Below is each team's NET ranking and quadrant resumes. This is a quadrant 3 game for us against Mizzou at home unfortunately as they are outside the Top 75 (vs. 76-160 home game is Quadrant 3). These results are as of 2/10/20.

Quad 1 = Against #1-30 Home, #1-50 Neutral, #1-75 Away
Quad 2 = Against #31-75 Home, #51-100 Neutral, #76-135 Away
Quad 3 = Against #76-#160 Home, #101-200 Neutral, #136-240 Away
Quad 4 = Against #161-353 Home, #201-353 Neutral, #241-353 Away

#27 (17-6, 8-2 SEC) LSU
Quad 1 = 3-4
Quad 2 = 6-1
Quad 3 = 4-1
Quad 4 = 4-0

#96 (11-12, 3-7 SEC) Missouri
Quad 1 = 1-7
Quad 2 = 3-2
Quad 3 = 4-2
Quad 4 = 3-1

LSU as of recent
Worst week in a long time sums up the past week for the (LSU) Tigers. Back to back losses is something we are simply not used to. First the inexplicable bad loss at Vandy in which we thought we could just outscore them by playing no defense all game and then controlling the game almost start to finish at Auburn and blowing yet another big lead and losing in OT. After getting up by as much as 15 on Auburn, we could not resist Auburn’s final push of 3’s late in the game to tie it at 74, then win in OT 91-90. Auburn went 7 for 9 from 3 from about the 1 minute mark in 2nd half to 2 minute mark in OT. That’s 7 3’s in a 4 minute span. Guys who don’t shoot the 3 well, shot it very well as Auburn finished with 18 3’s and the tune of us not defending the 3 point line and allowing a bad 3 point shooting to go off continued. Auburn also destroyed us on the glass grabbing 17 of their misses to our 8. Wiley was the big difference for Auburn there. We had no answer for him inside.

Missouri as of recent
Missouri has not had a good year by any shape of the imagination, but picked up a huge win vs. Arkansas at home this past weekend in overtime. Now Arkansas has fallen apart some in conference play due to being so undersized, but that’s a big win for a struggling Mizzou team. Mizzou has been without starting center Jeremiah Tilmon for most of conference play and that’s certainly hurt them there. He came back against A&M earlier in the week but sat out the weekend as it seems he reaggravated his foot injury. They’ve also been without Mark Smith the last 3 games which is another huge blow for them. I don’t know if a coach has been more unlucky the last few years with injuries than Cuonzo Martin at Missouri. Missouri has a lot of height they will start even with Tilmon out though. I do not know the status of both players, but will assume they are out until heard otherwise.

Missouri projected starters
C (6'10, 240) SR. Reed Nikko
PF (6'7, 240) FR. Kobe Brown
SF (6'5, 220) SO. Javon Pickett
SG (6'2, 170) SO. Xavier Pinson
PG (6'3, 203) rJR. Dru Smith

Reed Nikko has been starting in place of Tilmon at the 5 spot since he’s been out with injury. Nikko is not a flashy player by any means but is a big body and in 20.5 conference minutes per game is averaging 6.8 points, 4.9 boards (2.3 offensive), 0.9 blocks on 56% from the floor. He is not a threat to shoot the ball from 3. His conference PER is 19.2 on the season so he’s been efficient yet not a big impact guy.

Kobe Brown has started to get more starts in conference play and is a promising freshman. In 18.9 conference minutes per game he is averaging 6.7 points, 3.2 boards (1.3 offensive) on 44% from the floor and 35% from 3 (shoots 2.2 a game). His conference PER is 13.4 on the season.

Javon Pickett has been in and out of starting lineup in conference play but in 27.2 conference minutes per game is averaging 7.6 points, 3.5 boards (1.1 offensive), 1.4 assists on 39.7% from the floor and 37.5% from 3 (only shoots 1.6 a game). His conference PER is just 8.5 on the season.

Xavier Pinson has been starting in place of a missing Mark Smith and in 21.1 conference minutes per game is averaging 9.3 points, 1.6 boards, 1.9 assists, 1 steal on 29.8% from the floor and 35.3% from 3 (shoots 3.4 a game). He is a rather abysmal 26% from 2 on the season in conference play. His conference PER is just 10.7 on the season.

Dru Smith has been Missouri’s best/most consistent player this year and is a well-built PG at 6’3, 203. In 33.9 conference minutes per game, Smith is averaging 11.7 points, 3.4 boards, 4 assists (to 2.9 TO), 2.5 steals on 37.1% from the floor and 30% from 3 (shoots 3 a game). His conference PER is 17.4 on the season.

Missouri top bench players
C/PF (6’10, 221) rJR. Mitchell Smith
SG (6’5, 205) SO. Torrence Watson
PF (6’8, 215) FR. Tray Jackson

Missouri if they are without Tilmon and Mark Smith wont go very deep on the bench. Mitchell Smith is a very good bench player who basically plays starting minutes and averages 6.4 points, 6.3 boards (2.0 offensive) and is a threat to shoot the 3 ball at 6’10 (30% on conference season). Watson also has played a lot of minutes off the bench in conference play but is a less productive 4.2 points on a miserable 24.5% from the floor as he’s 20.5% from 3 and shoots mostly 3’s. Jackson has had to play some more with Mark Smith out and in only 7.8 conference minutes is averaging 43 points on 57% from the floor which is very good productivity in such a short time on the floor.

Missouri as a team
Missouri brings a relatively bad offense into the PMAC at 13th in the conference in offensive efficiency per KENPOM as a result of shooting poorly from 2 (42% which is last in conference) and also not a big threat from 3 at 30.8% but is mid-pack in conference. Their defense is also suspect at 11th in the conference in efficiency as they allow teams to shoot it decently well from 2 (51.6%) and 3 (33.8%) which ranked 11th in the conference in both stats. So is there anything to worry about? Well they turn teams over with the #2 steal % in the conference at 10.3% of opponents possessions ending with a steal, and they turn teams over on 21.4% of their possessions (2nd in conference) so we don’t want to get sloppy with the ball.

The Matchup
Missouri will present a height matchup issue inside for us with Nikko and Mitchell Smith at 6’10 each, so that will be ones to watch on offensive glass and the like. Outside of that, if Tilmon and Mark Smith are both out for Missouri, we definitely present a lot more issues for Missouri than they do for us. We are one of the best 2 point teams in the conference at 53.2%, and Missouri is pretty bad defending 2 point shots at allowing 51.6% from 2 point range. Missouri also fouls, a lot. They are 13th in the league allowing FT attempts per FGA. We are 2nd in the conference in offensive rebounding and Missouri is 11th in defending that. Flat out, Missouri isn’t representing much of a challenge to us on our home floor with 2 starters potentially out. That being said, even though Missouri isn’t good from 3 in conference play (30.8%), we let Vandy and Auburn shoot it all over us and we have GOT to defend the 3 point line for a change. A good way to let an inferior team beat you is turn the ball over, give up offensive glass and watch them shoot open 3’s. KENPOM has this as a comfortable win for LSU and I agree, I think we bounce back nicely here.

Projected LSU Starting 5
PF (6'6, 230) SO. Emmitt Williams - #5
PF (6'6, 240) SO. Darius Days - #0
SF (6'9, 235) FR. Trendon Watford - #2
SG (6'4, 205) SR. Skylar Mays - #4
PG (6'4, 205) SO. Javonte Smart - #1

Main rotational players
SF (6'5, 210) SR. Marlon Taylor - #14
SF (6'5, 225) rFR. Aundre Hyatt - #15

Kenpom's Prediction: LSU 79 Missouri 68

This post was edited on 2/11/20 at 10:10 pm