Trump's position for 2020 is vastly stronger than he was in 2016

1. The incumbent advantage. By default, incumbents have an innate, build in advantage. People tend to vote for incumbents in all elections unless they have major compelling reasons not to. Politicians winning reelection is the norm, doesn't matter the party or which level of government it's on. Over the last century only twice has an elected President run for reelection and lost (Carter and Bush Sr, you have to discount LBJ and Ford as their original Presidencies came about it bizarre ways)

2. Fundraising. Trump has 4 years to raise funds for reelection and is already off to a very strong start. His opponents will all have ~2 years. Trump will also be able to spend all of his money on the general election and won't have to waste time and money on primaries (this is a part of the incumbent advantage)

3. All the big "gotcha" material on Trump was already used up in 2016. The women who accused him of various things, the Pussy Grabbing tape, etc. That's powerful ammunition that's already been spent. If people didn't care in 2016, they sure as hell aren't going to care in 2020.

4. The Republican establishment's support. The Republican establishment's support of Trump in 2016 was tepid at best, and intentionally undermining at worst. From major party officials refusing to endorse him (or even telling him to quit) to their constant waffling on everything. The Republican party 100% expected Trump to lose and was hedging their bets the entire time. Their support of him in 2020 will certainly be stronger than it was the first time around.

5. The doom and gloom fear mongering attacks won't be valid anymore. Assuming by time the 2020 election rolls around and the economy is strong and there haven't been any major terrorists attacks or anything else bad occurs, the doom and gloom predictions of the Dems will be hollow. One of their major lines of attack in 2016 was that Trump would completely destroy everything. If things are pretty good after 4 years of Trump, nobody will expect much different the next 4 years.


All this boils down to one simple inevitability, if the economy is strong going into the 2020 election, Trump will almost certainly win reelection. Only a noticeable economic downturn is typically enough to unseat a sitting President.