re: Fantasy Board Regulars 2014 Thread

Not trying to win. Just looking for a better support to your argument. Im curious because you're just so adamant but you're not giving me anything of substance to sway my logic. Im not stubborn and can be convinced, but he was a backup last season with backup stats doesn't do it for me. At least use the "he can't block" or "he can't catch"

quote:

---

The only reason he's being considered that high is because he plays with Peyton and that offense who scores a bajillion points a game.

---

which means he will score a shite ton of points in the system making him a high pick. i dont see how this a knock against him

quote:

---

He played 16 games and only finished with a lil over 500 yds and 4 TDS.

---

Better ypa than last year's rookies Lacy, Lev Bell, Gio Bernard, Stacy. Tells me increased carries could translate into production. Broncos are 2nd in the league in rushing attempts inside the 5 since Manning went to Denver... Moreno got those carries last season... Ball this year. Run at 4 ypa with 250 touches... catch ~50 balls. The math says he's 1st or 2nd rd material.

Guys like Leveon Bell and Zac Stacy couldn't even muster 4 ypa. Lacy and Bernard were right at 4. Yet they got the volume on the ground and through the air, so their volume numbers are there, much like Trent Richardson the year before. Are they world beaters? Meh

quote:

---

I admitted he did look good towards the end of the season. But looking good in 5 games doesn't make you a 1st/2nd round pick. The only reason he's being considered that high is because he plays with Peyton and that offense who scores a bajillion points a game.

---

Dude, 5 games and the work he put in is pretty telling. What's the magic number of games one needs to see to be convinced? It's the same offense plus new weapons.

I mean, if any decent RB played in DEN then they would be drafted the same way too. All it takes is getting the volume. The rest takes care of itself. Ellington, Ben Tate, Gerhart, etc have never proved anything, and they are going in the 3rd, 4th, 5th. And they are in shitty offenses. If those guys played in DEN, where would they be drafted?

gotta say gyno is pretty convincing here. he got me sold

You tell em B.

quote:

---

Have to be careful looking at ypa for back-up RBs. They are often put into situations as back-ups that don't play out when they are starting.

---

Well, I figured it was a perfect counter to the dumb argument that he played 16 games and only had 120/559/4 and 20/145. But he played 16 games!!!!!!!! What part of backup RB and KNowshon getting 250 carries and 60 receptions do we not understand? How much workload is left?

I posted this earlier in the thread

quote:

---

Were his numbers bad last year or something? He was the RB2 in Denver. Ball's accumulative numbers weren't there, obviously. 15 carries was the most he saw in a game.

11/61 vs OAK
7/40 vs NE
13/117 vs KC
15/77 vs TEN
10/72 vs OAK
10/52 vs SD

That's not even with his receiving stats. He gashed defenses in limited duty.

---

quote:

---

I think he's a first round back and will put up first round numbers but, I don't have the stones to pick him up there.

---

You know, I am usually the same way.

Reading this article changed my mind:

quote:

---

Myth 1: Because of poor ball security, he shouldn't be trusted carrying fine china, babies or oblong objects wrapped in brown leather. It's always difficult to erase early season memories. On his first 33 touches, Ball put the pill on the ground twice, one in front of large national TV audience in the Manning Bowl. As a result, he quickly gained a butter-hands reputation. However, he only coughed it up one time over his next 140 grips. In college, that streak was barely a drop in the bucket. While at Wisconsin, he didn't fumble until his 803rd career touch. Let that soak in for a moment. His early hiccups were fluky. When it comes to holding onto the rock, the man is the definition of reliable.

---

quote:

---

Myth 2: When oncoming rushers shoot through the gap, he morphs into Casper, the sack friendly ghost. Several scouts questioned Ball's ability to pick up the blitz entering last season's NFL Draft. More of a cut blocker, it was an area of concern. Throughout training camp and the preseason, he occasionally struggled identifying and blowing up the oncoming rush, missteps that practically cemented Moreno's stake as RB1. However, being the worker bee Ball is, he greatly improved as the season wore on. In fact, according to Pro Football Focus, he graded out higher than Knowshon in pass blocking. At first he experienced a few growing pains, but he developed into a trustworthy protector.

---

quote:

---

Bottom line: Drafters who buy into the above myths will stupidly bypass a sure-fire RB1 in drafts this summer. The offensive environment and lack of meaningful competition (Enough with the C.J. Anderson is 'God' chatter, haters), practically rubber stamps a 300-touch workload. Peyton Manning, who's sung Ball's praises this offseason, has the utmost confidence the rusher will take the next step. History supports that notion. As industry colleague Denny Carter recently pointed out, primary RBs who've played alongside No. 18 averaged 1,518 combined yards and 10.4 touchdowns per season, an output nearly identical to what DeMarco Murray, the eighth-best rusher in fantasy, accomplished last year. And, again, that's just the average. Ball, like Edgerrin James, Joseph Addai and Moreno before him, will see few defenders in the box. A top-five season is on the horizon.

---

We will just have to let this one play out

Yeah, he was my 2nd rounder. Which I'm totally comfortable with

I'm not training anything unless it's 1 of my 15 WRs

quote:

---

11/61 vs OAK 7/40 vs NE
13/117 vs KC
15/77 vs TEN
10/72 vs OAK
10/52 vs SD
That's not even with his receiving stats. He gashed defenses in limited duty.

---

12/24 vs Giants
11/37 vs Wash
8/24 vs Balt
8/25 KC

See, i can do this too.

I don't think my stats are "dumb" considering we're talking about a 1st/2nd round pick here.

Is he in the perfect offense to "potentially" put up top 12 RB numbers, yes, ok. I'll concede that, I guess.

I don't see it him doing that, you do. GL.

more fuel to the gyno fire

quote:

---

9. Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos
Weeks 1-7: 12.4 snaps, 6.1 carries, 3.6 routes, 0.6 targets
Weeks 8-17, plus three playoff games: 24.9 snaps, 8.8 carries, 11.8 routes, 2.5 targets


Selected in the second round of the 2013 draft, Ball entered his rookie season in position to compete for Denver's lead back gig. He ended up settling in behind Knowshon Moreno and, at least for a few weeks, Ronnie Hillman. As the season progressed, Hillman faded away and Ball took on a larger role.

Denver's record-setting offense allowed the Broncos to give Ball long looks in the second half of blowouts. The rookie responded with a healthy 4.4 yards per carry on 148 carries. With Moreno now in Miami, Ball is in position to take over as the feature back in Denver's high-scoring attack. He's worth a look at the Round 1-2 turn.

---

Well he's not a no doubt 1st rounder. He's in that same class of RB as Bell, Lacy, Bernard.

How many 2nd year, 1st time starters step into a situation where they are now in a record setting offense playing next to arguably the greatest QB to ever play the game?

quote:

---

Does it usually work out well when we draft not the players themselves, but rather their roles?

---

High powered offense
Teams cannot stack box
Manning throw to RBs
Goal line opportunities are there
No real threat to steal carries
Proved to be decent enough in limited time

You aren't finding many teams using 1 exclusive back, much less one that has the best offense in the league. If Ball is great, you hit a HR. If he averages 3 ypa and is a plodder, you hit a single, bc he probably still catches a few balls and gets goaline looks.. So worst case scenario? 10 PPG?