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Message
Hard Cold Truths
Posted on 9/17/17 at 10:18 pm
Posted on 9/17/17 at 10:18 pm
Fresh home from my first road SEC game (15 years going to home games). Starkville, though in middle of nowhere, ain't that bad. And even though I'm sure most of their fans probably had to drive at least an hour they did stay the whole game for obvious blowout reasons. Met the parents of 2 different star LSU players who independent of each other said Les Miles isn't likeable. But that's a topic for another day.
Let's divide the blame and put forth a few ideas.
5%: refs. Any penalty that results in 15 yards or more or negates or creates a score must be reviewed. You simply cannot crush a team's momentum or take away multiple scores without any real time verification. We can stop play for targeting reviews which in most cases are bang-bang plays happening very fast, but we can't review a bogus pass interference call?
25%: Delayed Flight Air Canada. Watching the replay of the game Canada's play calling wasn't as bad as I thought at the game. But let's face it, we are who we are and have what we have. The shifts and jets sweeps didn't work against BYU (by work I mean created explosive opportunities), our talent differential did, which for most SEC teams such differential doesn't exist. The offensive game plan through 3 games is predictable: Guice up middle with the LF7 treatment (stacked box) or Chark deep. The Chark TD that was called back was amazingly set up but after that play other than DW #28 who's getting the 2016 Guice treatment (when LF7 was out teams didn't stack box as much, giving Guice better opportunities), we were stale and predictable. The solutions for this lies in....
...10%: Aranda. The perfect game plan to beat a team that is waaaaay better than you was first displayed when Tennessee came to Tiger Stadium and beat us with noodle arm Clausen. You won't beat a team just as good or waaaaay better than you running up the gut or dropping back 7 steps trying to air it out. That game noodle arm Clausen dink and dunked it underneath intermediate to RBs and TEs the whole game. To quote MSU Fitzgerald, they had rollouts, bootlegs, and a variety of blocking schemes of the OL that gave noodle arm the necessary protection and running backs moving extra blockers against a better defense. Now, diehard LSU fan like me doesn't need to go back 12 years to understand that...how about last week to Chattanooga...I repeat CHATTANOOGA who strung together a few decent drives using the exact same strategy, a strategy that Flight delayed Air Canada should adopt: multiple blocking schemes from OL for both run and pass, rollouts and bootlegs and intermediate routes of 10 to 20 yards by WRs and check downs for TEs, RBs that would give them space to create further. But back to Aranda, he obviously had team 1A and 1B, for which 1B had players that doesn't need to play. Ed Paris sucks. Kevin Tolliver sucks. A few DLs suck. By the time Aranda figured out how to adjust and who to play, we had injuries, ejections, players tired, some losing their cool, a few may have quit after the game got out of hand.
10% players: most of these players acting like it's guaranteed they can make it to NFL and will be able to support their families. Only 3 returning players have made a drastic improvement to their individual game: DJ Chark, Darrel Williams and Rashard Lawrence. Everyone else that's been impressive on defense are freshmen and most of the offense is not that much better than last year. Forget BYU and Chattanooga, the measuring stick is not who you beat but who you fought and after fighting equal competition...where is the improvement from Drizzy Drake Davis or the other WRs? JD Moore has taken a step backwards. And have we gotten anything from the TEs? Etling is still who he is, a quarterback who could win against decent teams at home but won't carry us to a victory against a meaningful team home or away.
50%: Orgeron and Alleva. Now I'm not saying O should be fired but there are some glaring mistakes made thus far. The fact we didn't show much against lesser opponents. The fact that you're practically bragging about not running much 4 WRs sets...until you're forced to down 30 on road in SEC. The fact that you're playing numerous players on defense who hasn't been good enough to play last couple years (sorry Ed Paris) but we have audacity to switch Jacoby Stevens to offense and only play home few plays against Chattanooga. The fact that you're a defensive line specialist and the second we lose our best DL we get bulldog'd, pun intended. I blame Alleva for 2 things. First, the trend in hiring today is offensive geniuses or at least someone who is an expert of either offense or defense. In hiring O you're basically saying we're hiring a manager. Though Saban is a defensive genius, he effectively is a manager who forces everyone to adhere to the highest of standards possible. I don't think that's O though it can and should change. Secondly, Alleva should have been more creative in the hiring process, at least in the offers made. After one loss with the likelihood of a few more, would it have been bad to make *cough* Lane Kiffin, say a 2 year offer with a buyout clause after one year with Aranda as assistant head coach?
I'm not gonna throw in the towel yet on O or Canada or these players. O is smart enough to know good or bad, this is it for him. As such changes will be made.
Let's divide the blame and put forth a few ideas.
5%: refs. Any penalty that results in 15 yards or more or negates or creates a score must be reviewed. You simply cannot crush a team's momentum or take away multiple scores without any real time verification. We can stop play for targeting reviews which in most cases are bang-bang plays happening very fast, but we can't review a bogus pass interference call?
25%: Delayed Flight Air Canada. Watching the replay of the game Canada's play calling wasn't as bad as I thought at the game. But let's face it, we are who we are and have what we have. The shifts and jets sweeps didn't work against BYU (by work I mean created explosive opportunities), our talent differential did, which for most SEC teams such differential doesn't exist. The offensive game plan through 3 games is predictable: Guice up middle with the LF7 treatment (stacked box) or Chark deep. The Chark TD that was called back was amazingly set up but after that play other than DW #28 who's getting the 2016 Guice treatment (when LF7 was out teams didn't stack box as much, giving Guice better opportunities), we were stale and predictable. The solutions for this lies in....
...10%: Aranda. The perfect game plan to beat a team that is waaaaay better than you was first displayed when Tennessee came to Tiger Stadium and beat us with noodle arm Clausen. You won't beat a team just as good or waaaaay better than you running up the gut or dropping back 7 steps trying to air it out. That game noodle arm Clausen dink and dunked it underneath intermediate to RBs and TEs the whole game. To quote MSU Fitzgerald, they had rollouts, bootlegs, and a variety of blocking schemes of the OL that gave noodle arm the necessary protection and running backs moving extra blockers against a better defense. Now, diehard LSU fan like me doesn't need to go back 12 years to understand that...how about last week to Chattanooga...I repeat CHATTANOOGA who strung together a few decent drives using the exact same strategy, a strategy that Flight delayed Air Canada should adopt: multiple blocking schemes from OL for both run and pass, rollouts and bootlegs and intermediate routes of 10 to 20 yards by WRs and check downs for TEs, RBs that would give them space to create further. But back to Aranda, he obviously had team 1A and 1B, for which 1B had players that doesn't need to play. Ed Paris sucks. Kevin Tolliver sucks. A few DLs suck. By the time Aranda figured out how to adjust and who to play, we had injuries, ejections, players tired, some losing their cool, a few may have quit after the game got out of hand.
10% players: most of these players acting like it's guaranteed they can make it to NFL and will be able to support their families. Only 3 returning players have made a drastic improvement to their individual game: DJ Chark, Darrel Williams and Rashard Lawrence. Everyone else that's been impressive on defense are freshmen and most of the offense is not that much better than last year. Forget BYU and Chattanooga, the measuring stick is not who you beat but who you fought and after fighting equal competition...where is the improvement from Drizzy Drake Davis or the other WRs? JD Moore has taken a step backwards. And have we gotten anything from the TEs? Etling is still who he is, a quarterback who could win against decent teams at home but won't carry us to a victory against a meaningful team home or away.
50%: Orgeron and Alleva. Now I'm not saying O should be fired but there are some glaring mistakes made thus far. The fact we didn't show much against lesser opponents. The fact that you're practically bragging about not running much 4 WRs sets...until you're forced to down 30 on road in SEC. The fact that you're playing numerous players on defense who hasn't been good enough to play last couple years (sorry Ed Paris) but we have audacity to switch Jacoby Stevens to offense and only play home few plays against Chattanooga. The fact that you're a defensive line specialist and the second we lose our best DL we get bulldog'd, pun intended. I blame Alleva for 2 things. First, the trend in hiring today is offensive geniuses or at least someone who is an expert of either offense or defense. In hiring O you're basically saying we're hiring a manager. Though Saban is a defensive genius, he effectively is a manager who forces everyone to adhere to the highest of standards possible. I don't think that's O though it can and should change. Secondly, Alleva should have been more creative in the hiring process, at least in the offers made. After one loss with the likelihood of a few more, would it have been bad to make *cough* Lane Kiffin, say a 2 year offer with a buyout clause after one year with Aranda as assistant head coach?
I'm not gonna throw in the towel yet on O or Canada or these players. O is smart enough to know good or bad, this is it for him. As such changes will be made.
4
Posted on 9/17/17 at 10:30 pm to keepitrealgoeswrong
After enduring the bi-polar Les Miles era, the dinardo era and witnessing the full on shite show of the Hallman era, I have seen enough shite shows to know when the red flags pop up. They are flying. You wrote a good breakdown of much of it and I agree with it for the most part.
But the LSU problem is a systemic one. The only way you get rid of systemic issues is with a complete reset. There is not a bandaid fix to it. It has to be completely reset. O should have never been hired, and Alleva should have been fired. Until we clean house, LSU's issues will continue leading to more fans disappointed with apathy leading to a complete lost in faith of the program. My point is that LSU needs to be more proactive, acknowledge the issue before this rabbit hole gets deeper. IF not, LSU will enter another dark era of the program. We are starting to enter it, but it still can be reversed with a complete 1999 Reset Part II
But the LSU problem is a systemic one. The only way you get rid of systemic issues is with a complete reset. There is not a bandaid fix to it. It has to be completely reset. O should have never been hired, and Alleva should have been fired. Until we clean house, LSU's issues will continue leading to more fans disappointed with apathy leading to a complete lost in faith of the program. My point is that LSU needs to be more proactive, acknowledge the issue before this rabbit hole gets deeper. IF not, LSU will enter another dark era of the program. We are starting to enter it, but it still can be reversed with a complete 1999 Reset Part II
This post was edited on 9/17/17 at 10:31 pm
Posted on 9/17/17 at 10:42 pm to sheek
The question becomes what's the worst you're willing to settle for in order to justify no changes being made? I'm afraid the worst case scenario is 3 loses...that would enable us to have with everyone back doing the same thing next year where we have another 3 loses. I think O is smart and real enough to know it's drastic changes (or adjustments)
Posted on 9/17/17 at 10:42 pm to keepitrealgoeswrong
10% Aranda? My arse.
His defense allowed almost 300 yards rushing along with nearly 200 yards passing, while forcing 0 turnovers and giving up 37 points.
That's fricking trash.
His defense allowed almost 300 yards rushing along with nearly 200 yards passing, while forcing 0 turnovers and giving up 37 points.
That's fricking trash.
Posted on 9/17/17 at 10:47 pm to January9th2017
I think 10% is fair. He made some glaring mistakes. Like defensive team 1A anchored by arden key or 1B anchored by Chaisson. Team 1B had players who shouldn't have been in the game, especially when players on 1A did much better. Aranda has to answer for that. But you can't make him answer for injuries, ejections, penalties and players giving up. He should make adjustments for all of those things going forward
Posted on 9/17/17 at 10:48 pm to keepitrealgoeswrong
quote:
Hard Cold Truths by keepitrealgoeswrong The question becomes what's the worst you're willing to settle for in order to justify no changes being made? I'm afraid the worst case scenario is 3 loses...that would enable us to have with everyone back doing the same thing next year where we have another 3 loses. I think O is smart and real enough to know it's drastic changes (or adjustments)
I think the answer to the intial question depends on the powers at LSU. For me it's 3 loses no more than 4. Anything thing beyond that is unacceptable. But in year 2 and 3, LsU has to make a serious run to win the West. If O shits the bed, see my first post.
Posted on 9/17/17 at 10:56 pm to keepitrealgoeswrong
You're WAAAAAAAAAY off base:
25%: O-line. We're young, small, and thin. We are literally 2 injuries away from starting true freshmen walk-ons. Let that sink in. Mississippi State was deeper, more experienced, and bigger. They struggled in pass protection, causing Etling to hurry and miss some obvious reads.
35%: D-line: Once again, we're young, thin, and beaten to hell. Key was still coming back from injury and we lose another player to a targeting penalty. Our young thin line managed to hold up last year due to miraculous luck with the injury bug and outstanding back 7 play. Their O-line was bigger, deeper, and more experienced than our d-line, and once we lost too many players, we didn't have the depth to hold up mid-late game. Once our guys were winded, there was no relief and they couldn't get off the field.
20% WR's: Once again, we're young and inexperienced at WR, but that is no excuse for the number of drops we saw. I counted no fewer than 6 drops that would have resulted in points or first downs that instead killed drives. Etling put the ball where they could make the play, the play calling had them open, and they simply didn't execute. This is inexcusable and MUST be addressed.
20% Coach O: His players played without discipline, racking up nearly a dozen bonehead penalties, getting frustrated, and then, the most inexcusable thing possible happened to this team in the 3rd quarter: they gave up. That is 100% on the Coach. Coach O cannot give up nor can he allow his team to give up. Once of the great hallmarks of Miles's teams was that they fought and scrapped right up until the final possession (unless the other team had the ball, in which Chief would make sure they'd score). Issues of lack of depth and inexperience can be solved with time and recruiting, but issues of lack of focus and determination must be solved IMMEDIATELY or else they will snowball.
We knew coming into this season that our biggest issues would be depth on the lines and inexperience at WR. Pre-season injuries greatly exasperated the line issues. We are seeing the consequences of years of early departures and high ranked recruiting classes with out of whack priorities.
25%: O-line. We're young, small, and thin. We are literally 2 injuries away from starting true freshmen walk-ons. Let that sink in. Mississippi State was deeper, more experienced, and bigger. They struggled in pass protection, causing Etling to hurry and miss some obvious reads.
35%: D-line: Once again, we're young, thin, and beaten to hell. Key was still coming back from injury and we lose another player to a targeting penalty. Our young thin line managed to hold up last year due to miraculous luck with the injury bug and outstanding back 7 play. Their O-line was bigger, deeper, and more experienced than our d-line, and once we lost too many players, we didn't have the depth to hold up mid-late game. Once our guys were winded, there was no relief and they couldn't get off the field.
20% WR's: Once again, we're young and inexperienced at WR, but that is no excuse for the number of drops we saw. I counted no fewer than 6 drops that would have resulted in points or first downs that instead killed drives. Etling put the ball where they could make the play, the play calling had them open, and they simply didn't execute. This is inexcusable and MUST be addressed.
20% Coach O: His players played without discipline, racking up nearly a dozen bonehead penalties, getting frustrated, and then, the most inexcusable thing possible happened to this team in the 3rd quarter: they gave up. That is 100% on the Coach. Coach O cannot give up nor can he allow his team to give up. Once of the great hallmarks of Miles's teams was that they fought and scrapped right up until the final possession (unless the other team had the ball, in which Chief would make sure they'd score). Issues of lack of depth and inexperience can be solved with time and recruiting, but issues of lack of focus and determination must be solved IMMEDIATELY or else they will snowball.
We knew coming into this season that our biggest issues would be depth on the lines and inexperience at WR. Pre-season injuries greatly exasperated the line issues. We are seeing the consequences of years of early departures and high ranked recruiting classes with out of whack priorities.
This post was edited on 9/17/17 at 11:01 pm
Posted on 9/17/17 at 11:04 pm to kingbob
By blaming the players more than the coaches you proved my point. Fitzgerald was quoted as saying something to the effect of when he ran he always had multiple blockers in front of him. Now tell me how often did we have varied blocking schemes? For example how often would 2 OL pull to the open side of the field blocking for Guice? I know that MSU did that all game because they as coaches are smart enough they couldn't beat up employing our style of coaching/playing of let's see who's stronger in the trenches. Our coaches have to do more to put our players in positions to win. You can't keep asking Guice to run up the middle with 8 or 9 in the box. You can't keep asking Chark to run fly routes double covered with Etling throwing him the ball. And you can't keep asking our OL and DL to be predict up front.
Posted on 9/17/17 at 11:11 pm to keepitrealgoeswrong
quote:
By blaming the players more than the coaches you proved my point.
Issues of depth are not the fault of the players on the field today. Blame falls squarely on the shoulders of LSU's recruiting staff over the past 4 years and the players who left early.
quote:
Our coaches have to do more to put our players in positions to win. You can't keep asking Guice to run up the middle with 8 or 9 in the box.
Our RB's were averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
quote:
You can't keep asking Chark to run fly
Half the time he was wide arse open because the safeties were in the box. Chark just couldn't hold onto the ball. Chark had more drops than catches.
There was nothing wrong with the play selection. The best run/pass mixture in the world will not work if the linemen commit penalties and the WR's cannot catch.
This post was edited on 9/17/17 at 11:13 pm
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:23 am to January9th2017
Yes, Aranda cannot escape responsibility, and I am sure he knows that.
Every LSU coach including him, did a very poor job, both in preparing the team to play and in the way they coached the players in this joke of a game.
Every LSU coach including him, did a very poor job, both in preparing the team to play and in the way they coached the players in this joke of a game.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:31 am to keepitrealgoeswrong
quote:
Met the parents of 2 different star LSU players who independent of each other said Les Miles isn't likeable.
Uh, say what you want about his Coaching but the players all loved Les. If these parents didnt like Les imo it wasnt for the person he is but the coach he was.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:36 am to keepitrealgoeswrong
quote:
worst case scenario is 3 loses
shite that's best case at this point. This team will not beat bama, auburn, florida and probably Tenn...add the bowl game and you're looking at a 7-6 or 8-5 season.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:31 am to kingbob
quote:Right after O hired Dameyune Craig 2.0 to coach WR's, I said to watch out for continued WR drops because Joseph is a Recruiter, not a technical WR Coach that can coach up his position athletes.
WR's: Once again, we're young and inexperienced at WR, but that is no excuse for the number of drops we saw. I counted no fewer than 6 drops that would have resulted in points or first downs that instead killed drives.
He doesn't know the finer points of catching a football and running great routes because he's never done it before.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 6:41 am to kingbob
quote:
Half the time he was wide arse open because the safeties were in the box. Chark just couldn't hold onto the ball. Chark had more drops than catches
After Chark had the long to catch for a TD MSU keep a safety over top on him efrectively doubling him the rest of the game. Canada tried little quick routes for him in 2nd half which got him a couple catches. Yeah he had a big drop down the middle late in the game, but taking into account the circumstance (down big) and the throw (slightly rushed, trying to make a play) I'm not holding that against him.
As far as the running goes, other than a safety doubling chark, everyone else was effectively in the box. A little more offensive creativity and less predictability maybe spreads their defense out more and that 4.8 yards a carry maybe is 6
Posted on 9/18/17 at 6:49 am to semjase
quote:
I said to watch out for continued WR drops because Joseph is a Recruiter, not a technical WR Coach that can coach up his position athletes.
I don't disagree about the technical part, but what evidence do we have to show he's a good recruiter?
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