A little breakdown of 5 stars at LSU...

According to 247composite (post 2000):

-19 5 stars signed (draft eligible classes)
-10 5 stars drafted
-LSU has signed ~350 players in those draft eligible classes.
-79 players drafted from these classes

So let's look at the #s:

> 50% of 5 stars get drafted
~ 20% of non 5 stars get drafted

5% of LSU signees are 5 stars
12.5% of LSU draft picks are 5 stars
^ 2.5x as likely to be drafted as all 4 + 3 stars

Let's take a look at the undrafted 5 stars:

01' Ben Wilkerson: AA center
04' Xavier Carter: World class track athlete
05' Ryan Perriloux: No lack of talent
07' Terrance Tolliver: NFL bust***
09' Russel Shepard: On active NFL roster
09' Craig Loston: NFL bust ***
09' Chris Davenport: NFL bust***
10' Lael Collins: Murder investigation (BS)
10' Anthony Johnson: on active NFL roster

-So of 19 signed 3 weren't good enough to play in the league, and one of the 9 undrafted should have been a first rounder.
-Chris Davenport is the only 5 star that wasn't a significant contributor at LSU. Xavier focused on track obviously but did see reps early in football

How about our top prospects in the upcoming draft?

-seniors T White, E Pocic, and K Beckwith were all top 100 players.
-underclassmen J Adams and L Fournette were both 5 stars

Next years top undersclassmen prospects?

Arden Key and Derrius Guice, both top 100 players

I'd say recruiting services do a hell of a job projecting 17 years old kids if you ask me.

This post was edited on 12/13/16 at 10:59 am

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Posted by RBWilliams8

Member since Oct 2009

53417 posts

Posted on 12/13/16 at 10:58 am to Lsuchs

Well yeah the 5*s are typically right. There's so many variables for the system to be foolproof and too many players to get serious evaluations. Yeah kids get looked over. Yes kids develop and don't develop as expected (better or worse).

The problem is, people use "Jacob Hester was a 3*!!!" As if it's common. It's about as common for a 5* to be a bust as a non 5* to be great, IMO.

This post was edited on 12/13/16 at 10:59 am

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Posted by tke857

Member since Jan 2012

12195 posts

Posted on 12/13/16 at 10:59 am to Lsuchs

what I really like to look at is the 3* and below who really contribute to their college team and go on and get drafted.

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Posted by Lsuchs

Member since Apr 2013

8073 posts

Posted on 12/13/16 at 11:02 am to RBWilliams8

Even our other top players are top 100 players usually. Of course you'll have your Hesters, Claibornes, and Charks.

Just saying the more highly ranked players you sign the more talented teams you will field. These recruiting service guys are getting pretty good at their jobs.

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Posted by Lsuchs

Member since Apr 2013

8073 posts

Posted on 12/13/16 at 11:03 am to tke857

quote:
what I really like to look at is the 3* and below who really contribute to their college team and go on and get drafted.

There are ~4000 3 star and ~120 5 star college football players currently.

Of course they are important too, and more will be in the NFL.

Your chances of getting a good NFL caliber player directly coincide with recruiting ranking

There is no silver lining in the mass exodus of highly ranked Louisiana talent going to Alabama. We absolutely must lock down the state.

Landon Collins, Tim Williams, and Cam Robinson were all top 3 ranked La prospects, were top college players, and will have careers in the NFL. Their replacements in our classes were "decently" ranked: Corey Thompson, Bower, Domond. Contributors that had potential but are not equal.

If most "under evaluated" 3 star prospect are a diamond in the rough Mississippi state would be just as talented annually as LSU. They are not, we need to close strong in the recruiting rankings and continue to do so

This post was edited on 12/13/16 at 12:58 pm

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Posted by Got Blaze

Youngsville

Member since Dec 2013

8709 posts

Posted on 12/13/16 at 11:19 am to Lsuchs

quote:
Let's take a look at the undrafted 5 stars:
01' Ben Wilkerson: AA center

Ben Wilkerson is arguably one of the top 5 centers to ever play at LSU. Started as a True Freshman and won the 2004 Rimington Award as best C in CFB. Probably would have been drafted in the first 3 rds.

Wilkerson went undrafted because he suffered a torn patella tendon his Sr. yr (8th game) and he was never the same. Had surgery, did rehab, and missed the scouting combine. Signed as an UDFA by CIN

IMO, Ben's knee injury and after effects can be compared to Randy Livingston's injury.

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Posted by GoldenAge

Baton Rouge

Member since Mar 2014

1522 posts

Posted on 12/13/16 at 11:20 am to Lsuchs

The recruiting services did chark bad. Anyone who made their way to Alexandria to watch ash play could this kid was a baller.

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Posted by TigersFan2087

Indianapolis, IN

Member since Oct 2014

332 posts

Posted on 12/13/16 at 11:29 am to Lsuchs

The talent is definitely there with the 5 stars, I mean that's why they're ranked that high. The coaches job is to see if there is a weakness or character flaw. I mean so many people were ready to melt on here when we had the 2/5 day.. The 2 that came have been/are AA. The other three have drastically underachieved.

There are busts and there are gems.. It will always be that way in the recruiting process. Just have to hope you can find a gem whenever you miss out on the 5 stars.

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Posted by Ace Midnight

Between sanity and madness

Member since Dec 2006

89481 posts

Posted on 12/13/16 at 11:40 am to Lsuchs

quote:
01' Ben Wilkerson: AA center

Huge injury questions at the end of his college career - Saban owes him a stipend.

quote:
04' Xavier Carter: World class track athlete

Million dollar body and a 5 cent head.

quote:
05' Ryan Perriloux: No lack of talent

Million dollar body and a 5 cent head.

quote:
07' Terrance Tolliver: NFL bust***

Either he over-relied on his God-given talent or was just a really early bloomer and never improved. Showed flashes of greatness.

quote:
09' Russel Shepard: On active NFL roster

19 position changes later - I love a kid who just doesn't quit.

quote:
09' Craig Loston: NFL bust ***

Injuries

quote:
09' Chris Davenport: NFL bust***

Lazy AF

quote:
10' Lael Collins: Murder investigation (BS)

Complete BS as you say - his going undrafted is as big a steal for the Cowboys than Montana was for the 49ers in the 3rd round - (the 4th QB taken, with the 82nd pick of the draft - the first 3? Jack Thompson, Wash. St., Bungles, Phil Simms, Morehad St., Giants, and Steve Fuller, Clemson, Chiefs) - for 2015, I will exclude Centers - there were 42 Tackles and Guards taken in the draft - all theoretically ahead of Collins. Now, when he fell to the second day, I know his agent asked folks to not draft him so he wouldn't be bound by late round money, and to their credit - teams respected that.

But, Collins was a top 5 OL, at worst for his draft. Injuries look to be a problem in his second year, but that's with the benefit of hindsight.

This post was edited on 12/13/16 at 11:41 am

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