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Baseball is basically a 50/50 sport. (statistics)
Posted on 6/13/16 at 12:29 pm
Posted on 6/13/16 at 12:29 pm
2 of 12 champions have been national seeds = 16.7%
In NCAA tourney, national seeds only make up 8/64 competitors = 12.5%.
In other words, assuming that all teams are equally likely to win any given game, you would expect the national seeds to be champions 12 or 13 times out of 100. Thus far, we have seen 2/12, and it is likely that we'll see 2/13.
A more telling statistic is the outcomes of Super Regionals.
57% of the time, it's a sweep
21% of the time, Game 1 winner wins in 3.
21% of the time, Game 1 winner loses in 3.
(Got this from broadcast last night).
Assuming each team is equal and has exactly 50% chance of winning, the expected outcomes would be:
50% sweeps
25% Game 1 winner wins in 3.
25% Game 1 winner loses in 3.
You can see that real-life results are not that much different than a true 50/50 matchup.
What does it all mean? Basically, if you don't have a completely dominant team that is clearly better than all others, you need luck to win a championship, a lot of it.
In NCAA tourney, national seeds only make up 8/64 competitors = 12.5%.
In other words, assuming that all teams are equally likely to win any given game, you would expect the national seeds to be champions 12 or 13 times out of 100. Thus far, we have seen 2/12, and it is likely that we'll see 2/13.
A more telling statistic is the outcomes of Super Regionals.
57% of the time, it's a sweep
21% of the time, Game 1 winner wins in 3.
21% of the time, Game 1 winner loses in 3.
(Got this from broadcast last night).
Assuming each team is equal and has exactly 50% chance of winning, the expected outcomes would be:
50% sweeps
25% Game 1 winner wins in 3.
25% Game 1 winner loses in 3.
You can see that real-life results are not that much different than a true 50/50 matchup.
What does it all mean? Basically, if you don't have a completely dominant team that is clearly better than all others, you need luck to win a championship, a lot of it.
9
Posted on 6/13/16 at 12:34 pm to victoire sécurisé
You're gonna tell me our team was equal to their team with regard to fire and fundamental soundness?
Posted on 6/13/16 at 12:41 pm to victoire sécurisé
quote:I don't think this is accurate, but maybe so.
25% Game 1 winner wins in 3.
25% Game 1 winner loses in 3.
edit:
I just looked at it quickly dating back to 2007 and there were 46 sweeps and 34 3-game supers.
edit edit:
Game 1 winner won 18 times in game 3
Game 1 loser won 15 times in game 3
(pending FL/FL ST today)
This post was edited on 6/13/16 at 1:46 pm
Posted on 6/13/16 at 12:43 pm to victoire sécurisé
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/13/16 at 12:46 pm
Posted on 6/13/16 at 12:43 pm to poochie
Yep. Equal.
LSU didn't show "fire" because they were behind most of the time.
LSU was one of the most fundamentally sound clubs all year. Great fielding percentage, great discipline at the plate. It just seems like CCU was so much better because of the small sample size.
Would you look back at the season and say that Alabama was a more fundamentally sound club with more fire? You would say that if you only looked at that one series where the two clubs played head-to-head. On the season, LSU proved to be better.
In other words, two good teams played, and the outcomes were close. LSU is not terrible in comparison. It just seems that way because you're only looking at the final result, 0-2.
Again, this is the case in nearly ALL competitive baseball, not just LSU/CCU.
LSU didn't show "fire" because they were behind most of the time.
LSU was one of the most fundamentally sound clubs all year. Great fielding percentage, great discipline at the plate. It just seems like CCU was so much better because of the small sample size.
Would you look back at the season and say that Alabama was a more fundamentally sound club with more fire? You would say that if you only looked at that one series where the two clubs played head-to-head. On the season, LSU proved to be better.
In other words, two good teams played, and the outcomes were close. LSU is not terrible in comparison. It just seems that way because you're only looking at the final result, 0-2.
Again, this is the case in nearly ALL competitive baseball, not just LSU/CCU.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 12:49 pm to The Mick
I was about to post that. I do not believe game 1 winner is a split. Zero chance that stat is correct.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 12:49 pm to victoire sécurisé
quote:
Baseball is basically a 50/50 sport
I am not a baseball fan but that has always been my feelings about the game.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 12:52 pm to LSUgrad08112
You are wrong.
Each team has a 25% chance of sweeping. Both teams together have a 50%. Therefore, 1/2 of all outcomes ends in a sweep.
In other words, given one team wins and one team loses game one, and each team has a 50% chance of winning game 2; half of all 3 game series end in a sweep if it's 50/50
Each team has a 25% chance of sweeping. Both teams together have a 50%. Therefore, 1/2 of all outcomes ends in a sweep.
In other words, given one team wins and one team loses game one, and each team has a 50% chance of winning game 2; half of all 3 game series end in a sweep if it's 50/50
Posted on 6/13/16 at 12:59 pm to LSUgrad08112
quote:
Your numbers aren't right.
Yes, they are.
quote:
The odds of a 50/50 event happening 3 times in a row either way in real life is 12.5%.
We're not talking about the odds of one team winning three times in a row. We're talking about the possible outcomes of three 50/50 games.
Somebody has to win the first game, and it's 50/50. The next game being 50/50 means that there's a 50% chance of a sweep. If it's a split in the first two games, Team 1 will win 25% of all series and team 2 will win 25% of all series.
50% of all series end in a sweep.
In the other 50% of all series, Team 1 will win half and Team 2 will win half. This is where the 50/25/25 split comes from.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:01 pm to grape nutz
quote:see my edit for actual stats last 10 years of supers.
I was about to post that. I do not believe game 1 winner is a split. Zero chance that stat is correct.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:07 pm to victoire sécurisé
There is a reason MLB plays 7 game series and a.600 pct team is a good squad.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:11 pm to The Mick
Yeah like I said, zero chance. Of course its an advantage to win game 1. Only a misguided calculator could tell you differently.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:17 pm to BornKjun
quote:
You are wrong.
No, I am not.
quote:
Therefore, 1/2 of all outcomes ends in a sweep.
How can you say I am wrong when this statement is exactly what I said?
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:19 pm to victoire sécurisé
quote:
What does it all mean? Basically, if you don't have a completely dominant team that is clearly better than all others, you need luck to win a championship, a lot of it.
You need luck to win any major championship.... not just baseball
quote:
assuming that all teams are equally likely to win any given game
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:20 pm to BornKjun
quote:
Each team has a 25% chance of sweeping. Both teams together have a 50%. Therefore, 1/2 of all outcomes ends in a sweep.
It's analogous, and equivalent to, a coin flip. There is a 50% chance that the first two flips will be the same - 25% chance of two heads in a row, 25% chance of two tails in a row.
There's a 50% chance the first two flips will be different - 25% of heads/tails, 25% of tails/heads. In these cases there is a 50% chance that the tiebreaking third flip lands on the flip one result.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:23 pm to victoire sécurisé
even worse in pro baseball, where the best team in the league has a .600 winning percentage and the worst is .400. It's not parity, it's the nature of the sport. A lot of luck involved. Difference between an All-Star .300 hitter and a journeyman .250 hitter is one extra hit every 20 at-bats.
In the NFL, if the worst team beats the best 42-0, it would be shocking. I MLB, if the worst team beats the best 10-0, no one notices. Nature of the game, unfortunately.
In the NFL, if the worst team beats the best 42-0, it would be shocking. I MLB, if the worst team beats the best 10-0, no one notices. Nature of the game, unfortunately.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:35 pm to victoire sécurisé
Because it wasn't a response to anything you said. It was to LSU grad.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 1:37 pm to grape nutz
quote:
46 sweeps and 33 3-game supers
46/(46+33) = 58%
This confirms half of my original claim. If we actually dug into those 33 Game 3's, we would probably find that G1 winner won half.
quote:
Of course its an advantage to win game 1.
Nobody is arguing that point. Of course Game 1 matters. In fact, winning Game 1 doubles your chances of winning the Super. There is no misguided calculator here.
Posted on 6/13/16 at 2:13 pm to victoire sécurisé
quote:
great discipline at the plate
Uh what? Idk if I've ever seen a less disciplined team at the plate. We swing at everything. I was so sick of first pitch curveball swinging pop outs I could have vomited
Posted on 6/13/16 at 2:25 pm to Murtown
quote:
great discipline at the plate
I can't find a source for the stat, but I recall LSU being by far the hardest team to strike out in the SEC.
Swinging at pitches early in the count is part of the team strategy. The concept is that you can't get behind the count to good pitchers. Their punch-out pitches are too good, so you have to hunt fastball early in the count. This worked flawlessly against Vandy, somewhat against UF. It just didn't pan out against Coastal C.
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