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Started By
Message
If we win out . . .
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:17 pm
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:17 pm
we have an [ X ] percent chance of getting in. Take your guess. Mine is in the 70s or 80s.
17
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:18 pm to Tiger in NYC
43%
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:19 pm to aVatiger
0%. Not trolling, just think there's no way we get in with all these other schools ahead of us
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:21 pm to Fus0623
That's just not true. It's not even close to true.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:23 pm to Tiger in NYC
0.010912%
This post was edited on 11/11/15 at 10:27 pm
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:24 pm to Fus0623
Wow that's crazy..
Ohio St was 14th at this point with a terrible 2 TD loss at home to a horrible VT team.. they got in with 1 loss..
we win out and look impressive we will be considered.
so many teams have yet to knock each other out.. we only have 5 spots to climb.. and we would jump similar 1 loss teams if we win out.. especially if Bama drops a game and go to the SEC championship.
I think 40's sounds pretty legit. Again, this is if we win out. Regardless what else goes down. A 1 loss SEC team that lost on the road to a great team will be considered.
Ohio St was 14th at this point with a terrible 2 TD loss at home to a horrible VT team.. they got in with 1 loss..
we win out and look impressive we will be considered.
so many teams have yet to knock each other out.. we only have 5 spots to climb.. and we would jump similar 1 loss teams if we win out.. especially if Bama drops a game and go to the SEC championship.
I think 40's sounds pretty legit. Again, this is if we win out. Regardless what else goes down. A 1 loss SEC team that lost on the road to a great team will be considered.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:29 pm to beauchristopher
quote:
Ohio St was 14th at this point with a terrible 2 TD loss at home to a horrible VT team.. they got in with 1 loss..
They also won their league.
LSU has a 0% chance of getting in without a Bama loss.
Any other 1 loss conference champion will get in above LSU.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:30 pm to Tiger in NYC
Bama has to lose for LSU to get in.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:31 pm to beauchristopher
We've got to destroy the last 3 teams we face so that we can pass the eye test of the committee, I don't care if it's 38-0 and we are on the 20 yard line with 30 seconds to go we need to try and score again
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:34 pm to Tiger in NYC
Several teams ranked ahead of us will lose, so I'll say 60%. Michigan is going to beat OSU. Bama could lose and if Clemson is No. 1 going into their last week of the regular season at USCe, anything could happen in that game. IF we win out, we will have a more impressive resume than anyone.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:36 pm to Tiger in NYC
Assuming ND looses we would have the "best" loss. UF would be the best win esp if they beat FSU. Bama loss would certainly help but even if they win out its not impossible for us sneak into the 4 spot. Pull for Oregon Saturday.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:37 pm to Tiger in NYC
0
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:41 pm to Tiger in NYC
If we win out other things still have to happen. There are eight teams ahead of us.
8 and 6 play each other. We would then need 12 to beat 8.
4 and 7 play each other.
3 will play 5 if 3 does not lose to 13 and/or 14.
The bottom line is that some ahead of us will lose. Some will probably lose. We are not out yet.
One big issue is that, at 2, we lost to 4 and dropped to 9. If 3 loses to 12 or 13, they will only drop to 5 or six. The committee loves some 3.
8 and 6 play each other. We would then need 12 to beat 8.
4 and 7 play each other.
3 will play 5 if 3 does not lose to 13 and/or 14.
The bottom line is that some ahead of us will lose. Some will probably lose. We are not out yet.
One big issue is that, at 2, we lost to 4 and dropped to 9. If 3 loses to 12 or 13, they will only drop to 5 or six. The committee loves some 3.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:43 pm to Tiger in NYC
10%. Only way we're getting in is if Bama loses. They will not let 2 SEC teams into the playoffs unless EVERYONE ends up losing. It's playoff politics. The real reason it was made was to prevent all the money being guaranteed to the SEC every year getting automatic NC bids. They want to spread the money fairly between the conferences even if they don't deserve it. They'll use the excuse we got dominated by Bama, didn't play in SEC championship and -1 game due to cancel. Should be 8 teams not 4. LSU's schedule is pretty strong. Might be one of the strongest in top 15 with the exception to Notre Dame.
This post was edited on 11/11/15 at 10:47 pm
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:45 pm to massiveattack
quote:
Any other 1 loss conference champion will get in above LSU.
But,
1-Loss LSU > 2-Loss Conference Champ
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:45 pm to Tiger in NYC
At the end of the day, the college football playoff committee is run by people. There is no way in hell they are putting two SEC teams, one of which who didn't even play in the SEC championship game, into the CFP. Unless Bama loses, zero shot.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:56 pm to Jcorye1
Everyone is talking about Alabama having to lose for us to have a shot. Maybe true, maybe not. But the point is that Alabama could surely lose. So there is some statistical chance that if LSU wins out, they might sneak into the playoff. What I'm asking is what is that number?
Posted on 11/11/15 at 10:56 pm to Jcorye1
1. Alabama 12-1 SEC Champ
2. Ohio St./Mich. St./Iowa 13-0 or 12-1 B1G Champ
3. Big 12 Champ: 12-0 or 11-1
4. LSU 10-1
UCLA 11-2 PAC-12 Champ
North Carolina 11-2 ACC Champ
Notre Dame 10-2
2. Ohio St./Mich. St./Iowa 13-0 or 12-1 B1G Champ
3. Big 12 Champ: 12-0 or 11-1
4. LSU 10-1
UCLA 11-2 PAC-12 Champ
North Carolina 11-2 ACC Champ
Notre Dame 10-2
Posted on 11/11/15 at 11:40 pm to Tiger in NYC
less than 10%
Posted on 11/11/15 at 11:42 pm to Tiger in NYC
I'm fairly sure we'll make it if we win out. But we have to win convincingly and shown up as a complete team. And forget the Heisman campaign for the greater good.
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