re: Louisiana COVID-19 - July 30, 2020 Update: 114,481 cases - 3,811 deaths - 1,317,390 tested

It sounds as though you are leaning towards a notable level of immunity existing and, due to that, the virus eventually burning out. And pretty soon. If that’s the case, the state will continue to get better from this point on until we reach a low plateau, like we have seen in Orleans. It’s not two spikes, but different timing of various spikes.

This seems to be confirmed with a little more certainty every week. If this was not the case, New York would have needed the 40,000 ventilators they asked for and the field hospitals in the Javits center and Morial Convention Center would have been filled. Those were legitimate numbers based on an assumed “one-size-fits-all” outlook for susceptibility to exposure, infection and exponential growth.

Recall that the virus has been shown to live in the air for hours and on surfaces for days. It’s out there and it’s highly contagious. A substantial percentage of people in the state will get it or have gotten it. Currently the R is down and the number of hosts is dropping. IF this is all true, then we will be out of the woods much sooner than most expect.

We could see a huge second spike in the fall. Who knows? This may be a roller coaster for a long time. But there is enough science pointing towards it burning out, that I’m on board with this being the eventual outcome. It also keeps me sane to think that this may be nearing an end. Even if it is true, it’s not going to be a pleasant descent between now and then.

Until we know, I’m going to wear my mask, socially distance and be part of what conventional science and society dictates. We will know soon enough. And much more in, say, two weeks.