to be the winning side, the bookie will lose a lot of money. Ideally, half the bettors lose, and their money goes to pay off the other half, who won, with the bookie taking the vig.
Oddsmakers are so intent on keeping the action even that they actually move the line in response to betting patterns. If too many bets are coming in for the underdog, then that team might have been given too many points, so the line is moved. Bets made prior to the move are still counted at the old line. Some bettors will make additional bets after the line moves, on the opposite side of the game. This is known as middling. For example, let's say the opening line on a football game is Tampa Bay -7; SAN FRANCISCO. A lot of people might think Tampa Bay will beat San Francisco by more than seven points, so they all bet on Tampa. The oddsmaker sees this pattern and moves the line, giving Tampa -10. Now, Tampa has to win by more than ten points for bets placed on Tampa to win. A bettor can place another bet with the new line, this time on San Francisco. If Tampa wins the game by eight points, the bettor has middled -- he's won on both bets.
LINK
This is how it works. Period. You can choose to believe otherwise, but you will be wrong.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:28 pm to a want
still waiting on that patriots explanation
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:29 pm to a want
quote:yes that is generally how it works
This is how it works. Period. You can choose to believe otherwise, but you will be wrong.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:30 pm to Ford Frenzy
ok - line started out at NE -3 (CRIS sportsbook) and NE -3.5 (Pinnacle sportsbook)
78% of the number of bets on the spread are on NE
63% of the number of bets on the moneyline are on NE
83% of the the number of bets on parlays are on NE
Line has dropped to -2.5 at both sportsbooks. That tells you the amount of money wagered on Buffalo (much smaller percentage of bets) is greater than the money wagered on NE (larger percentage of bets).
Info is live and accurate - ask me how I know??? Probably a pretty good indication that I know what the frick I'm talking about.
78% of the number of bets on the spread are on NE
63% of the number of bets on the moneyline are on NE
83% of the the number of bets on parlays are on NE
Line has dropped to -2.5 at both sportsbooks. That tells you the amount of money wagered on Buffalo (much smaller percentage of bets) is greater than the money wagered on NE (larger percentage of bets).
Info is live and accurate - ask me how I know??? Probably a pretty good indication that I know what the frick I'm talking about.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:31 pm to a want
quote:
This is exactly why the line moves. If team A starts out being the favorite by 10 points - and everybody is betting on team A, the line will go up as incentive to bet on team B. This continues until the game starts. They're are constantly adjusting the line trying to get the same amount of money bet on each team. The movement of the line is a reflection of how people are betting.
You can have 98% of bets coming in on one team then one sharp syndicate comes in and takes the other side and that will change the line. Sometimes the sharp guys will bet a line early in the week on the opposite side they actually want to take then pound the line at a number they really want on the other side after driving it up or down.
For the most part the public is never going to move a line. They don't have enough money. So in your Patriots situation from earlier you see the higher percentage coming in on the Patriots but the line moves from 3.5 to 2.5. Assuming you read the above paragraph you can probably deduce why that happened. They do it to offset exposure yes but they also do it to protect themselves from more professionals coming in and taking what is now considered a good number. And if you don't think vegas ever takes a position on some games knowing they have they right side of a number you are crazy.
quote:
a want
It's okay to be wrong man. Jesus. You obviously don't have a good grasp of how this works but instead of doing some independent research you just keep saying your own views (which are incorrect) over and over again instead of thinking to yourself wow maybe I am not the expert authority on all knowledgeable things maybe there are other humans who know slightly more than I about some subjects.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:31 pm to a want
Generally, yes. Look up the term "reverse line movement" and report back.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:32 pm to BuckheadBetty
quote:scoresandodds uses money not number of bets im almost certain
Line has dropped to -2.5 at both sportsbooks. That tells you the amount of money wagered on Buffalo (much smaller percentage of bets) is greater than the money wagered on NE (larger percentage of bets).
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:33 pm to Silky Johnston
quote:This.
Generally, yes. Look up the term "reverse line movement" and report back.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:33 pm to Silky Johnston
quote:
Look up the term "reverse line movement" and report back.
see my explanation on NE game. that's reverse line movement
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:35 pm to Ford Frenzy
quote:
scoresandodds uses money not number of bets im almost certain
nope and not a live site. not a bad place for info but much better out there if you want better
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:39 pm to BuckheadBetty
quote:according to you it wasn't because you said more money was coming in on the Bills
see my explanation on NE game. that's reverse line movement
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:43 pm to Ford Frenzy
quote:
according to you it wasn't because you said more money was coming in on the Bills
poor kid - you just don't get it. It is reverse line movement 100%. Read better. Take your time and comprehend. Processing information may not be your strength but I trust you can find a coloring book this afternoon to pass the time.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:46 pm to BuckheadBetty
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:47 pm to BuckheadBetty
quote:
BuckheadBetty
I'd let it go. It's obvious "Ford Frenzy" and "a want" can't possibly be wrong about this or from the way they have responded anything for that matter. The worst thing about people who don't get it is they don't get that they don't get it
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