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re: Calibrate your expectations
Posted on 8/27/21 at 5:21 pm to Madking
Posted on 8/27/21 at 5:21 pm to Madking
Some computer ratings from last season:
FPI: LSU 28th, UCLA 29th
SP+: LSU 45th, UCLA 46th
Sagarin: LSU 38th, UCLA 46th
So not a ton of separation between the two teams' performances last year. UCLA returns more proven production but LSU has more recruiting talent. Throw in situational factors favoring UCLA (Week 0 game, playing at home, new coordinators for LSU) and I can see why the spread is at 4.
What's notable to me is that roughly 75% of the tickets are coming in on LSU and the line has hardly budged. Meaning Vegas must think they have the right line or are anticipating late money on UCLA.
FPI: LSU 28th, UCLA 29th
SP+: LSU 45th, UCLA 46th
Sagarin: LSU 38th, UCLA 46th
So not a ton of separation between the two teams' performances last year. UCLA returns more proven production but LSU has more recruiting talent. Throw in situational factors favoring UCLA (Week 0 game, playing at home, new coordinators for LSU) and I can see why the spread is at 4.
What's notable to me is that roughly 75% of the tickets are coming in on LSU and the line has hardly budged. Meaning Vegas must think they have the right line or are anticipating late money on UCLA.
2
Posted on 8/27/21 at 5:35 pm to Bruin2010
National football post has the line at 3.5 so apparently their early money is going on UCLA.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 6:25 pm to Bruin2010
quote:
What's notable to me is that roughly 75% of the tickets are coming in on LSU and the line has hardly budged. Meaning Vegas must think they have the right line or are anticipating late money on UCLA.
Most people don’t bet this early on spreads, the least amount of bettors there are the easiest it is to have a heavy percentage on one side
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