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Trump's position for 2020 is vastly stronger than he was in 2016
Posted on 9/26/17 at 6:46 pm
Posted on 9/26/17 at 6:46 pm
1. The incumbent advantage. By default, incumbents have an innate, build in advantage. People tend to vote for incumbents in all elections unless they have major compelling reasons not to. Politicians winning reelection is the norm, doesn't matter the party or which level of government it's on. Over the last century only twice has an elected President run for reelection and lost (Carter and Bush Sr, you have to discount LBJ and Ford as their original Presidencies came about it bizarre ways)
2. Fundraising. Trump has 4 years to raise funds for reelection and is already off to a very strong start. His opponents will all have ~2 years. Trump will also be able to spend all of his money on the general election and won't have to waste time and money on primaries (this is a part of the incumbent advantage)
3. All the big "gotcha" material on Trump was already used up in 2016. The women who accused him of various things, the Pussy Grabbing tape, etc. That's powerful ammunition that's already been spent. If people didn't care in 2016, they sure as hell aren't going to care in 2020.
4. The Republican establishment's support. The Republican establishment's support of Trump in 2016 was tepid at best, and intentionally undermining at worst. From major party officials refusing to endorse him (or even telling him to quit) to their constant waffling on everything. The Republican party 100% expected Trump to lose and was hedging their bets the entire time. Their support of him in 2020 will certainly be stronger than it was the first time around.
5. The doom and gloom fear mongering attacks won't be valid anymore. Assuming by time the 2020 election rolls around and the economy is strong and there haven't been any major terrorists attacks or anything else bad occurs, the doom and gloom predictions of the Dems will be hollow. One of their major lines of attack in 2016 was that Trump would completely destroy everything. If things are pretty good after 4 years of Trump, nobody will expect much different the next 4 years.
All this boils down to one simple inevitability, if the economy is strong going into the 2020 election, Trump will almost certainly win reelection. Only a noticeable economic downturn is typically enough to unseat a sitting President.
2. Fundraising. Trump has 4 years to raise funds for reelection and is already off to a very strong start. His opponents will all have ~2 years. Trump will also be able to spend all of his money on the general election and won't have to waste time and money on primaries (this is a part of the incumbent advantage)
3. All the big "gotcha" material on Trump was already used up in 2016. The women who accused him of various things, the Pussy Grabbing tape, etc. That's powerful ammunition that's already been spent. If people didn't care in 2016, they sure as hell aren't going to care in 2020.
4. The Republican establishment's support. The Republican establishment's support of Trump in 2016 was tepid at best, and intentionally undermining at worst. From major party officials refusing to endorse him (or even telling him to quit) to their constant waffling on everything. The Republican party 100% expected Trump to lose and was hedging their bets the entire time. Their support of him in 2020 will certainly be stronger than it was the first time around.
5. The doom and gloom fear mongering attacks won't be valid anymore. Assuming by time the 2020 election rolls around and the economy is strong and there haven't been any major terrorists attacks or anything else bad occurs, the doom and gloom predictions of the Dems will be hollow. One of their major lines of attack in 2016 was that Trump would completely destroy everything. If things are pretty good after 4 years of Trump, nobody will expect much different the next 4 years.
All this boils down to one simple inevitability, if the economy is strong going into the 2020 election, Trump will almost certainly win reelection. Only a noticeable economic downturn is typically enough to unseat a sitting President.
This post was edited on 9/27/17 at 8:51 am
Posted on 9/26/17 at 6:49 pm to IAmReality
6) The Dem candidate will be Kamala Harris
Posted on 9/26/17 at 6:51 pm to TheXman
Let's hope so. Would be a landslide.
Posted on 9/26/17 at 6:52 pm to IAmReality
The meltdown by the left when he wins 2020 will be the biggest the world has ever seen. They will have tried everything they possibly can to destroy him for 4 years only to see it fail
Posted on 9/26/17 at 6:52 pm to IAmReality
The left's response to Trump's victory was the greatest PR gift they could have ever given him.
They showed the nation the nasty vile ugly wolf in supposed comfortable, friendly and soft sheep's clothing.
But Trump will never have it easy. They will do anything, everything and treacherous and treasonous to poison the well to take back the office. They don't give a crap about America - they give a crap about power.
People this deranged are always going to be a major problem.
They showed the nation the nasty vile ugly wolf in supposed comfortable, friendly and soft sheep's clothing.
But Trump will never have it easy. They will do anything, everything and treacherous and treasonous to poison the well to take back the office. They don't give a crap about America - they give a crap about power.
People this deranged are always going to be a major problem.
Posted on 9/26/17 at 6:52 pm to IAmReality
Why do you think he will even want to run? He will be like 76 or something. That's OLD to be President. Why would he waste the last few years while he's still healthy enough to enjoy anything?
Posted on 9/26/17 at 6:52 pm to TheXman
quote:Would be absolutely brutal.
Kamala Harris
No way they do that.
Posted on 9/26/17 at 6:54 pm to Pelican fan99
quote:
The meltdown by the left when he wins 2020 will be the biggest the world has ever seen. They will have tried everything they possibly can to destroy him for 4 years only to see it fail
It will be even better when Based Barron wins in 2048, following Don Jr, Eric and a hologram of Pepe the Frog.
Posted on 9/26/17 at 6:55 pm to Scruffy
Putting forth a minority for the sake of being a minority would be a mistake. The Dems have overestimated the "Obama coalition", believing Obama's status drove people to the polls. In reality, and without actually getting into his politics, Obama was a great politician in that first run. He was a left field candidate in 2007 and worked his arse off in places like Iowa to wrestle the nomination from Hillary and beat the GOP. He never really relied on his status as a black man like Hillary relied on being a woman.
This post was edited on 9/26/17 at 6:55 pm
Posted on 9/26/17 at 6:56 pm to Toddy
quote:
Why do you think he will even want to run? He will be like 76 or something. That's OLD to be President. Why would he waste the last few years while he's still healthy enough to enjoy anything?
He will do it just to piss you off.
Posted on 9/26/17 at 7:01 pm to IAmReality
Honestly who knows, if almost half the country didn't supposedly vote.
Posted on 9/26/17 at 7:03 pm to StraightCashHomey21
No matter what he has over 3 more years to MAGA
Posted on 9/26/17 at 7:03 pm to Toddy
quote:
Why do you think he will even want to run? He will be like 76 or something. That's OLD to be President. Why would he waste the last few years while he's still healthy enough to enjoy anything?
You say that while hoping old asses Bernie, Biden, or Hillary run in 2020.
Posted on 9/26/17 at 7:03 pm to NIH
quote:Not only that, but their absolute want to have the first female as president is a big deal to the Democrats.
Putting forth a minority for the sake of being a minority would be a mistake.
Harris is a radical progressive and would be a loss.
I would expect Warren to run in 2024. Not sure if she wants to expend political capital in 2020 for something that wouldn't be a definite.
Unless the GOP pulls someone out of their arse, I expect Warren to run away with 2024.
Posted on 9/26/17 at 7:09 pm to IAmReality
He is...but American unity is not. That matters as much as elections...sooner or later.
Posted on 9/26/17 at 7:11 pm to Scruffy
Warren is more nails on a chalk board than Hillary. She looks like a mean elementary school principal, I'm thinking Nikki Haley takes 2024.
This post was edited on 9/26/17 at 7:12 pm
Posted on 9/26/17 at 7:11 pm to Scruffy
quote:
Unless the GOP pulls someone out of their arse, I expect Warren to run away with 2024.
She's insane and would be 75 in 2024. She's way older than people think she is. She seems younger because she hasn't been around as long as some politicians.
Warren will run in 2020 because in her mind the Dems will win in 2020. That means she wouldn't be able to run in 2024 and by 2028 she'd be 79 or dead. She'll want to be the one who wins in 2020. But she won't win, though.
Posted on 9/26/17 at 7:13 pm to Toddy
quote:
Toddy
You know how I know you're scared and grasping for straws?
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