re: Should I move my 401k money to the cash option ahead of the election?

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The average Shiller CAPE ratio for that July 2013 to today has been 27.9. Where is your threshold for "extreme overvaluation"?

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And in July 2013, the CAPE was at 23. But the OP is not asking about what he should have done in July 2013. He's asking if he has any reason to be cautious today, with an outlook not to exceed 10 years and potentially even much shorter, when the CAPE is at 30.

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If the 1929 period is your yardstick that qualifies as a sustained period, nearly every one of those 77 qualifies, as the ratio was only above 30 for 2 months in 1929.

I don't know what to tell you. Overvalued means exceeding the average value in this case. But I will play along as this will be my last post in this thread because I feel like it is getting derailed.

The Shiller CAPE Ratio was spot on 30 July 1st 2017. I chose that date because the most recent time before that it was 30 or higher was March of 2002.

From July of 2017 till today, the ratio has averaged 30.14, and only dipped below 25 in one month out of 41.
The S&P 500 total return for that time frame was over 44%. Again, what could be life changing amounts of money.

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Sustained = remaining at or near the beginning level for a period of time sufficient enough to provide the investor with a return that beats cash over his/her investment horizon. I've previously shown the 10-year outlook would have sucked wind in 1929, when the CAPE was equal to today. I can run a similar analysis for the late 1990s, but we both know that result would be even more depressing than what we saw from 1929. Will a 10-year outlook beginning in 2017 perform well? Time will tell. Will it perform well beginning in 2020? Time will also tell, but rather than parrot mindless aphorisms that any schmuck at Edward Jones is sure to learn on Day 1, I'm simply saying it is entirely reasonable to demand more in terms of investment advice. After all, not only are we at near-peak valuations, we're at peak debt-to-GDP, all-time low interest rates, all-time high political dysfunction, multi-decade low corporate taxes and peak or near-peak fiscal policy. All of those factors should lead an inquiring mind to consider strategies that might protect oneself, particularly if they are only 10 years or less from retirement.

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Starting valuation matters, but what you are advocating is timing, and the CAPE ratio is a poor signal for timing, as it turns out most things are.

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Nope, what I'm advocating for is the elimination of ridiculously broad brush strokes in these types of threads. I've explicitly highlighted multiple times that buy and hold has been a winning strategy the majority of the time. I'm simply saying that anyone with an investment horizon as short as the OP's should go into his twilight working years as wide-eyed as possible. We're at valuation levels that have historically resulted in poor risk-adjusted returns for stocks, and that's relative to prior periods when the Federal Reserve and Federal Government each had much more monetary / fiscal capacity available at their disposal.