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This is what confuses me (Biden polling issue)
Posted on 10/23/20 at 10:02 am
Posted on 10/23/20 at 10:02 am
The other thread about “vulnerable democrats” brings up an important point, especially regarding Minnesota.
MN is considered an inherently safe state for Biden, based on polling.
Why would a Democrat senator of that state even be considered “vulnerable” if that were the case?
The concept of cross party voting is most likely extremely small percentage-wise.
Any state that is considered a safe bet for Biden should be a safe bet for all Democrats in the state, right?
I’m so lost this election.
MN is considered an inherently safe state for Biden, based on polling.
Why would a Democrat senator of that state even be considered “vulnerable” if that were the case?
The concept of cross party voting is most likely extremely small percentage-wise.
Any state that is considered a safe bet for Biden should be a safe bet for all Democrats in the state, right?
I’m so lost this election.
This post was edited on 10/23/20 at 10:03 am
5
Posted on 10/23/20 at 10:07 am to Scruffy
Tina Smith is literally one of the worst senators in the Senate. And she's completely unlikable. She won last time because it was her turn and Minnesota was bluer. As Minnesota has shifted to a purplish hue, her ineptitude and unattractiveness has resulted in this becoming a competitive race.
This post was edited on 10/23/20 at 10:08 am
Posted on 10/23/20 at 10:10 am to Scruffy
By that assertion wouldn’t LA be voting for Biden because it has a Democrat governor? Or what about North Carolina?
Posted on 10/23/20 at 10:11 am to ROPO
quote:Completely irrelevant, IMO.
Tina Smith is literally one of the worst senators in the Senate.
If she was viewed THAT poorly, she would have been primaried.
Unless you believe that cross party voting is so significant, which I do not, then it makes zero sense.
This election is pretty much summed up by one side vs another and will he decided by turnout and party number transfers.
It won’t be decided by a large number of people voting Biden for president and then the Republican candidate for senator.
Very few people are that politically savvy.
quote:Then explain to me how it isn’t a more competitive race for president.
As Minnesota has shifted to a purplish hue, her ineptitude and unattractiveness has resulted in this becoming a competitive race.
Again, it doesn’t make sense to me.
This post was edited on 10/23/20 at 10:12 am
Posted on 10/23/20 at 10:15 am to Scruffy
It's hard for me to line up what the polls say with what Biden does and what the campaign strategies are.
I have no clue how Biden, who only fumbles around everytime he wanders out of his basement, gets these random 5 point bumps after doing absolutely nothing of note or even doing negative things. The polls put out seem wholly detached from reality. I hope they're are terribly wrong come election day.
I have no clue how Biden, who only fumbles around everytime he wanders out of his basement, gets these random 5 point bumps after doing absolutely nothing of note or even doing negative things. The polls put out seem wholly detached from reality. I hope they're are terribly wrong come election day.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 10:16 am to CaptainJ47
quote:I’m going just by this election.
By that assertion wouldn’t LA be voting for Biden because it has a Democrat governor? Or what about North Carolina?
I don’t think it can be compared to many others.
It’s too out there.
Also, how often does a state vote for a party’s president, while then voting in the opposing party’s senator?
I suspect that is incredibly rare.
This post was edited on 10/23/20 at 10:17 am
Posted on 10/23/20 at 10:16 am to Scruffy
That’s because polls are lying on the macro level.
I think all indications point to Trump win when you look at the down ballot races.
I think all indications point to Trump win when you look at the down ballot races.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 10:19 am to tiggerthetooth
quote:
I have no clue how Biden, who only fumbles around everytime he wanders out of his basement, gets these random 5 point bumps after doing absolutely nothing of note or even doing negative things.
This Board truly underestimates the degree of hatred toward DJT that is out there. It's unfounded, but it is very real.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 10:25 am to CaptainJ47
quote:
By that assertion wouldn’t LA be voting for Biden because it has a Democrat governor? Or what about North Carolina?
i think that JBE is a genuine outlier. conservative democrat running against a known adulterer and a guy that pissed off the half of the state you need to win as a republican in two straight elections.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 11:03 am to 3nOut
I agree... but again look at NC. Known adulterer Democrat has a lead while the presidential vote may go for trump. Fascinating shite honestly.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 11:22 am to 3nOut
quote:
conservative democrat
He may claim that, but he surely isn’t one.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 11:29 am to Scruffy
MN is hopefully in play but is difficult to poll. The below quote is from an elected official I asked about this race last night. On a side note, he told me they are feeling pretty good about James in MI.
"Jason Lewis is running well against a weak opponent.
Could be in play but polling samples there flawed. No party registration so it can be hard to accurately poll but last poll (like many previous) oversampled GOP voters. It's a cheap date but (to mix metaphors) we are fighting on so many fronts it's hard to know where to spread the peanut butter
"Jason Lewis is running well against a weak opponent.
Could be in play but polling samples there flawed. No party registration so it can be hard to accurately poll but last poll (like many previous) oversampled GOP voters. It's a cheap date but (to mix metaphors) we are fighting on so many fronts it's hard to know where to spread the peanut butter
Posted on 10/23/20 at 11:33 am to Scruffy
quote:
Completely irrelevant, IMO.
If she was viewed THAT poorly, she would have been primaried.
She was elected Lt Gov in 2014 and held that office 2015-2018. In 2017 she was picked to take over Stuart Smalley's seat when he had to resign at the beginning of 2018 and then won a special election that November.
There was a primary this year but she won 87% of the DFL vote.
She won that special election in 2018 by ~275k votes (over 10%). Lewis, her competitor this time is a former congressman and has the name recognition, but I still think it's going to be close. And yes, she's horrible.
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