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Started By
Message
re: where will we get the juice for all these EVs?
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:45 pm to Darth_Vader
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:45 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Maybe one day you’ll grow up and be a man. Until then you’re just a little boy. Deal with it kid.
I can one day only hope to be a failed hells angel front loader peddler with a bad heart living in a Dr Horton neighborhood
Maybe one day!
1
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:47 pm to Darth_Vader
Nuclear is the only option if you’re being realistic. I’m 100% for it, too.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:49 pm to Darth_Vader
Electricity is really easy to make. You just boil water. Our current load is based off of demand. We can quadruple our output with no issues. That is just current technology. When home adoption is more acceptable, everyone will use their own solar roofs, etc to offset. Just because we aren't currently doing something isn't a valid reason to pursue technology.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:50 pm to lostinbr
quote:
The larger issue is the grid infrastructure, not power generation.
As for the fuel source, natural gas would likely account for the bulk of it.
lostinbr gets it.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:51 pm to Darth_Vader
Funny you posted this because I actually did some napkin math last night and was going and reached the opposite conclusion. I was going to do a thread today but ended up being out all day.
In the US there are ~230 million licensed drivers.
Average milage per year is 13,500
~3.1 trillion miles a year
Median MPGe for a EV today is a little over 100 MPGe
a gallon of gas is has roughly 33.7 kwh
That is ~1 Trillion kWh added per year account for charging loses and transmission losses and it is ~1.25 Trillion kWh per year
(charging loss 14% and transmission loss 8%)
The power production now in the US is ~4.Trillion kWh per year so you need about a 30% increase in power production.
The US averaged an averaged an increase of production of about 4% per year from 1960 to 2000 so it would take about 6.5 years to meet the EV demand at this rate if EVERYONE switched to EVs in that time. Not the energy needs have been nearly flat the last 20 years due to an abundance of reasons.
On the production side the increase in power consumption needed to meet the increase in EVs is well inside our normal increase especially when you consider how long it will take for 100% adoption, when you further look at when the demand is greatest for charging at home which is when we have an excess of production anyway.
The local grid is where the problem gets slightly less manageable but simple social engineering that power companies already engage in can shift charging of many cars from the 5:30 to 7:30 PM arrival at home for many people to later in the night.
The production and grid issues are overblown unless the adoption rate climbs much faster than anyone expects.
There are a LOT of obstacles to universal implementation but production and local grids aren't nearly the issue that some think, I was indeed surprised by the raw numbers.
In the US there are ~230 million licensed drivers.
Average milage per year is 13,500
~3.1 trillion miles a year
Median MPGe for a EV today is a little over 100 MPGe
a gallon of gas is has roughly 33.7 kwh
That is ~1 Trillion kWh added per year account for charging loses and transmission losses and it is ~1.25 Trillion kWh per year
(charging loss 14% and transmission loss 8%)
The power production now in the US is ~4.Trillion kWh per year so you need about a 30% increase in power production.
The US averaged an averaged an increase of production of about 4% per year from 1960 to 2000 so it would take about 6.5 years to meet the EV demand at this rate if EVERYONE switched to EVs in that time. Not the energy needs have been nearly flat the last 20 years due to an abundance of reasons.
On the production side the increase in power consumption needed to meet the increase in EVs is well inside our normal increase especially when you consider how long it will take for 100% adoption, when you further look at when the demand is greatest for charging at home which is when we have an excess of production anyway.
The local grid is where the problem gets slightly less manageable but simple social engineering that power companies already engage in can shift charging of many cars from the 5:30 to 7:30 PM arrival at home for many people to later in the night.
The production and grid issues are overblown unless the adoption rate climbs much faster than anyone expects.
There are a LOT of obstacles to universal implementation but production and local grids aren't nearly the issue that some think, I was indeed surprised by the raw numbers.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:53 pm to michael corleone
quote:
Where will they get the lithium necessary
This is another issue I’ve wondered about. Lithium comes from only one source that I know of, strip mining.
Now as a regional wear parts product manager for Caterpillar, this is good news for me. But if our goal is to save the environment, I’m not sure we will be making much progress.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:56 pm to Darth_Vader
drive faster
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:57 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
1. Do we not get most of our natural gas from fracking? Like 2/3rd of it? To meet the extra demand that will require a lot of new fracking. Do you think the powers that be will allow it?
This is an interesting question. You are correct that most of our gas comes from shale - and it’s way more than 2/3. At the same time, we currently have a surplus of natural gas. Hence the massive LNG export projects in recent years.
Either way though, there’s no way to even sustain our current gas production without continuing to drill and recomplete/stimulate shale wells. I have no doubt that generation from renewables will continue to increase in the coming years - as I said previously, we have added over 100,000 MW since 2000.
But the reality is that there is no near term future for mass-produced EV’s without the US shale gas industry. Even if we started permitting new nuclear plants, it would take an enormous amount of money and many years to offset natural gas.
I suspect the “powers that be” are well aware of this reality, hence the lack of any meaningful regulation/bans of fracking despite a lot of posturing in the last 10-15 years. Hell, it was the federal government that pushed harder than anyone to replace old coal generators with new combined cycle gas turbines.
quote:
2. Getting approval for new power plants, is next to impossible. Environmentalists fight new power plants with endless lawsuits. Will there be the political will from the left to allow the construction of roughly 150 to 250 new power plants nationwide?
I don’t buy that it’s “next to impossible.” A massive number of gas turbines were commissioned under the Obama administration, and I think the left cares more about adoption of EV’s than gas power plants. The EV ecosystem doesn’t work without them.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:59 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
front loader peddler
I’m not a machine sales rep. And you’re showing how ignorant you really are because if you knew shite about anything, you’d know machine sales reps usually make well over six figures a year.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 9:01 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
if you knew shite about anything, you’d know machine sales reps usually make well over six figures a year.
Heard you could buy your own island with that kind of coin
Posted on 6/13/21 at 9:04 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Lithium comes from only one source that I know of, strip mining.
Then maybe you should avoid talking about the issue. More than half comes from groundwater brine vs hardrock mining and it is a preferable option not only ecologically but for speed to market. The percentage from brine is going up year after year.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 9:04 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
if you knew shite about anything, you’d know machine sales reps usually make well over six figures a year.
Heard you could buy your own island with that kind of coin
I forgot kids have no concept of money. One day when you earn your own money instead of getting a weekly allowance from mommy, you’ll realize a six figure a year income is nothing to scoff at.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 9:05 pm to Darth_Vader
I think electric is great, as a hybrid option for performance and or adding AWD to more vehicles. Look at the Rav4 Prime, 302 hp AWD and hits 60 in 5.7 seconds. If you upscale that to a Tundra or Sequoia you could have all the benefits of electric, keep the ICE for long range and have a vehicle that is quicker than ICE, gets much better mileage and can actually tow a boat from Baton Rouge to the coast.
Oh, the the obvious answer is obvious, we need more nuclear, the only real "green" energy technology that is viable.
Oh, the the obvious answer is obvious, we need more nuclear, the only real "green" energy technology that is viable.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 9:06 pm to Fat Batman
quote:
Pretty big oversight in your breakdown assuming every registered car is driven an average of 1100 and whatever miles per month.
Us non-poors have several vehicles each.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 9:06 pm to Darth_Vader
I just wonder what happens when i am stuck in a traffic jam for 2-3 hours due to an accident here in FL in mid-July with no escape route to a charger....
AAA or Road Ranger carrying a generator in their truck and sitting for 30min? Or each EV?
AAA or Road Ranger carrying a generator in their truck and sitting for 30min? Or each EV?
Posted on 6/13/21 at 9:07 pm to Clames
quote:
Us non-poors have several vehicles each.
Your reading comprehension blows baw
Posted on 6/13/21 at 9:08 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Then maybe you should avoid talking about the issue
The facts have never deterred Darth
Posted on 6/13/21 at 9:08 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I forgot kids have no concept of money. One day when you earn your own money instead of getting a weekly allowance from mommy, you’ll realize a six figure a year income is nothing to scoff at
Darth, I likely made more money brfire 30 than you make now.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 9:15 pm to Clames
quote:
Us non-poors have several vehicles each.
Obviously, a shite post (zero judgement!) but the correct way to approach the numbers is driver miles per year not conflating average miles per driver per year to every vehicle. That would suggest my wife and I drive a HELLUVA lot more than we do.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 9:15 pm to TigersnJeeps
What is the answer for AC/ Phone Chargers,radios running in traffic jams? How does that effect the mileage range of EV’s?
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