Keeper Question - Tulo or Beltre?

Alright, here's the deal I have 6 guys I can keep/worth keeping. I can only keep 5. I surrender the pick I drafted them at 2 years ago to keep them:

Tulo - 1st round pick
McCutchen - 3rd round pick
Beltre - 5th round pick
Verlander - 6th round pick
Heyward - 8th round pick
Cespedes - 15th round pick

Everyone one of these guys I'd be getting premium value on... except Tulo. Obviously when Tulo is on, he's a top 10 player, but is that gonna happen again? He's hurt every year and goes through maddening slumps when healthy.

My thought here is that I keep Beltre at a way lower price point than it would cost for Tulo, then I pick 5th overall, so Tulo could fall back to me? Or I could nab someone else good if not.