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How recruiting rankings have stacked up at the top of the NFL Draft

Posted on 1/24/13 at 11:29 am
Posted by rsande2
Member since Jan 2006
3423 posts
Posted on 1/24/13 at 11:29 am
LINK

SIAP

SIG

Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 1/24/13 at 11:33 am to
would like to see a % of each ranking that goes on to be a first round pick

like he says 1 in 6 5* players are first round picks, but what for 4's and 3's?
Posted by tke857
Member since Jan 2012
12195 posts
Posted on 1/24/13 at 11:35 am to
id like to see the 5* and 4* that didn't even get drafted or got drafted in the 5-7th rounds....
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 1/24/13 at 11:38 am to
I'm just saying that a draft percentage ranking would be a really good evaluator of a recruiting site's rankings

you're always gonna have 5* busts and it's not really important which ones are (unless they're systematically coming from the same schools), but it'd be good for consumers to know which sites actually do the best evaluations and projections before committing monthly fees for information.
Posted by jturn17
Member since Jan 2011
4978 posts
Posted on 1/24/13 at 11:42 am to
quote:

but what for 4's and 3's?


Looking at his numbers there are roughly 10 3 stars a year drafted in first round, and roughly 1200 3 stars per Rivals. So very roughly 1 out of 120.

Roughly 12 4 stars drafted but only around 300-400 ranked on Rivals. 1 out of every 25-30.


These are just very rough number by a cursory glance at Rivals.

Posted by brewhan davey
Audubon Place
Member since Sep 2010
32775 posts
Posted on 1/24/13 at 12:05 pm to
Lol at any QB going top 10
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59063 posts
Posted on 1/24/13 at 12:11 pm to
quote:

but it'd be good for consumers to know which sites actually do the best evaluations and projections before committing monthly fees for information.


is there really that much difference between the sites? Except for ESPN, most of the rest seem pretty similar. 247 has White at #9 overall, Rivals has him at #18, that's an insignificant difference. How often do you see a guy that's a 5* on 1 site and a 3 on another? Is something like White being not in the top 300 on ESPN while he's top 20 everywhere else something you see a lot?

Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 1/24/13 at 12:50 pm to
General rule of thumb, don't pay attention to ESPN's rankings. They are hilariously bad.

If you get the other ones and average them, I think that is the best ranking.


ETA:

Honestly why doesn't someone do that in excel? It would take 30 minutes.

Have all the prospects listed, in the nest 3 columns get their 3 overall rankings, then in the next 3 get their position rankings, then average them out.

That would be the most accurate.
This post was edited on 1/24/13 at 12:52 pm
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
39100 posts
Posted on 1/24/13 at 12:54 pm to
quote:

Honestly why doesn't someone do that in excel?


I believe 24/7 does, and that's their composite ranking
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 1/24/13 at 12:56 pm to
quote:

I believe 24/7 does, and that's their composite ranking


I thought that was their ranking and the subscriber votes/ranking?

I didn't think they would go across enemy lines to composite with Rivals...
Posted by Kevin TheRant
Member since Nov 2010
1724 posts
Posted on 1/24/13 at 1:43 pm to
We should also look at how many 5,4,3 stars there are. For instance there are way more 3 and 4 stars to like 30 5 star guys, which means a lot more 3 and 4 star guys will be drafted. Some of the stats are misleading.
Posted by LSUtah
Salt Lake City
Member since Feb 2011
872 posts
Posted on 1/24/13 at 3:25 pm to
A lof of people have a misconception of what the ranking means. A 5* simply indicates the athlete can contribute at a meaningful level on day 1, and it cascades down from there. A majority of kids have not completed their physical development at 17/18 when they get their rankings.

A 5* is a sure bet physically, but you never know what you get mentally. A ton of 3 and 4 star rated kids would be rated 5*'s by their junior/senior campaigns.
This post was edited on 1/24/13 at 3:27 pm
Posted by Boudreaux in SF
silicon valley
Member since May 2005
530 posts
Posted on 1/24/13 at 4:59 pm to
oops
This post was edited on 1/24/13 at 5:00 pm
Posted by Boudreaux in SF
silicon valley
Member since May 2005
530 posts
Posted on 1/24/13 at 5:01 pm to
quote:

didn't think they would go across enemy lines to composite with Rivals...


Actually, the Composite Ranking on 247 includes the 247 rankings, Rivals rankings, Scouts Rankings and ESPN rankings in their algorithm.
Posted by Cousin
The Bayou
Member since Feb 2012
5272 posts
Posted on 1/24/13 at 6:15 pm to
I guess Jalen Mills defied the odds by being a 2* and starting on Day 1 for a major college program.
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