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re: Let's discuss the Monty Hall problem (probabilities, odds)
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:37 am to TheArrogantCorndog
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:37 am to TheArrogantCorndog
quote:
and it isn't the one you picked,
This is always a hangup. Why couldn't it be the door you picked and he is luring you away.
1
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:44 am to fightin tigers
You have a 1/3 chance of being right from the outset... just because he showed you a goat, doesn't change those odds, you still have a 1/3 chance of being right... 3 doors, and you picked one... the goat increases the odds of the last door to 2/3 by negating the goat's door to zero
He adds a value input to the remaining door, by stripping away the value of the goat's door... your initial door is still at 1/3 because you picked it with no added value input
You have a 1/3 chance of being right from the start, and a 2/3 chance of being right if you switch
They are counting on people being either too arrogant or too uncomfortable to change
He adds a value input to the remaining door, by stripping away the value of the goat's door... your initial door is still at 1/3 because you picked it with no added value input
You have a 1/3 chance of being right from the start, and a 2/3 chance of being right if you switch
They are counting on people being either too arrogant or too uncomfortable to change
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