re: Hot Takes: Predict the Eastern Conference Finals

This series is obviously unique for a conference finals in that Cleveland will be favored in every game. The same could very likely be said for the GS/SA series in the West.

Right now, the series price for Cleveland -2.5 games is -115. I've also seen -120.

Let's say we lay 1,150 to win 1,000 on Cleveland -2.5 games.

Obviously, if the series is 2-2 going back to Boston for Game 5, you lose.

However, let's say it goes back to Boston and the Cavs are up 3-1. Boston, though at home, will be an underdog in that game. Probably similar to the spread in tonight's game. Now, you lay $1,000 on Boston ML, probably at a price around +150.

At this point...

Worst case, Cleveland wins game 5 and you break even.
Better case, Boston wins game 5, and you are up $350 (1,500-1,150).
Best case, Cavs sweep and you're up $1,000.


Obviously, the real worst case is that the series is 2-2 going back to Boston, and you lose $1,150.

I'm just trying to look at this from a lot of different angles. In the end, it's a lot of ins and outs to win just a little bit of money. But I like thinking about things like this.