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Odds that J.Graham outscores Brees tonight?

Posted on 12/15/14 at 10:02 am
Posted by fillmoregandt
OTM
Member since Nov 2009
14368 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 10:02 am
In the semis. I'm up by five points. I have Jimmy Graham remaining, opponent has Brees. Think I stand a chance?
Posted by boom roasted
Member since Sep 2010
28039 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 10:03 am to
Strong maybe.
Posted by Fearthehat0307
Dallas, TX
Member since Dec 2007
65256 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 10:03 am to
288
Posted by PortCityTiger24
Member since Dec 2006
87455 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 10:08 am to
I hope so. I need Brees to not get 43.5 points.
Posted by CrackingCodes
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2010
689 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 11:21 am to
No scoring type no care
Posted by Vicks Kennel Club
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
31073 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 11:23 am to
If you tell me the scoring settings, then we can give you an answer based on this year's data.

For example, I have Graham and I up 12.5 points PPR. He has Brees and it is four point passing TD's.

The only times that Brees outscored Graham by 12.5 or more was in weeks 7 and 13 when Graham laid a goose egg.
Posted by fillmoregandt
OTM
Member since Nov 2009
14368 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 12:52 pm to
Standard scoring. PPR. 6 pts receiving TD, 4 pts throwing TD (I believe)

Don't have a great feeling based off recent history but who knows
Posted by Vicks Kennel Club
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
31073 posts
Posted on 12/15/14 at 1:28 pm to
quote:

Standard scoring.

quote:

PPR.

Yeah, that is not possible. I am assuming you mean PPR. Standard means that there is no points for a reception.

With PPR and decimal scoring, Brees has outscored Graham by 5+ points in weeks 3, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, and 14.

Week 12 was only a difference of 5.6, but it looks like you have maybe a 5/13 chance based on games this season. However, if Graham does not shite the bed (which has happened 8/13 times this year), then Graham has got enough for you to win 5/8 times.

Basically, Graham needs to have a double-digit game for you to have a chance. You have a very strong chance of winning if Graham puts up 20+.

I would guess it is literally a toss-up because the Bears are shite against tight ends and have poor defensive scheming. No way to know, but I hope you win because I am in a similar boat.
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