Below is each team's NET ranking and quadrant resumes. This is a quadrant 2 game for LSU against UF as they are just outside the Top 35 (vs. 36-75 home game is Quadrant 2). These results are as of 1/21/20.

#23 (14-4, 5-0 SEC) LSU
Quad 1 = 2-2
Quad 2 = 4-2
Quad 3 = 3-0
Quad 4 = 4-0

#39 (12-5, 4-1 SEC) Florida
Quad 1 = 1-2
Quad 2 = 5-3
Quad 3 = 1-0
Quad 4 = 5-0

LSU as of recent
Yet another win, has been the theme of SEC play so far as the Tigers stroll back into the PMAC at 5-0 in the conference. Another hotly contested SEC game, and the Tigers’ 12th straight SEC road win over the weekend at Ole Miss where a short bench on our end without Charles Manning and a red-hot Breein Tyree for Ole Miss wasn’t enough to stop the Tigers from pulling out the W 80-76 @ Ole Miss. This marks the 4th straight win for LSU by 4 points or less after struggling to win close games in OOC play losing 3 by just 2 points. Marlon Taylor was huge picking up for Darius Days who had a rough game fouling out in just 17 minutes, as Taylor gave 32 quality minutes dropping 13 points and grabbing 4 offensive rebounds with 2 blocks as well. We had no answer for Breein Tyree defensively, but we still were able to grit out the win getting good bench minutes from Hyatt as we stuck with a 7 man rotation.

Florida as of recent
There’s no doubt Florida came into SEC play a little below where they thought they would be. Many considered Florida the top team in the SEC coming into the season with who they returned and who they added, however, UF has really crushed teams they’ve played in the last week. Beating a short handed Ole Miss squad 71-55 and then crushing Auburn’s dreams 69-47. UF is playing like the team people thought they would be with transfer Kerry Blackshear really leading the charge now. They did have a strange loss on the road to Missouri, but outside of that, have looked good in SEC play and will come in to the PMAC extremely confident.

Florida projected starters
C (6'10, 223) FR. Omar Payne
PF (6'10, 241) SR. Kerry Blackshear
SF (6'5, 231) SO. Keyontae Johnson
SG (6'3, 207) SO. Noah Locke
PG (6'5, 193) SO. Andrew Nembhard

Omar Payne has recently taken over a starting role as Florida has shifted to 2 big lineup and Payne effectively is their center who doesn’t take any 3’s and protects the rim for them. In conference play Omar is averaging 23 minutes, 7 points, 6 rebounds (3 offensive) and 1.5 blocks per contest. His biggest weakness is shooting at the foul line as he is just 10 for 27 on the season from there. His SEC PER is 21.3 on the season which is very good. As a side note, this was a hotly contested recruiting battle for us against UF for Payne and UF did pull out as the home town school. He recently dominated Auburn with 19 points and 11 rebounds (7 offensive).

Kerry Blackshear is the name everyone should be familiar with as the biggest transfer this offseason. He is from the Orlando area so a transfer to Florida for his final season made a lot of sense. He is a very very tough big who really almost does it all. He is averaging 29.6 minutes, 16.2 points, 10 rebound and almost a block per game in SEC play. You have to guard him out beyond the arc as he shoots over 3 a game from there. His shooting percentage hasn’t been good in SEC play at just 38%, but on the entire season it’s up around 44%. His conference PER is 25.9 which is elite.

Keyontae Johnson spent last year as tough 4 man for Florida and this year is transitioning more towards a role for a 6’5 guy in being a very physical small forward. He is averaging 30 minuites, 11.4 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists and 1.6 steals per game in conference play. He doesn’t take many 3’s but hits them at a high rate so you can’t just leave him out there. I personally like this kid’s game a lot as he’s 58% from the floor in conference play so far. With some of the attention some other guys get, people often forget about Johnson and he’s a very good player that will make you pay. His conference PER is 24.2.

Noah Locke is a guy who will make it rain 3’s so long as you are not guarding him right in his face. In 5 conference games he’s 13 for 25 from 3 and on the season isn’t much worse. He’s averaging 33 minutes, 11 points and 2.5 boards a game in conference play and has a 16.5 PER in conference play.

Andrew Nembhard had a tough decision to make at the end of last year to go pro or not and he decided to come back and boy has it paid off. In 32 minutes a game in conference play, he’s averaging 14 points, 3 boards, 6 assists and 1.5 steals per game. He is so tough to defend as a 6’5 PG and you have to respect his 3 point shot even if it’s not great. He’s a tough matchup defensively as well with his length. His PER in conference play is 20.2.

Florida top bench players
SG (6'5, 185) FR. Scottie Lewis
PG (5’11, 176) FR. Ques Glover
CG (6'4, 172) FR. Tre Mann

White has shortened the bench a bit in conference play mostly playing 3 freshmen off it, but these are some pretty talented freshmen. Lewis was a 5-star out of high school and started most of the games this year before they decided to go big with Payne starting in conference play. In 25 minutes per game of conference play, Locke is averaging 9.6 points and 5 boards. Glover is a diminutive PG that is averaging 17 minutes per SEC contest with 5.4 points, 1.4 boards and an assist per contest. Mann is also a 5-star out of high school and in 14 minutes per SEC contest is averaging 3.6 points, 1 board and has struggled a bit at 6 for 16 from the floor.

Florida presents a lot of issues for us. First and foremost, their length with Payne and Blackshear in the lineup is going to put a lot of stress on “our” game of grabbing our own misses at a high rate. Secondly, it puts a lot of pressure on our 2 point offense as we love to live around the rim on offense, and with 2 6’10 guys in there most of the game, deters a lot of that play. Nembhard is a talented PG, Locke can kill you from 3 and Johnson is one of the toughest SOBs on the court you’ll see. Then you have what looks like a weakness with them relying on 3 freshmen off the bench, and then realize 2 of them were 5 stars. Mike White has every asset at his disposal to really have a special season.

If Wade has had 1 consistent thorn in his side since coming to Baton Rouge, it’s been Mike White’s UF teams. In 2018 we lost @ Florida by about 10. In 2019 we lost to Florida at home in overtime only to beat them by 1 on the road in overtime at their place later in the season…then we got them in the 1st round of the SEC tournament where we lost by 3. So Wade is just 1-3 against Mike White and UF. UF’s tough defense under White has presented its issues with our offense, and honestly I see something very similar happening in this game and believe for us to win, we will have to be efficient from 3. I think if we can hit 35%+ of our 3’s it gives us a chance to win. If we are miserable from 3, say something like 4 of 21, we have little shot in this one. Kenpom has this as a close win at home for us, but I think it will be extremely tough.

Projected LSU Starting 5
PF (6'6, 230) SO. Emmitt Williams - #5
PF (6'6, 240) SO. Darius Days - #0
SF (6'9, 235) FR. Trendon Watford - #2
SG (6'4, 205) SR. Skylar Mays - #4
PG (6'4, 205) SO. Javonte Smart - #1

Main rotational players
SF (6'5, 210) SR. Marlon Taylor - #14
SF (6'5, 225) rFR. Aundre Hyatt - #15

Kenpom's Prediction: LSU 74 Florida 71

This post was edited on 1/21/20 at 8:35 pm