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re: Calibrate your expectations
Posted on 8/27/21 at 5:21 pm to Madking
Posted on 8/27/21 at 5:21 pm to Madking
Some computer ratings from last season:
FPI: LSU 28th, UCLA 29th
SP+: LSU 45th, UCLA 46th
Sagarin: LSU 38th, UCLA 46th
So not a ton of separation between the two teams' performances last year. UCLA returns more proven production but LSU has more recruiting talent. Throw in situational factors favoring UCLA (Week 0 game, playing at home, new coordinators for LSU) and I can see why the spread is at 4.
What's notable to me is that roughly 75% of the tickets are coming in on LSU and the line has hardly budged. Meaning Vegas must think they have the right line or are anticipating late money on UCLA.
FPI: LSU 28th, UCLA 29th
SP+: LSU 45th, UCLA 46th
Sagarin: LSU 38th, UCLA 46th
So not a ton of separation between the two teams' performances last year. UCLA returns more proven production but LSU has more recruiting talent. Throw in situational factors favoring UCLA (Week 0 game, playing at home, new coordinators for LSU) and I can see why the spread is at 4.
What's notable to me is that roughly 75% of the tickets are coming in on LSU and the line has hardly budged. Meaning Vegas must think they have the right line or are anticipating late money on UCLA.
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