quote:
And the case fatality rate from the Diamond Princess that they used to estimate a 0.5% infection fatality rate has since doubled, which means the estimation they used for the IFR has also doubled, putting us at 1% IFR that has been estimated for quite some time.

That's also the most vulnerable group of people possible to be infected. The average age of the passengers was 69 years old. So essentially, you're looking at 1% in the vulnerable groups, so when you factor in younger infections, the IFR will be driven down to somewhere in the .3-.7% range.

You can also use the USS Roosevelt, who had approximately 14% infected (660 positive tests out of 5,000), and 1 death. That's a confined ship with basically the exact opposite age group.

This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 9:31 pm

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Posted by WaWaWeeWa

Member since Oct 2015

15714 posts

Posted on 4/18/20 at 9:36 pm to hehateme2285

Also, one issue to consider with these ships, diamond princess and the Roosevelt is that they captured active infections.

We can’t be sure there weren’t early cases that had already resolved. I wish they would go back and give all of them antibody tests.

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Posted by buckeye_vol

Member since Jul 2014

35251 posts

Posted on 4/18/20 at 10:52 pm to hehateme2285

quote:
So essentially, you're looking at 1% in the vulnerable groups,

Well it’s twice that (14/712), and one just died the other day. And given the socio-economic, and the baseline health necessary to travel like that, they’re probably less vulnerable than many others

quote:
You can also use the USS Roosevelt, who had approximately 14% infected (660 positive tests out of 5,000), and 1 death.

One death, although we never know if more will happen. Regardless that’s 0.15% for probably one of the least vulnerable groups.

So the midpoint between the two converges on roughly 1%.

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