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Jordan Jefferson's Improvement (w/ stats)
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:43 pm
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:43 pm
I hear people all the time say that JJ is improving greatly every game and that he is much better than he was last year. Based on observation alone, I disagree since I still see him doing these things and haven't seen him making any progress with them:
1. Staring down WRs.
2. Holding onto the ball too long.
3. Dropping back 7-10 yards making it easy for the D to get a sack.
4. Not seeing wide open WRs.
So, I decided to take a look at stats to see if I'm being too harsh, or if some are imagining that he's making great strides. I pulled stats from his first start (against Arkansas), the 2008 season (including Ole Miss, since he had 20 pass attempts in that game), and the 2009 season. See for yourself and make your own judgments on his level of improvement.
First Start (vs Arkansas, 2008):
Passing:
9/21, 143 yards, 2 TDs, 4 sacks, 0 INTs
42% completion rate
Rushing:
19, 50 yards; 2.6/carry, 0 rushing TDs
2008 Averages:
Passing:
11.6/22, 145.3 yards, 1.3 TDs, 3 sacks, .33 INTs
52% completion rate
Rushing:
13, 32.6 yards; 2.5/carry, 0 rushing TDs
2009 Averages:
Passing:
14.7/23.3, 170 yards, 1.3 TDs, 2.6 sacks, .44 INTs
63% completion rate
Rushing:
9.3, 17.6 yards; 1.9/carry, 1 rushing TD (.1/game)
My observations:
+ He's only attempting about 1 more pass/game than last year.
+ He's raised his completion rate by 11%, which is very significant.
+ He's added about 25 yards/game passing
- He's rushing less, with less success than before.
- He's still averaging 1.3 TD passes/game. Zero improvement in that area.
1. Staring down WRs.
2. Holding onto the ball too long.
3. Dropping back 7-10 yards making it easy for the D to get a sack.
4. Not seeing wide open WRs.
So, I decided to take a look at stats to see if I'm being too harsh, or if some are imagining that he's making great strides. I pulled stats from his first start (against Arkansas), the 2008 season (including Ole Miss, since he had 20 pass attempts in that game), and the 2009 season. See for yourself and make your own judgments on his level of improvement.
First Start (vs Arkansas, 2008):
Passing:
9/21, 143 yards, 2 TDs, 4 sacks, 0 INTs
42% completion rate
Rushing:
19, 50 yards; 2.6/carry, 0 rushing TDs
2008 Averages:
Passing:
11.6/22, 145.3 yards, 1.3 TDs, 3 sacks, .33 INTs
52% completion rate
Rushing:
13, 32.6 yards; 2.5/carry, 0 rushing TDs
2009 Averages:
Passing:
14.7/23.3, 170 yards, 1.3 TDs, 2.6 sacks, .44 INTs
63% completion rate
Rushing:
9.3, 17.6 yards; 1.9/carry, 1 rushing TD (.1/game)
My observations:
+ He's only attempting about 1 more pass/game than last year.
+ He's raised his completion rate by 11%, which is very significant.
+ He's added about 25 yards/game passing
- He's rushing less, with less success than before.
- He's still averaging 1.3 TD passes/game. Zero improvement in that area.
5
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:48 pm to hashtag
I'm not sure if you can compare the two seasons. Last year is to small of a sample. I would use a game by game comparison from this year. Did you use the bowl game in your comparison?
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:49 pm to hashtag
jj good quarterback just no o;line to shed time 
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:50 pm to hashtag
he does not have a problem with staring down receivers. he frequently looks off safeties. On some plays he does, but so do a lot of QB's. And when RJ jackson is getting a ton of receptions, it means check-downs are being made.
Other than that nice post.
Other than that nice post.
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:51 pm to tiger band trumpet
quote:
Did you use the bowl game in your comparison?
yeah. people have dreamed up that he had a Matt Flynn vs. Miami type game against GT. JJ's stats from that game:
16/25, 56% completion rate, 142 yards, 1 TD, 2 sacks, 0 INTs
10 rushes, for 25 yards.
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:53 pm to hashtag
I knew he completed 16 or 17 passes, but the 11.6 completions per game seemed a little low.
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:55 pm to jmitc22
quote:
he does not have a problem with staring down receivers. he frequently looks off safeties. On some plays he does, but so do a lot of QB's. And when RJ jackson is getting a ton of receptions, it means check-downs are being made.
Other than that nice post.
Look, I'm not trying to be harsh, but you're just wrong here. He stares down WRs on 75-90% of the passing plays. And, I don't think it's his fault. Matt Flynn did the same thing in 07, Lee did the same thing in 08. I think it is more of a coaching deal. The coaches call a ton of pass plays that are curls, short posts, etc. After seeing 3 QBs do it, I think they coach them to look at that WR and throw it there immediately. This has happened far too often the last 3 years for it to be a coincidence.
But, I was there in Tiger Stadium when he was staring down WRs left and right against both Auburn and Tulane and missing wide open WRs. Heck, he'd probably have had atleast 2 more TDs in each of those games if he could go through a progression.
Posted on 11/15/09 at 10:10 pm to tiger band trumpet
quote:
I knew he completed 16 or 17 passes, but the 11.6 completions per game seemed a little low.
that's what happens when you can't complete more than 5 passes in the 2nd half of games.
2nd half completions in 2008:
Ole Miss: 5
Arkansas: 3
GT: 5
it also doesn't help when you struggle to get 1st downs on passing plays in the 2nd half. 2nd half first down stats from those games:
Ole Miss: 5 first downs, 3 passing
Arkansas: 3 first downs, 1 passing
GT: 6 first downs, 1 passing (by our Dalfrey on a fake punt)
Jordan Jefferson really struggled in the 2nd half of games last year. And, he's even struggled some this year in the 2nd half.
Posted on 11/15/09 at 10:21 pm to hashtag
im not trying to be harsh either...just pointing out what i've noticed. And I was at all of the games. And also watched 3 of the games twice. And watched quite a few offensive plays in slow motion just to see what was going on.
He has at times stared down receivers, but as a whole has done as good of a job as can be expected, and in many instances better than i would expect.
Watch a few Saints games. Even Drew Brees stares down receivers at times.
And even where JJ does stare down receivers, if they are not open, he does not make the throw. If they are, he does. If he stared down receivers and it was a problem we would see more interceptions.
He has at times stared down receivers, but as a whole has done as good of a job as can be expected, and in many instances better than i would expect.
Watch a few Saints games. Even Drew Brees stares down receivers at times.
And even where JJ does stare down receivers, if they are not open, he does not make the throw. If they are, he does. If he stared down receivers and it was a problem we would see more interceptions.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 12:45 am to jmitc22
On his rushing stats, keep in mind sacks count against his rushing yards.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 12:59 am to bayourougebengal
great stats, but he have been doing better ever since his lost to Florida. If that doesnt improvement then you just want to bash the kid for trying to play for the Tigers and representing us.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 1:43 am to LSUisOVER9000
The important thing is that he isn't getting sacked as much as he used to...
........DAMN!
........DAMN!
Posted on 11/16/09 at 1:52 am to hashtag
He's shown decent progression. JJ's play is the least of my concerns.
Posted on 11/16/09 at 7:44 am to hashtag
quote:
2008 Averages:
Passing:
11.6/22, 145.3 yards, 1.3 TDs, 3 sacks, .33 INTs
52% completion rate
Rushing:
13, 32.6 yards; 2.5/carry, 0 rushing TDs
2009 Averages:
Passing:
14.7/23.3, 170 yards, 1.3 TDs, 2.6 sacks, .44 INTs
63% completion rate
Rushing:
9.3, 17.6 yards; 1.9/carry, 1 rushing TD (.1/game)
I think Miles/Crowton will open up the playbook more for Jefferson in his junior season. The O-line should improve and he will throw for more TD's and get less sacks. His interception avg will go up because he will take more risks with more shots downfield and smaller windows. He will find a good balance of pass/run with a higher ypc due to less sacks and better decision making. I see him getting a TD 10+ yards out and 2 from QB sneaks in goal line situations.
2010 Averages:
Passing:
16/25, 220 yards, 2 TDs, 2 sacks, .5 INTs
64% completion rate
Rushing:
10, 30 yards; 3/carry, 3 rushing TD (.3/game)
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